FAO/GIEWS - Food Outlook No.4 - September 1999 p. 2

	1995 /96	1996 /97	1997 /98	1998 /99	1999 /2000 forecast	Change 1999/2000 over 1998/99
WORLD PRODUCTION 1/	(. . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . )					(percentage)
Wheat	548	589	613	595	579	-2.7
Coarse grains	810	920	905	906	899	-0.7
Rice, milled	369	383	387	383	392	2.3
(paddy)	(550)	(571)	(578)	(572)	(585)	2.3
All cereals (including milled rice)	1 727	1 892	1 905	1 884	1 870	-0.7
Developing countries	958	1 025	1 006	1 026	1 033	0.7
Developed countries	770	867	899	858	837	-2.4
WORLD IMPORTS 2/
Wheat	99	102	100	98	101	3.1
Coarse grains	95	91	89	92	94	2.3
Rice (milled)	19	19	27	23	23	-0.3
All cereals	214	211	216	213	218	2.4
Developing countries	151	150	158	155	158	1.4
Developed countries	62	62	58	58	60	5.1
FOOD AID IN CEREALS 3/	7.4	5.5	6.2	9.5
WORLD UTILIZATION
Wheat	563	577	589	588	594	0.9
Coarse grains	856	893	897	896	904	0.9
Rice (milled)	373	380	382	389	390	0.5
All cereals	1 791	1 851	1 868	1 873	1 888	0.8
Developing countries	1 078	1 107	1 111	1 128	1 148	1.8
Developed countries	713	744	757	745	740	-0.7
Per Caput Food Use	(. . . . . . . . . kg/year . .. . . . . . . . . . .)
Developing countries	171	172	171	173	173	0.0
Developed countries	128	128	128	129	129	0.0
WORLD STOCKS 5/	( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
Wheat	102	113	138	142	132	-7.5
Coarse grains	98	126	137	141	137	-3.1
Rice (milled)	52	56	55	53	54	2.9
All cereals	252	295	330	336	323	-4.0
Developing countries	150	172	162	164	163	-1.1
Developed countries	102	123	167	172	160	-6.7
	(. . . . . . .. percentage . . . . . .)
Stocks as % of world cereal consumption	13.6	15.8	17.6	17.8	16.9
EXPORT PRICES 3/	(. . . . . . . . U.S.$/tonne . . . . . . . .)
Rice (Thai, 100%, 2nd grade) 1/	336	352	316	315	263 5/	-18.6 7/
Wheat (U.S. No.2 Hard Winter)	216	181	142	120	110 6/	-4.6 7/
Maize (U.S. No.2 Yellow)	159	135	112	95	76 6/	-19.8 7/
OCEAN FREIGHT RATES 3/
From U.S. Gulf to Egypt	16.8	12.8	11.7	9.3	11.6 6/	42.1 7/
LOW-INCOME FOOD-DEFICIT COUNTRIES 8/	( . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . .)
Roots & tubers production 1/	357	380	355	357	353	-1.1
Cereal production (milled rice) 1/	744	803	784	799	815	2.0
Per caput production (kg.) 9/	211	224	216	217	218	0.5
Cereal imports 2/	78.9	69.1	77.7	70.0	71.0	1.3
of which: Food aid 3/	6.4	4.6	5.5	6.8
	(. . . . . . . percentage . . . . . .)
Stocks as % of world covered by food aid	8.1	6.7	7.1	9.7

1/ Data refer to the calendar year of the first year shown. 2/ July/June except for rice for which the data refer to the calendar year of the second year shown. 3/ July/June. 4/. Stock data are based on aggregate of national carryover levels at the end of national crop years. 5/ Average of quotations for January-August 1999. 6/ Average of quotations for July-August 1999. 7/ Change from corresponding period of previous year for which figures are not shown. 8/ Food deficit countries with per caput income below the level used by the World Bank to determine eligibility for IDA assistance (i.e. U.S.$ 1 505 in 1997), which in accordance with the guidelines and criteria agreed to by the CFA should be given priority in the allocations of food aid. 9/ Includes rice on a mille basis.

FAO/GIEWS - Food Outlook No.4 - September 1999 p. 2

BASIC FACTS OF THE WORLD CEREAL SITUATION