The GDP growth rate in Thailand has continually increased during the years 1993, 1994, 1995 and 1996 by 8.3 percent, 8.7 percent, 8.6 percent and 6.4 percent, respectively. At the end of 1995, Government policy deliberately slowed down the GDP growth rate to a suitable level in order to reduce the pressure of both inflation and loss in current account, and this financial policy was particularly strict from 1995 through 1996.
In 1997, the GDP of Thailand was approximately zero growth, shrinking from 1996 as a result of the economic crisis reducing domestic consumption and private investment. The growth of the manufacturing sector sank by 0.6 percent in 1997, reduced from 7.3 percent in 1996, while the growth of the export sector increased from -1.9 percent in 1996 to 3.2 percent in 1997.
|
Growth Sector |
Average Growth Rate (%) |
Actual Growth Rate (%)2 |
|||||
|
1987-19911 |
1992 |
1993 |
1994 |
1995 |
1996 |
Est. 19973 |
|
|
GDP Agriculture Manufacturing Export Pulp & paper industry |
10.8 3.4 13.9 24.6 15.5 |
8.1 6.0 11.3 13.2 12.4 |
8.3 -1.9 11.1 13.0 16.3 |
8.7 5.5 9.3 21.3 16.1 |
8.6 3.0 11.0 23.6 7.2 |
6.4 3.0 7.3 -1.9 13.5 |
0.6 2.2 0.6 3.2 5.0 |
Remarks : 1 = 6th National Economic Plan
2 = 7th National Economic Plan
3 = Bank of Thailand
The growth rate of the pulp and paper industry decreased from 13.5 percent in 1996 to 5.0 percent in 1997. The growth rate of the pulp and paper industry in Thailand has dropped significantly as a result of the change in world pulp and paper prices, as well as the economic recession in Thailand in 1997.
Pulp
In 1997 the total annual production capacity for short fibre pulp remained constant. The existing six pulp mills, namely Phoenix Pulp and Paper Public Company Limited, Advance Agro Public Company Limited, Panjapol Paper Industry Public Company Limited, The Siam Pulp and Paper Public Company Limited, Siam Cellulose Co. Ltd. and Bang Pa-in Pulp and Paper Mill still maintained their capacities of 210 000, 175 000, 110 000, 68 000, 60 000 and 3 000 air-dry tons per annum, respectively.
Unit: 1000 tons
|
Company |
Pulp Production Capacity |
|
|
|
1996 |
1997 |
|
Phoenix Pulp and Paper |
210 |
210 |
|
Advance Agro |
175 |
175 |
|
Panjapol Pulp Industry |
110 |
110 |
|
Siam Pulp and Paper |
68 |
68 |
|
Siam Cellulose |
60 |
60 |
|
Bang Pa-in Pulp and Paper Mill |
3 |
3 |
|
Total |
626 |
626 |
Paper
In 1997 there were 47 paper mills with a combined annual capacity of 3 236 000 tons, a 13.9 percent increase compared to the 2 842 000 tons in 1996 which included the new pulp and paper mill, namely Advance Agro Public Company Limited with 470 000 tons per annum.
Total paper capacities in 1997 can be categorized into 1 804 000 tons for kraft paper, 883 000 tons for printing and writing paper, 217 000 tons for paperboard, 120 000 tons for newsprint paper, 132 000 tons for household and sanitary paper and 80 000 tons for gypsum plaster board liners (other papers).
|
|
Paper Capacity |
||
|
|
1996 |
1997 |
|
|
|
1000 tons |
1000 tons |
% |
|
Kraft paper |
1 625 |
1 804 |
56 |
|
Printing and writing paper |
631 |
883 |
27 |
|
Paperboard |
264 |
217 |
7 |
|
Household and sanitary paper |
132 |
132 |
4 |
|
Newsprint |
110 |
120 |
4 |
|
Other papers |
80 |
80 |
2 |
|
Total |
2 842 |
3 236 |
100 |
Pulp and wastepaper
In 1997 the total demand for raw material fibre in Thailand was 2 428 000 tons, a 6.7 percent increase over 1996. Of this amount, 12 percent, or 304 000 tons, was long-fibre pulp, 23 percent, or 559 000 tons, was short-fibre pulp and the rest, 1 565 000 tons, was wastepaper.
The prices on the world pulp market, for both short fibre and long fibre, have slightly increased since the middle of 1996 and kept going until the end of 1997.
In 1997 Thailand imported 349 000 tons of short-fibre and long-fibre pulp, mainly from USA, Canada, Chile, Brazil, New Zealand, Sweden, Indonesia and the Czech Republic. Coniferous bleached chemical wood pulp, coniferous unbleached chemical wood pulp and non-coniferous bleached chemical wood pulp, which account for 46 percent, 36 percent and 11 percent of total imported pulp respectively, were the main imports. Thailand also imported 622 000 tons of wastepaper during the same period from USA, Singapore, Germany, Netherlands, New Zealand and Hong Kong. The major kinds of imported wastepaper were old corrugated containers (OCC), representing 66 percent of the total amount imported.
In the same period, 103 000 tons of pulp were exported. The main destinations were mostly in Asia such as India, China, South Korea, Indonesia, Taiwan and Japan, as well as Italy.
Unit : ‘000 tons
|
|
1996 |
1997 |
|
Short-fibre pulp -Demand - Import - Export |
475 104 131 |
559 45 103 |
|
Long-fibre pulp -Demand - Import - Export |
241 241 - |
304 304 - |
|
Wastepaper -Demand - Import - Export |
1 560 582 - |
1 565 622 - |
Paper
The demand for paper in Thailand decreased by 3 percent from 2 360 000 tons in 1996 to 2 290 000 tons in 1997. The domestic consumption of paper could be categorised as follows: 50 percent for kraft paper, 17 percent for printing and writing paper, 16 percent for newsprint paper, 7 percent for paperboard, 3 percent for household and sanitary paper and the rest for other papers.
In 1997 Thailand imported 417 300 tons of paper and paperboard. The major import was newsprint paper which accounted for 41 percent, followed by 17 percent for paperboard, 11 percent for printing and writing paper, 7 percent for kraft paper, 2 percent for household and sanitary paper, and the remaining 22 percent for others.
In the same period Thailand also exported 525 500 tons of paper, of which 40 percent was paperboard, 36 percent was kraft paper, 12 percent was printing and writing paper, 4 percent was household and sanitary paper, 1 percent was newsprint paper, and the remaining 7 percent for others.
Unit : ‘000 tons
|
|
Demand |
Import |
Export |
|||
|
|
1996 |
1997 |
1996 |
1997 |
1996 |
1997 |
|
Kraft paper |
1 118 |
1,150 |
31 |
31 |
70 |
190 |
|
Printing and writing paper |
425 |
395 |
70 |
46 |
47 |
65 |
|
Paperboard |
269 |
151 |
67 |
69 |
41 |
211 |
|
Newsprint paper |
357 |
375 |
206 |
171 |
14 |
3 |
|
Household and sanitary paper |
76 |
74 |
11 |
6 |
17 |
23 |
|
Other papers |
115 |
145 |
85 |
93 |
16 |
34 |
|
Total |
2 360 |
2 290 |
470 |
417 |
205 |
526 |
Domestic pulp consumption is expected to decrease from 863 000 tons in 1997 to 729 000 tons in 1998 and increase to 845 000 tons in 2001, an average growth rate of 5 percent per annum. The consumption of short-fibre pulp will decrease from 559 000 tons in 1997 to 464 000 tons in 1998 and rise to 545 000 tons in 2001, while production capacity is expected to expand from 626 000 tons in 1997 to 878 000 tons in 1998 and 1 128 tons in 1999, respectively. The additional capacities in 1998 will be from Advance Agro Public Company Limited with 252 000 air-dry tons per annum. Moreover, other newcomers are expected in 1999: Asia Tech Pulp and Paper Public Company Limited with an annual production capacity of 150 000 tons and Thai Pulp Industry with an annual production capacity of 100 000 tons. As a result, Thailand will have a surplus of short-fibre pulp for exporting.
Unit : 1000 t/a
|
|
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
|
Demand -Short-fibre pulp -Long-fibre pulp |
559 298 |
464 265 |
503 278 |
523 288 |
545 300 |
|
Capacity -Short fibre pulp -Long fibre pulp |
626 - |
878 - |
1 128 - |
1 128 - |
1 128 - |
|
Surplus (shortage) -Short fibre pulp -Long fibre pulp |
67 - |
414 - |
625 - |
605 - |
583 - |
Total annual demand for paper and paperboard in Thailand is expected to decrease from 2.29 million tons in 1997 to 2.08 million tons in 1998 and gradually increase to 2.33 million tons in 2001, an average growth rate of 4 percent per annum. Thailand will also have a surplus of paper from 1997 to 2001. During the next four years, kraft paper will account for 47 percent, newsprint paper for 19 percent, printing and writing paper for 14 percent, paperboard for 7 percent, household and sanitary paper for 5 percent and the rest will be a miscellaneous minority of total paper consumption.
The projected demand and supply of paper in Thailand during 1997-2001 is shown in the following table :
1997-2001 projected demand and supply of paper in Thailand
Unit : 1000 t/a
|
|
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
|
Kraft paper -Demand -Capacity Surplus (shortage) |
1 150 1 804 654 |
1 010 1 927 917 |
1 040 2 020 980 |
1 071 2 124 1 053 |
1 103 2 142 1 039 |
|
Printing and writing paper -Demand -Capacity Surplus (shortage) |
395 883 416 |
295 973 678 |
295 1 061 766 |
304 1 061 757 |
320 1 061 741 |
|
Paperboard -Demand -Capacity Surplus (shortage) |
151 217 66 |
150 214 64 |
155 214 59 |
159 214 55 |
164 214 50 |
|
Household and sanitary paper -Demand -Capacity Surplus (Shortage) |
74 132 58 |
85 155 70 |
95 155 60 |
101 170 69 |
108 170 62 |
|
Newsprint -Demand -Capacity Surplus (shortage) |
375 120 (255) |
380 120 (260) |
400 120 (280) |
420 120 (300) |
440 120 (320) |
|
Others -Demand -Capacity Surplus (shortage) |
145 80 (65) |
160 80 (80) |
171 80 (91) |
183 80 (103) |
196 80 (116) |
|
Total -Demand -Capacity Surplus (shortage) |
2 290 3 236 946 |
2 080 3 283 1 203 |
2 156 3 650 1 494 |
2 238 3 769 1 531 |
2 331 3 787 1 456 |
|
Population (1 000 000 man) |
60.8 |
61.4 |
62.4 |
63.4 |
64.3 |
|
Per caput consumption (kg/head) |
37.7 |
33.9 |
34.6 |
35.3 |
36.3 |
