The food situation in southern Sudan is grave. The long-running civil strife in southern Sudan, which has caused social upheavals and extreme human suffering over the past 15 years, has recently been coupled with a prolonged drought spanning two cropping seasons, to precipitate widespread food shortages and famine conditions in parts. The worst affected part is Bahr-El-Ghazal where intensified fighting and acute food shortages have led to fresh waves of population movement in search of both food and protection. In Wau, the capital of Western Bahr-El-Ghazal, the influx of people is reported at 2 500 per day. Children are dying of starvation, despite stepped-up food aid distribution by humanitarian agencies. The total number of people facing famine conditions in the most affected states is estimated at 1.2 million. With household coping mechanisms long exhausted, massive emergency assistance is urgently needed not only in quantities of food but also in logistical support for food distribution and seeds for the next planting season.
Elsewhere in eastern Africa, the food outlook is bleak in Somalia reflecting poor rains during the current (Gu) season and a number of negative factors deriving from the recent disastrous floods, such as the extensive damage to irrigation infrastructure in the major producing areas, shortage of seeds, unusually high infestations of pests and excessive weed growth. In addition, insecurity continues to hamper agricultural activities. As a result, the area planted to maize and sorghum is estimated to be one-third below the reduced level of 1997, and yields are expected to be well below average. Preliminary forecasts point to a cereal output half the previous year’s Gu production and just one-third of the pre-civil strife level. Elsewhere in the sub-region, overall harvest outlook is satisfactory, except in northern and western Uganda where insurgency continues to disrupt food production.
Several countries in western Africa face food supply difficulties, mainly resulting from recent or ongoing civil strife or localized weather adversities in 1997. In Sierra Leone, while the food situation has improved in Freetown and the centre of the country where relatively peaceful conditions prevail, insecurity is rampant in the east and north where the remnants of the ousted junta continue their fight against ECOMOG forces, resulting in the displacement of the local farming population at a critical time of the cropping season. In Guinea-Bissau, fighting which broke out in the capital in early June, displaced an estimated 400 000 people from the capital, Bissau, to the rural areas. A cease fire agreement was signed on 26 July. In the Sahelian countries, following localized food production shortfalls in some countries in 1997, food supply difficulties are reported in parts of Burkina Faso, Mauritania, Niger and Senegal. Several governments have appealed for international assistance for the affected populations.
In southern Africa, food production has significantly declined in several countries, due to El Niño-related weather anomalies. Although the negative impact of El Niño in this sub-region has been much less than anticipated, prolonged dry spells and floods have adversely affected crop production in several countries, particularly in Lesotho, Namibia and Zambia, but also in Botswana, South Africa and Zimbabwe. As a consequence, the sub-region’s cereal import requirements in 1998/99 (May/April) are forecast to rise substantially over 1997/98 levels.
The food outlook in the Great Lakes region has improved, although it remains bleak in parts. In Burundi, Rwanda and eastern DRC, an improved harvest is underway, largely due to favourable weather. The hitherto tight food situation has eased and food prices have begun to decline. However, in DRC, intensified fighting in early August and subsequent insecurity will disrupt food production and marketing activities in the two provinces of North and South Kivu, where constant population displacements continue. Shortages of seeds and other planting material have also been a major factor limiting food production.
In the Sahel, the growing season has started under mixed conditions. The late start of the rains will limit the growing season in Senegal, The Gambia and Mauritania. Improved rains from mid-July benefited crops in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Chad.
Sub-Saharan Africa’s cereal import requirements in 1998 are forecast to increase over last year, mainly reflecting reduced harvests in eastern and southern Africa.
