FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief

The Cereal Supply and Demand Brief provides an up-to-date perspective of the world cereal market. The monthly brief is supplemented by a detailed assessment of cereal production as well as supply and demand conditions by country/region in Crop Prospects and Food Situation, published three times per year. More in-depth analyses of world markets for cereals, as well as other major food commodities, are published biannually in Food Outlook.

Monthly release dates for 2025: 7 February, 7 March, 4 April, 2 May, 6 June, 4 July, 5 September, 3 October, 7 November, 5 December.

Global cereal trade in 2024/25 expected to contract to lowest level since 2019/20

Release date: 04/04/2025

FAO has revised upward the estimate for global cereal production in 2024 by 7.1 million tonnes compared to the figure of March. Standing at 2 849 million tonnes, the world cereal outturn, however, remains 0.3 percent lower year on year. This month’s positive adjustment is primarily driven by larger-than-previously anticipated wheat outturns in Australia and Kazakhstan. The world output for barley is also raised, albeit by a lesser margin compared to wheat, and is mostly linked to a more abundant harvest in Australia. World rice production in 2024/25 is forecast at a record high of 543.3 million tonnes (milled basis), little changed from March expectations and implying a 1.6 percent area-driven expansion. India is expected to account for much of the season’s anticipated growth. Good harvests in Cambodia, China and the United Republic of Tanzania, among others, could however also contribute, more than compensating for weather-driven contractions, namely in Bangladesh, Indonesia and Myanmar.

The forecast for world cereal utilization in 2024/25 stands at 2 868 million tonnes, up 1.3 million tonnes since last month and 0.9 percent above the 2023/24 level. This month’s revision is due to an upward revision of 2.7 million tonnes in the global coarse grains’ utilization forecast with higher anticipated usage of all major coarse grains (maize, barley and sorghum) than previously anticipated. This adjustment raises the coarse grains utilization forecast to 1 534 million tonnes, indicating a 1.1 percent growth from last season. Conversely, the global wheat utilization forecast, now pegged at 795.4 million tonnes, is expected to decline fractionally below previous season’s level following a downward revision of 1.4 million tonnes, primarily reflecting an adjustment in India. The forecast for global rice utilization in 2024/25 remains at 539.0 million tonnes, up 2.1 percent from 2023/24 and a fresh peak. Food intake is seen driving this expansion, on a per capita basis, growing to 53.3 kg per year. Nevertheless, and although still accounting for a limited share of world rice uses, non-food industrial uses could also stage a notable (17 percent) annual expansion, largely due to greater use of rice for ethanol production in India.

World cereal stocks by the close of the 2025 seasons are still projected to decline below opening levels by 1.5 percent, reaching 873.3 million tonnes, despite a 4.0 million tonne upward revision this month. The latest forecasts indicate that the world cereal stocks-to-use ratio in 2024/25 would stand at 30.1 percent, slightly down from 30.9 percent in 2023/24, but still at a comfortable level. The projected decline in cereal stocks rests on an anticipated 6.0 percent decline in global coarse grain stocks. A reduction in maize inventories in China, driven by lower imports, leads to a further 3.3 million tonne decrease in global coarse grain stocks, bringing the forecast to 347.6 million tonnes. By contrast, the global wheat stocks forecast is raised this month, by 7.1 million tonnes, indicating an increase of 0.8 percent above their opening levels, reaching 320 million tonnes. The bulk of this upward revision is attributed to stock increases in India, Kazakhstan, and the Russian Federation. World rice stocks at the close of 2024/25 marketing years are forecast to expand by 3.2 percent year-to-year to reach a record high of 205.9 million tonnes, reflecting expectations of stock rebuilding among importing countries, as well as another accumulation among exporting countries.

FAO’s forecast for world trade in cereals in 2024/25 has been further reduced by 5.3 million tonnes to 478.9 million tonnes, marking a 6.7 percent decrease from the 2023/24 level and the lowest since 2019/20. The global coarse grain trade forecast for 2024/25 is lowered by 3.7 million tonnes this month, with both maize and sorghum trade revised downwards due to smaller expected purchases by China. Among the exporters, maize exports from Brazil are revised downwards in line with the export pace to date, and sorghum exports from the United States of America are reduced on account of anticipated lower flows to China, its main destination. These revisions bring the global coarse grain trade forecast to 224.2 million tonnes, a steep 8.2 percent decline from the 2023/24 level. Lower expected purchases by China also lead to a 1.7 million tonne downward revision in the 2024/25 global wheat trade forecast. Smaller wheat exports from Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation further contribute to the diminished global trade outlook. Now forecasted at 195 million tonnes, global wheat trade is expected to contract in 2024/25 by 7.2 percent from previous season. International rice trade is forecast to expand by 1.0 percent in 2025 (January-December) to reach a high of 60.0 million tonnes. On the demand side, although Indonesia, the Philippines and Viet Nam look set to diminish their purchases this year, import cutbacks from these counties could be more than compensated by higher purchases, most notably, by Bangladesh, Madagascar and Nepal.

Looking ahead to 2025

FAO’s forecast for global wheat production in 2025 remains broadly unchanged since the first outlook of March. Forecast at 795 million tonnes, the 2025 world wheat output is on par with the previous year’s level following the upward revisions made this month to the 2024 estimate.  

Winter wheat crop conditions in the key producing countries of the northern hemisphere have remained broadly unchanged in the last month. In the European Union, official figures place the wheat output at 135.5 million tonnes, up 12 percent year on year, based on higher plantings and yields, following the weather-induced lows of 2024. However, continued rainfall deficits in eastern areas present a moderate downside risk to yield potentials. In the Russian Federation, low soil moisture levels and a reduction in plantings are set to result in a lower output in 2025. In Ukraine, production of wheat in 2025 is pegged at a level below the five-year average, underpinned by the effects of the ongoing war, while dry weather conditions are driving expectations of a likely modest year-on-year decline. In the United States of America, total wheat production is forecast to dip in 2025, on account of lower yields, with a larger area of the winter wheat crop affected by drought conditions relative to the previous year. In Canada, with the main planting period to start in May, preliminary projections indicate a price-driven expansion in the wheat area. However, this is likely to be offset by a decline in yields, keeping production largely unchanged year on year, albeit still above the five-year average. In India, driven by a record wheat area, on the back of strong price incentives and government subsidies for agricultural inputs, production is seen increasing in 2025, with wheat production forecast at an all-time high of 115.4 million tones. In Near East Asia, widespread rainfall shortages have impacted production expectations in both Iran (Islamic Republic of) and Türkiye, increasing the likelihood of a decline in wheat harvests in 2025; access to irrigation is, however, likely to limit the downturn. In North Africa, total wheat production in 2025 is anticipated to remain below the five-year average, reflecting the effects of poor early-season rainfall, notably in Algeria and Morocco, whilst in Egypt, wheat production – primarily irrigated – is expected to increase year-on-year, amid an expansion policy by the government. In the key wheat-producing countries south of the equator, the outlook for Argentina is generally favourable, with a reduction in export tariffs and prospects of remunerative prices underlying expectations of an increase in plantings. This is likely to push up production, despite an anticipated modest drop in yields. In Australia, the early outlook points to a moderate decline in wheat production, but the harvest is still expected to exceed 30 million tonnes.  

Summary Tables