In northern Africa, significantly below-normal rainfall in October and November delayed planting of winter crops in Algeria and Tunisia. Prospects for winter crops are uncertain in Morocco where abundant rains in November benefited planting but where crops are threatened by desert locusts, which have prompted extensive control measures by the Government. In Egypt, output of the recently harvested paddy crop is estimated at an above-average 4.9 million tons. In 1996, production of wheat in the sub-region increased by 7.5 percent to a record 16.5 million tons due to above average production in all countries. Production of coarse grains in 1996 increased in the sub-region by 60 percent to 13.6 million tons.
In western Africa, seasonably dry conditions prevail in the Sahel. FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Missions estimated 1996 aggregate cereal production in the nine CILSS countries at 9.4 million tons, some 1.5 percent above average, 3 percent up on 1995 but 6 percent lower than the record output in 1994. Output is anticipated to be above average in Mauritania, Niger and Senegal, close to average in Burkina Faso, Mali and The Gambia but below average in Cape verde, Chad and Guinea-Bissau. In countries along the Gulf of Guinea, growing conditions for 1996 cereal crops were generally favourable. A good harvest is expected in the sub-region, except in Liberia and Sierra-Leone. Aggregate cereal production in the nine coastal countries is provisionally estimated at 29 million tons. First estimates point to record cereal crops in Benin, Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon and Nigeria. Production in Togo is anticipated to be average. In Liberia, civil disturbances continue to disrupt production, and output is set to remain substantially below average. In Sierra Leone, cereal production is estimated to be higher than 1995, due to the on-going peace process and rehabilitation programmes, but still remains below pre civil-strife levels.
In central Africa, millet and sorghum have been harvested in northern Cameroon and Central African Republic. In Congo, Gabon and southern Zaire, the main maize crop is developing satisfactorily.
In eastern Africa, the 1996/97 "short rains" season is drawing to a close. Following delayed, below average and irregular rainfall during the season, production is anticipated to be reduced in Kenya, Somalia, Tanzania and Uganda. As a result of favourable rainfall, Ethiopia and Sudan had record main season cereal crops in 1996, but production declined in Eritrea due to dry spells in July/August in several areas. In Somalia production increased over the previous year but remained below normal due to unfavourable weather and insecurity in several regions. In Rwanda, excessive rains negatively affected production of 1997 first season pulses but benefited other foodcrops. In Burundi, despite favourable growing conditions, output of the 1997 first season is anticipated to be reduced due to insecurity and a shortage of inputs.
In southern Africa, planting of the 1996/97 cereal crops is advanced in most countries. Weather conditions have been generally favourable following widespread rains in late October and November , which improved soil moisture, encouraged large plantings and seed germination for early crops in most countries, including Madagascar, Lesotho and Swaziland. However, rainfall so far has been below normal in parts of Malawi, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe. In Angola, crop prospects are good so far as the on going peace process is expected to result in increased planting and better provision of seeds and farm implements. More rains, however, are needed for crop development in the sub-region. Red locusts originating from Mozambique have been reported in several neighbouring countries, including Botswana, Malawi, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Most countries have initiated programmes against locust attacks but strong control measures are needed urgently, with assistance from the international community.
In Asia, prospects for winter cereals to be harvested from April are mostly favourable. In China soil moisture conditions are adequate for winter wheat, as in India where growing conditions for rabi grains (mostly wheat) are favourable as a result of adequate soil moisture reserves after a good monsoon and early seasonal rains. In Pakistan the wheat crop is also progressing satisfactorily; production this year is projected to be similar to the 16.9 million tons harvested in 1996. Early prospects for the boro rice crop in Bangladesh and also appear to be satisfactory. Recent drier weather in the Philippines benefited the maturing rice crop after extremely wet conditions earlier. Similar wet conditions slowed maturation and harvesting of the main paddy crop in parts of Thailand. The worst floods in a decade affected crop production in Vietnam. Heavy floods also affected crops in Korea DPR and Laos earlier and are likely to delay planting of flood recession and dry season rice in Cambodia. In Iraq low rainfall, damage from pests and continuing shortages of inputs and spare parts will significantly reduce the output of wheat and barley in 1996/97. In Syria, the 1996 cereal harvest was marginally lower than the previous year, while it was slightly higher in Turkey. In Afghanistan, aggregate output in 1996 was below-normal, reflecting acute shortages of agricultural inputs and continuing insecurity. Food production in Mongolia also continues to be heavily constrained by transitional problems, which have resulted in the scarcity of essential inputs and fragmentation of state farms.
In Central America and the Caribbean, hurricane weather continues to affect food and cash crops, particularly in Honduras, Costa Rica and Nicaragua. However, these losses have been more than offset by a substantial recovery in coarse grain production in Mexico. Overall, record cereal production is projected for 1996 in the sub-region. In the Dominican Republic, the output of maize and paddy in 1996 is estimated to be above average. In Cuba and Haiti, cereal production remained below average.
In South America, 1996 wheat output is provisionally estimated to be a record in Argentina, while production in Brazil more than doubled over 1995. Planting of the 1996/97 maize crop is near completion in these countries and total area is estimated to be above-average. By contrast, in Chile , dry weather continues to affect food and cash crops in some areas. In Bolivia and Ecuador, 1996 wheat output was below average, but coarse grain production was satisfactory. In Colombia, low maize and sorghum outputs are estimated, while that of paddy is about average. In Venezuela, a bumper paddy crop has been gathered, but coarse grain production is below average.
In Europe, in the Baltic countries, the 1996 grain harvest is forecast to reach 4 million tons, nearly 20 percent more than in 1995 in response to good price incentives for foodgrains and better weather. In Estonia, the 1996 grain harvest is provisionally forecast at just under 600 000 tons, compared to 520 000 tons in 1995. In Latvia the harvest could reach 900 000 tons and in Lithuania 2.5 million tons are expected.
In the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the 1996 cereal and pulse harvest is estimated to have increased by 1 million tons to 130 million tons despite a reduction of 3 million hectares in the aggregate areas sown and poor growing conditions in the Ukraine and Moldova. Nevertheless, output remains well below the 5-year average mainly due to limited farm investment and a shortage of credit for inputs. Aggregate cereal production increased in most states but fell sharply in Turkmenistan, where over-expansion of area sown caused partial crop failure. Planting of the winter cereal crop, for harvest in the summer of 1997, was completed under mostly favourable conditions. Indications are that the area sown to winter grains increased in many states, but fell in the Russian Federation. Crop conditions are mixed reflecting insufficient snow cover in several areas to protect dormant crops from extremely cold temperatures since late December.
In Europe, early prospects for the 1997 cereal crops are generally favourable. Winter grain plantings have increased in the EC following a reduction in area restrictions and generally favourable weather last autumn. Indications are that plantings have also increased somewhat in some eastern countries, despite shortage of inputs or farmers' lack of cash to purchase inputs in some parts.
In North America, final United States official estimates for 1996 production put the wheat crop at 62.1 million tons, 2.7 million tons up from the previous year, and the coarse grains crop at 267.5 million tons, 58 million tons up from 1995's reduced level. The early outlook for 1997 winter wheat is satisfactory and as of early January crops are reported to be in mostly good to excellent condition. In Canada, the final official estimate of the 1996 wheat output is 30.5 million tons, about 22 percent up from 1995. Coarse grain production also increased by about 17 percent to some 28.5 million tons. For 1997 early indications point to a reduction in wheat and coarse grains area with a rotation of land to oilseeds.
In Oceania, a bumper winter grain crop is in prospect following increased plantings and favourable growing conditions. Wheat production is forecast to increase by 20 percent to over 21 million tons, the second largest crop on record. A good winter coarse grain crop is also in prospect and the aggregate coarse grain output in 1996 is expected to increase by 8 to 10 percent over the previous year.