FAO’s latest cereal production forecast for 2011 stands at 2 302 million tonnes, nearly 3 percent higher than in 2010, but 13 million tonnes lower than the forecast published in Food Outlook on 7 June. At this revised level, world cereal production would now be slightly below overall utilization, leading to a further decline in world stocks. The revision largely reflects a downward adjustment to this year’s official maize production...

FAO’s first forecast for world wheat production in 2011 stands at 676 million tonnes, 3.4 percent up from 2010. This level of production would still be below the bumper harvests of 2008 and 2009. International grain prices remained volatile in the first three weeks of March. The cereal import volume in LIFDCs as a group is anticipated to decline in 2010/11 due to increased production. However, their import bill is...

FAO’s latest estimate of the world cereal production in 2010 stands at 2 229 million tonnes, slightly more than the previous forecast in November but still 1.4 percent down from the previous year. Most of the decline is among the major exporting countries while in the Low-Income Food-Deficit countries (LIFDC), cereal output is forecast to increase by 2.5 percent, marking a third consecutive year of sustained growth. The largest increase...

International prices of grain have surged since the beginning of July in response to drought-reduced crops in CIS exporting countries and a subsequent decision by the Russian Federation to ban exports. In September wheat prices were 60 to 80 percent higher than at the beginning of the season in July. However, prices are still one-third below their peaks in 2008. In the same period, the price of maize increased by about...

FAO’s first forecast for world cereal production in 2010 is 2 286 million tonnes, 1.5 percent up from last year and similar to the record level of 2008. However, with some major crops yet to be planted, much will depend on climatic conditions in the coming months. In Low-Income Food-Deficit countries, early prospects for the 2010 crops are mixed. In Southern Africa, smaller maize outputs are anticipated in several countries....

Latest information confirms a further improvement in global cereal supply situation in the current 2009/10 marketing year. Another aboveaverage production in 2009 should exceed consumption by a significant margin and total cereal inventories are forecast to climb to an 8-year high. In several Sahelian and Eastern Africa countries, however, cereal and pasture production declined sharply and a difficult food security situation is anticipated this year in parts of Niger, Chad...

FAO’s latest forecast confirms a good 2009 world cereal production, slightly below last year’s record level, which coupled with large carryover stocks from the previous season have resulted in ample market supplies. In the group of 77 Low-Income Food-Deficit countries the 2009 aggregate cereal production is forecast marginally below last year’s record level. A sharp reduction in India’s rice crop is anticipated but generally good crops are estimated elsewhere. International...

Domestic food prices in developing countries mostly remain much higher than before the soaring food price crisis despite a sharp decline in international prices since their peaks in 2008. This situation continues to give rise to concern for the food security of low-income vulnerable populations who spend a large share of their incomes on food. FAO’s latest forecast points to a 3.4 percent reduction in world cereal production in 2009, mostly...

High food prices persist in developing countries despite an improved global cereal supply situation and sharp decline in international prices. This is affecting access to food of large numbers of low-income vulnerable populations. A recent analysis of domestic food prices for 58 developing countries shows that latest prices are higher than a year earlier in 78 percent of the cases, and in 43 percent of the cases are higher than...

Early indications point to a reduction in global cereal output in 2009 from the previous year’s record. Smaller plantings and/or adverse weather look likely to bring grain production down in most of the world’s major producers. In Low-Income Food-Deficit countries, prospects for the early 2009 cereal crops point to a lower output. Good crops are expected in North Africa. Although the early outlook has improved in southern Africa a lower...