Food supply outlook is difficult in several parts of the Great Lakes Region. In Rwanda, the influx of hundreds of thousands of refugees from neighbouring countries will strain the already fragile and unstable food situation in the country. Overall food prospects are bleak for a large number of people in the months ahead. A recent FAO/WFP Mission estimated a recovery in 1997 first season cereals and other foodcrops, but a decrease in major pulses, which were affected by excessive rains. In southern parts, food output was reduced by dry weather. The socio-political crisis in Burundi and the economic sanctions imposed by neighbouring countries threaten to aggravate the food supply situation in the coming months. The outlook for eastern Zaire gives cause for serious concern, where timely distribution of food will pose a major challenge to the international community. Displacement of local people and Sudanese refugees in northern Uganda have resulted in severe food supply problems. In Tanzania, some 280 000 people need food assistance following a poor harvest in 1996.
In eastern Africa, output of secondary cereals is expected to be poor, reflecting inadequate rainfall during the season. Below average harvests are anticipated in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. A series of FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Missions to review the 1996 main cereal crop in the Horn of Africa found that bumper aggregate harvests were gathered in Ethiopia and Sudan, but that output fell in Kenya and Eritrea.
In Southern Africa overall crop outlook is favourable so far, but there is a threat of red locusts to cereal crops for harvest from April. Following widespread rains in many principal crop growing areas in late October and November, planting is at an advanced stage in most countries. However, outbreaks of red locusts have been reported in Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
In western Africa, 1996 cereal production was average to above average in most Sahelian and coastal countries. However, in Liberia cereal output in 1996 was only 30 percent of the pre-civil war level. In Sierra Leone, food production recovered in 1996, but remained well below the pre civil-strife average.
The outlook for winter grains is mostly favourable in Asia and above average production is expected in China, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. Earlier, heavy floods seriously affected crop production in Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos. Floods also destroyed crops in Korea DPR, which needs substantial food assistance in 1997 to meet minimum food requirements. Output will be reduced in Iraq, due to low rainfall, pests and scarcity of inputs, whilst in Afghanistan production continues to be hampered by insecurity and lack of inputs
Hurricanes and floods in Central America and the Caribbean seriously damaged crops. Yet the 1996 coarse grains crop is estimated to be above average, mostly as a result of a strong recovery in Mexico. In South America 1996 wheat production is estimated to be a record, due to substantial increases in Argentina and Brazil. The 1996/97 area planted to maize is also well above average.
In the CIS, 1997 winter cereal crop prospects are mixed, reflecting extremely cold weather since late December and insufficient protective snow cover in several areas.
Prospects for 1997 cereal crops are generally satisfactory in Europe. Early indications point to increased winter grain planting in the EC and parts of eastern Europe.
The United States winter wheat area fell by 7 percent from the previous year to the lowest level since 1978, but conditions have been generally favourable so far and most crops are in good to excellent condition.
In Australia a bumper winter wheat and coarse grain crop is being harvested, following increased plantings and favourable weather conditions throughout the season.