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ECE/TIM/DP/8 UN-ECE/FAO TIMBER AND FOREST DISCUSSION PAPERS ETTS V WORKING PAPER FOREST RESOURCES AND CONSUMPTION OF FOREST PRODUCTS IN COUNTRIES IN TRANSITION, 1990–2020 |
United Nations Economic Commission for Europe
Food and Agriculture Organization
of the United Nations
Timber Section
Geneva, Switzerland
by Jarmo Eronen
UNITED NATIONS
New York and Geneva, 1996
ETTS V WORKING PAPERS
This is one of a series of papers to accompany the fifth study of European timber trends and prospects (ETTS V). The ETTS V Working Papers contain material which is too technical, too detailed or too voluminous for inclusion in the main study, such as results and projections by country or methodological discussion.
ETTS V was prepared in a two stage process:
It was sometimes necessary to modify the sector-by-sector data in order to get a comprehensive but internally consistent scenario for the forest and forest products sector as a whole. For this reason, although the ETTS V scenarios are based on the analysis in the Working papers, not all the results correspond exactly. Readers are referred to ETTS V itself for an explanation of the methods used.
Although prepared as part of ETTS V, the Working Papers are the responsibility of their authors.
Further information about ETTS V, and other documentation is available on request from the ETTS V coordinator,
| Mr. C. Prins | Telephone: | +41 22 917 2874 |
| Chief, Timber Section | Fax: | +41 22 917 0041 |
| ECE Trade Division | E-mail: | [email protected] |
| Palais des Nations | ||
| CH 1211 GENEVA 10 |
UN-ECE/FAO TIMBER AND FOREST DISCUSSION PAPERS
The objective of the Discussion Papers is to make available to a wider audience work carried out, usually by national experts, in the course of ECE/FAO activities. They do not represent the final official output of the activity (which is normally issued as a UN-ECE/FAO Timber and Forest Study Paper), but a contribution which because of its subject matter, or quality, or for other reasons, deserves to be disseminated more widely than the restricted official circles from whose work it emerged, or which is not suitable (e.g. because of technical content, narrow focus, specialised audience) for distribution as a Study Paper.
In all cases, the author(s) of the discussion paper are identified, and the paper is their responsibility. The ECE Timber Committee, the FAO European Forestry Commission, the governments of the authors' country and the FAO/ECE secretariat, are in no way responsible for the opinions expressed and the facts presented in the discussion paper.
In the interests of economy, Discussion Papers are issued in the original language only. They are free of charge and available on request from the secretariat while stocks last. They are distributed automatically to nominated forestry libraries and information centres in member countries. Those interested in receiving these Discussion Papers on a continuing basis should contact the secretariat.
A bother objective of the Discussion Papers is to stimulate dialogue and contacts among specialists. Comments or questions should be sent to the secretariat, who will transmit them to the authors.
Preface by the secretariat
Perhaps the most important socio-economic and political development in Europe between the time of ETTS IV and that of ETTS V was the start of the process of transition for the former centrally planned economies to a market economy system. The changes to every part of these countries' society and institutions are profound and sometimes painful. The forest and forest products sector is no exception. As these countries account for about a quarter of Europe's forest area and around 10% of its consumption of forest products, it is important to understand the factors which will determine the outlook for them. Methodologically, however, a severe problem arises in that the experience of the past provides only very limited information which is relevant for the future.
In the circumstances, the only feasible approach was to rely on the judgement and experience of national ETTS V correspondents in the transition countries to provide quantified scenarios for the outlook to 2020, which would serve as a basis for discussion, although it is acknowledged that the situation is changing so rapidly and fundamentally that these forecasts need monitoring and perhaps revision at regular intervals.
An enquiry was circulated to the correspondents, to whom the secretariat expresses its deep gratitude, especially for their willingness to make professional judgements on complex issues, in an open manner. Their replies were checked and analysed by Mr. Jarmo Eronen of Indufor Oy, Finland, who has prepared this working paper, acting as a consultant to the secretariat, which takes this opportunity to express its thanks to Mr. Eronen for an important contribution to ETTS V in a difficult area.
Hyperlinks to non-FAO Internet sites do not imply any official endorsement of or responsibility for the opinions, ideas, data or products presented at these locations, or guarantee the validity of the information provided. The sole purpose of links to non-FAO sites is to indicate further information available on related topics.
1. ECONOMIC POLICIES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
3. FOREST RESOURCES AND THEIR MANAGEMENT
5. CONSUMPTION OF FOREST PRODUCTS
5.1 Prospects of Domestic Forest Industries
5.2 Implications for Trade
6.1 Poland
6.1.1 Forest Resources
6.1.2 Consumption of Forest Products
6.2 Czech Republic
6.2.1 Forest Resources
6.2.2 Consumption of Forest Products
6.3 Slovakia
6.3.1 Forest Resources
6.3.2 Consumption of Forest Products
6.4 Hungary
6.4.1 Forest Resources
6.4.2 Consumption of Forest Products
6.5 Slovenia
6.5.1 Forest Resources
6.5.2 Consumption of Forest Products
6.6 Croatia
6.6.1 Forest Resources
6.6.2 Consumption of Forest Products
6.7 Romania
6.7.1 Forest Resources
6.7.2 Consumption of Forest Products
6.8 Bulgaria
6.8.1 Forest Resources
6.8.2 Consumption of Forest Products
6.9 Albania
6.9.1 Forest Resources
6.9.2 Consumption of Forest Products
6.10 Lithuania
6.10.1 Forest Resources
6.10.2 Consumption of Forest Products
6.11 Latvia
6.11.1 Forest Resources
6.11.1 Consumption of Forest Products
6.12 Estonia
6.12.1 Forest Resources
6.12.2 Consumption of Forest Products
Tables
1.1 Economic Indicators
2.1 Forest Ownership in Poland 1993
2.2 Forest Ownership in Czech Republic and Slovakia
2.3 Projected Forest Ownership in Hungary and Romania