FAO warns Somalia to prepare now for potential El Niño-linked flooding later in 2026

The Food and Agriculture Organization in Somalia has warned that the country should brace itself for the possibility of a continued dry period until October, followed by an elevated risk of extensive flooding during the October–December Deyr season associated with a likely El Niño event.

According to FAO’s Somalia Water and Land Information Management unit (SWALIM), the immediate risk of major riverine flooding during the June–September period is reduced compared with earlier concerns.

This is due to limited rainfall observed so far during the Gu season, combined with forecasts indicating a likelihood of El Niño-driven below-normal June-September Kiremt rainfall over the Ethiopian highlands during the coming months.

Bethwell Mutai, Lead Meteorologist for FAO-SWALIM, said that while levels particularly along the Shabelle River remain an area to monitor closely, the current short-term flood concern linked to April-June Gu rainfall is gradually receding.

“I want to emphasize that Somalia’s volatile, fast-moving and unpredictable climatic patterns leave us with no room for complacency,” Dr Mutai said. “It does not in the least reduce the need for preparedness. On the contrary, it gives us a critical preparedness window of more than three months.”

Citing IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre’s just released climate outlook, Dr Mutai said the main El Niño-linked flood concern for Somalia is expected from the start of the Deyr season, from October to December.

“Current ENSO forecasts indicate a greater than 90 percent likelihood of El Niño conditions developing during the October–December 2026 Deyr season,” he said.

“If this materializes, above-normal Deyr rainfall across the region could substantially increase the likelihood of significant riverine and flash flooding, particularly along the Juba and Shabelle river basins and other flood-prone areas.

“This risk would be further amplified if a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) also develops (characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean relative to the eastern Indian Ocean), as the combined influence of El Niño and a positive IOD is often associated with enhanced rainfall over the Horn of Africa, increasing the likelihood of widespread flooding as was witnessed in 2023 and during the devastating floods of 1997.”

Dr Mutai said that against this backdrop it is imperative that government institutions, donors and humanitarian partners use the coming months to plan accordingly and activate anticipatory action measures.

In particular FAO recommends that priority actions should include:

• updating riverine flood preparedness and evacuation plans;
• inspecting and repairing weak embankments along the Juba and Shabelle rivers;
• identifying and preparing safe higher-ground locations;
• pre-positioning critical supplies in flood-prone districts;
• agreeing financing and activation arrangements before the Deyr season;
• strengthening community early warning and communication systems; and,
• system-wide activation and coordination under Government leadership

“In summary, while the June-September Hagaa season river flood threat has eased, this should not be interpreted as a reduced overall flood risk for 2026,” Dr Mutai said.

“The Deyr season remains the main period of concern, and preparedness should begin now, not when the rains start.”