The Japanese economy has been stagnant over the years and real growth of GDP for the fiscal 1997 ending March 1998 is expected to be less than one percent. The slow growth is attributable mainly to lingering consumer spending caused by the increase in consumption tax from three percent to five percent beginning April 1997, repealing of income-tax reduction and a hike in social security payments.
To revitalize the stagnant economy, the Government announced late last year that it would provide a onetime two trillion yen (US$16 billion) income tax rebate by the end of March 1998, and other packages to stabilise financial systems.
As to the real GDP for the fiscal year 1998 (ending March 1999), the Government projected 1.9 percent real growth, marking the second straight fiscal year of the lowest GDP growth target since it began making the predictions in fiscal year 1957. Meanwhile, major think-tanks' forecasts averaged 0.9 percent.
•Production of paper and paperboard in 1997 increased by 3.4 percent over 1996 to 31 023 000 tons and shipment was up 3.1 percent to 30 812 000 tons.
•From the latter half of last year to this year, there were and will be new capacity additions of 1.5 million tons of printing/communication paper, 600 000 tons of newsprint and 150 000 tons of containerboard. However, there are no new plans for additional expansion at the moment and the capacity will not increase in the foreseeable future except for those under construction.
•Operating rate for paper machines was 94.3 percent and for paperboard was 93.3 percent with the overall operating rate for paper and paperboard machines combined standing at about 93.9 percent.
•Reflecting the recessionary climate of the economy, demand for paper and paperboard in general was rather weak except for printing/communication paper and facial tissue.
Production and shipment of paper and paperboard in 1996 (1000 tons)
|
|
Production 97/96 |
% |
Shipment 97/96 |
% |
|
Newsprint Printing and communication Wrapping Hygienic Others |
3 192 11 115 1 108 1 721 1 141 |
1.7 2.8 2.0 4.4 5.4 |
3 187 11 039 1 101 1 710 1 139 |
1.7 @ 2.9 2.2 4.5 4.6 |
|
Total paper |
18 277 |
2.9 |
18 176 |
2.9 |
|
Containerboard Folding carton Other |
9 426 2 235 1 087 |
4.2 4.0 3.7 |
9 341 2 219 1 076 |
3.5 2.8 3.1 |
|
Total paperboard |
12 748 |
4.1 |
12 636 |
3.4 |
|
Total paper and board |
31 024 |
3.4 |
30 812 |
3.1 |
In 1997, exports were up 36.4 percent over 1996 while imports declined by 15.5 percent mainly due to the weakened yen against the US dollar. In fact, the exchange rate was around 111 yen to the dollar in June 1997 but dropped to 130 yen at the end of the year.
Import and export of paper and paperboard in 1997 (Jan-Nov. 1000 tons)
|
|
Import |
Export |
||
|
|
Tonnage |
% change |
Tonnage |
% change |
|
Paper Paperboard |
992 238 |
- 19.5 6.1 |
611 269 |
41.0 26.9 |
|
Total |
1 230 |
- 15.5 |
880 |
36.4 |
a) Wastepaper
The wastepaper utilization rate during the January to November period reached 54 percent.
The Japan Paper Association has a target to boost the utilization rate of wastepaper up to 56% in the year 2000. At the moment, wastepaper is oversupplied as a result of a campaign across the country to establish a recycle-oriented society.
Consumption of wastepaper in 1997 (Jan.-Nov. 1000 tons)
|
|
Tonnage |
% change |
|
For paper For paperboard |
4 175 10 970 |
1.8 4.7 |
|
For total paper and paperboard |
15 146 |
3.8 |
b) Woodpulp
Production of woodpulp in 1997 (1000 tons)
|
|
Tonnage |
% change |
|
Softwood bleached kraft Hardwood bleached kraft Unbleached kraft |
1 318 6 534 1 623 |
- 0.2 5.3 0.5 |
|
Total (including others) |
11 364 |
2.7 |
Import of woodpulp in 1997 (Jan.- Nov. 1000 tons)
|
|
Tonnage |
% change |
|
Softwood bleached kraft Hardwood bleached kraft Unbleached kraft |
1 226 1 144 112 |
0.6 1.5 4.8 |
|
Total (including others) |
3 016 |
1.1 |
c) Pulpwood consumption in 1997 (1000 m3)
|
|
Tonnage |
% change |
|
Softwood, domestic Imports Total |
8 726 7 394 16 119 |
- 3.1 3.3 0.3 |
|
Hardwood, domestic Imports Total |
4 002 18 177 22 178 |
- 2.4 5.4 3.9 |
|
Total softwood and hardwood |
38 298 |
2.1 |
Despite the yen depreciation, imports continued to increase, and last year they shared two-thirds of total pulpwood consumption. The Japanese paper industry has been promoting overseas plantations to meet the future need for pulpwood.
•Sales of 20 major paper companies in the fiscal year 1997 ending March 1998 are expected to increase only slightly by 0.3 percent over fiscal year 1996 to 3 439 billion yen (US$28 billion) and recurring profits will be down 17.3 percent to 126 billion yen (US$1 billion).
•In October 1997, Nihon Shigyo and Jujo Paperboard merged to become Nihon Paperboard, the second largest producer of paperboard in Japan.
To deal with the global warming issue, the Japan Paper Association adopted a target as an industry to cut down the energy consumption per ton of products to ten percent below 1990 levels by the year 2010.
The Government is taking measures for sustainability in accordance with the Basic Plan for Forestry Resources designed by the Forestry Agency in 1996. The plan aims at promoting forest stewardship in view of the varied ecology of the forest and establishing a system for sustainable development.
The Government together with the industry and academia is making efforts directed toward sustainable forest management in such matters as:
•As a member country of the Montreal Process, Japan is making standards and criteria for sustainable management in the temperate and boreal forest,
•From the perspective of sustainable forest management, Japan is revising its systems for planning forestry management,
•An international workshop is being planned to discuss sustainable management with those who work at the logging sites,
•As a step to respond to the above aims, the Japan Overseas Plantation Centre for Pulpwood, a non-profit organization to promote overseas plantations, is to be formed shortly, thereby contributing to materializing sustainable forest management and maintaining ecological diversity.
With respect to certification, specific systems are yet to be seen as Japanese forests have been basically under sustainable management and most of the private forests are owned by small individual owners. In addition, Japan depends heavily on the import of wood. However, we are closely watching the overseas movement in this regard and participating in the ISO14000 series and TC207. In 1998, a guideline for certification will be planned with Government support.
Demand for wood in 1997 is expected to have decreased from the level of the previous year due to the flagging economy. While demand for pulpwood is estimated to have increased by 2 percent as a result of increased production of pulp, the increased demand was covered mostly by imports.
