The GIEWS Updates are issued by FAO’s Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) from mid-2004. The updates focus on developing anomalous conditions aimed at providing early warnings, as well as latest and more elaborate information than other GIEWS regular reports on the food security situation of countries, at both national and sub-national levels.

FAO’s latest forecast of global cereal production in 2004 is 1 956 million tonnes, a substantial increase from the previous year. However, despite a modest expected rise in utilization, the new 2004/05 marketing season may lead to a fifth consecutive annual drawdown of global cereal stocks. FAO’s first forecast of global cereal trade in 2004/05 stands at 229.7 million tonnes, 3 percent down from the previous year. The decline mostly reflects,...

An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited Sri Lanka from 7–26 March 2004 to assess the 2003/04 Maha crop harvest, forecast 2004 Yala production, and estimate cereal import requirements for the 2004 marketing year January/December), including anticipated commercial imports and unmet gaps compared to historical consumption levels.

A new European Union (EU) policy regime has been announced for cotton for introduction in 2005. The orientation is towards a scheme which includes a mix of coupled and decoupled measures, i.e., a mix of non trade-distorting (green box) and less trade-distorting (blue box) forms of farm support. These measures include a fully decoupled single farm payment (income aid) and an area payment (production aid). The aim of the present study...

World cereal production is forecast to increase in 2004 to 2 131 million tonnes, which would be some 2 percent up from last year and 3 percent above the average of the past five years. The bulk of the increase is expected in wheat, although rice output is also seen to rise significantly. By contrast, production of coarse grains is forecast to decrease marginally. Global cereal utilization is anticipated to...

In response to a request from the Government of Côte d’Ivoire, FAO and WFP undertook a Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission (CSFAM) to Côte d’Ivoire from 15 November to 12 December 2003. The purpose of the Mission was to analyse the food supply situation in the prevailing socio-economic context, assess existing marketing arrangements for major crops, appraise crop growing conditions in 2003, prepare a supply/demand balance for staple foods...

The paper is aimed at providing evidence on price transmission in a number of agricultural markets, both per se and in support of analytical efforts in the area of agricultural trade policy analysis. Work is based on a price database collected from various sources in sixteen countries - Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan, Senegal, Thailand, Turkey, Uganda, and Uruguay - primarily for basic...

An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited southern Sudan from 9 to 30 October 2003 and northern Sudan from 8 November to 1 December 2003 in order to estimate cereal production and food supply and assess food aid needs from the current harvest of mainly sorghum and millet and to make an early forecast of wheat production in 2004 from areas prepared for planting. Based on these estimates...

An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited Ethiopia from 5 November to 6 December 2003 to estimate the meher season cereal and pulse production, forecast the 2004 belg season production, assess the overall food supply situation and estimate grain import requirements, including food aid needs, for the 2004 marketing year. Accompanied by experts from the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and split into six teams, the Mission visited all...

The world market for certified organic citrus (fresh and juice) is presently small and production accounts for less than 1 percent of global citrus production. The main markets are the European Community and the United States, which are also the world’s largest two producers. Consumption of organic citrus is expected to rise steadily in developed countries in the coming years, providing interesting export opportunities.