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Issue paper

Wheat Production and Regional Food Security in CIS: The Case of Belarus, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Policy Studies on Rural Transition No. 2016-1

The main objective of the study is to produce critical projections of domestic wheat production to 2024 for Belarus, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. This will allow to answer the key question as to the limits of wheat production increases in the three countries. The main methodology of the study lies in a critical appraisal of the drivers of demand and supply for wheat in Belarus, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

The first step in understanding the drivers of wheat demand and supply in these countries is to comprehend the farming system that produces wheat in these three countries. These countries are often cited as the least reformed economies of the Eurasian region. After explaining the implications of the lack of reform in agriculture, the study reviews the historical trends in wheat utilization and presents forecasts of wheat demand in Belarus, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan to 2024. Policies and natural resource constraints underlying wheat supply projections are also described.

Europe & Central Asia