Food Outlook is published by the Trade and Market Division of FAO under Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS). It is a biannual publication focusing on developments affecting global food and feed markets. Each report provides comprehensive assessments and short term forecasts for production, utilization, trade, stocks and prices on a commodity by commodity basis and includes feature articles on topical issues. Food Outlook maintains a close synergy with...

Food commodity markets are set to be more balanced in 2013/14, in particular cereals. The global food import bill is forecast to reach USD 1.09 trillion in 2013, 13 percent below the record of 2011 but close to the 2012 estimate, as higher bills for fish and livestock products are anticipated to offset lower expenditures on most other commodities, especially sugar.

Food prices have averaged 8 percent lower during the first ten months of 2012 compared to the same period last year. Considerably lower international prices and freights, together with less cereal purchases are predicted to reduce global expenditures on imported foodstuffs. The 2012 forecast for global food import bills is set at USD 1.14 trillion, 10 percent lower than the record which was set last year.

Global food prices seem to have stabilized at a relatively high level of around 214 points as measured by the FAO Food Price Index. Although the outlook for the second half of this year and into the next indicates generally improved supplies, demand remains strong and the global food import bill in 2012 is expected to fall only slightly from the 2011 record.

In spite of improved supply prospects and weakening demand, agricultural commodity market conditions remain fairly tight, which is the major factor underpinning prices. Production forecasts for nearly all key food crops in 2011 have risen steadily since the previous report in June. For cereals, while the forecast for ending stocks in 2012 has also been revised up significantly, larger anticipated inventories reflect not only improved production prospects but also expectations...

Halfway into this turbulent year and with new marketing seasons for major food crops commencing soon, this is a critical time to evaluate current developments in global food markets and to draw the early outlook for 2011/12. In a remarkable turn of events, earlier prospects for more comfortable supply situations and stable prices gave way to increasingly worrisome outlooks and to an escalation of international prices to levels not seen...

International prices of most agricultural commodities have increased in recent months, some sharply. The FAO Food Price index has gained 34 points since the previous Food Outlook report in June, averaging 197 points in October, only 16 points short from its peak in June 2008. The upward movements of prices were connected with several factors, the most important of which were a worsening of the outlook for crops in key...

As this report goes to print, concerns over macroeconomic prospects and global financial markets are once more gaining the headlines. Changes in the economic environment, including continuing fluctuations in exchange rates and high unpredictability have a strong influence on agricultural commodity markets. From the supply side, however, the 2008-2009 price boom spurred plantings and production of many food crops, resulting in a recovery in inventories and boosting stocks-to-use ratios, a...

Recent developments in world agricultural markets for basic food commodities have raised concern about a possible return to another round of high prices. In general, however, the difficulties facing markets today are different from those experienced during the 2007/08 food price surge. The FAO Food Price Index, a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a food basket composed of cereals, oilseeds, dairy, meat and sugar, has risen...

In spite of strong gains in recent weeks, international prices of most agricultural commodities have fallen in 2009 from their 2008 heights, an indication that many markets are slowly returning into balance, in sharp contrast to what was witnessed this time last year. The apparent easing of market conditions is reflected in the benchmark FAO Food Price Index, which has fallen by one-third from last June’s peak.