Food OutlookGlobal Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture
The outlook for 1999 cereal production has improved slightly
since June, due mainly to better crop prospects in Asia and North
America. World production, however, will not be sufficient to meet anticipated
consumption requirements and global stocks will need to be drawn down.
International cereal prices remain mostly below the previous year, but wheat prices firmed up slightly in recent months, supported by increased trade activity. By contrast, coarse grains and rice prices in international markets fell, mostly in response to good crop prospects and weaker international demand, respectively.
Prospects for trade and price recovery in the world meat market remain uncertain as the effects of the 1998 global financial crisis extend into 1999. Global production is forecast to increase 2 percent as feed prices remain low.
Record 1998/99 production of oilcrops is confirmed by latest estimates, exceeding the expected increase in demand. Stocks of oilcrop products are likely to increase and prices to fall.
World fish production recovered in 1999 due to high tuna and illex catches. With the phasing out of El Niño, the small pelagic fisheries in Chile and Peru are recovering. The prices of tuna and groundfish are anticipated to improve.