Forecast-based Financing (FbF) Webinar III: From Early Warning to Early Action in Mongolia - Bracing for the cold to protect livestock and livelihoods

Forecast-based Financing (FbF) Webinar III: From Early Warning to Early Action in Mongolia - Bracing for the cold to protect livestock and livelihoods


Wednesday 18 July 2018  -  10.00-11.30 CEST (UTC/GMT+2) | 16:00-17:30 ULAT (UTC/GMT+8) 



  • Jigjidpurev Sukhbaatar, Livestock Emergency Projects Coordinator and Early Warning Early Action focal point, FAO Mongolia
  • Niccolò Lombardi, Early Warning Early Action Specialist, FAO
  • Clemens Gros, Monitoring and Evaluation Adviser, Red Cross Climate Centre
  • Munguntuya Sharavnyambuu, Disaster management programme leader, Mongolia Red Cross Society


  • Dunja Dujanovic, Technical Officer, Early Warning Early Action, FAO

Click here to register to the webinar.

Acting early before a disaster is critical: it can save lives and protect livelihoods from the immediate shocks as well as protecting longer term development gains by increasing the resilience of local communities over time. A growing body of evidence also supports the cost effectiveness of this approach. A recent contribution to this repository of knowledge is study of the 2017/2018 localized dzud event in Mongolia, where FAO and the Mongolian Red Cross Society implemented early actions to protect herder livelihoods.

The dzud is the Mongolian term for a harsh and cold winter season, characterized by heavy snowfall and bitter temperatures with some areas reaching -50 degrees. Commonly, these harsh winter periods are preceded by a dry summer period, which can compromise pasture availability and herders ability to collect enough hay for their stores. If the winter is severe, the animals must rely on stores of food rather than grazing. When the supplies run out, the animals get weaker until they freeze or starve to death. Such events are known to wipe out millions of heads of livestock, driving the poorer households into destitution and instigating rural-to-urban migration, as herders search for an alternative income source.

The webinar aims to:

  • Provide an overview of the approach taken by FAO’s Early Warning Early Action (EWEA) and Mongolia Red Cross Society’s Forecast-based Financing (FbF) in Mongolia to act early to protect the most at risk and safeguard livestock in the face of dzud;
  • Present the results of the Return-on-Investment analysis conducted to quantify the costs and benefits of acting early in Mongolia;
  • Present the impact evaluation analysis that describes the reduction of risks achieved by the Forecast-based Financing intervention;
  • Discuss the lessons learned from the case of Mongolia, also in light of the risks flagged in FAO’s Early Warning Early Action Report (July-September 2018).


Agenda of the event:

  • Welcome remarks (5 minutes): Introduction to panel, presenters and objectives of webinars
  • Presentations (45 minutes): Overview of the risks flagged in FAO's Early Warning Early Action Report (July-September 2018); FAO Early Action and MRCS’s FbF Projects in Mongolia: objectives, timeline, implementation; Results of the return on investment (ROI) analysis and Impact Evaluation of early actions for dzud in Mongolia
  • Questions and discussion (30 minutes)
  • Wrap-up (5 minutes)

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