Economic and Social Department

global information and early warning system on food and agriculture

food outlook
No. 4	Rome, September 2003

highlights

BASIC FACTS OF THE WORLD CEREAL SITUATION

FOOD EMERGENCIES UPDATE 1/

Cereals: Supply/Demand Roundup

Cereals: Current Production and Crop Prospects

Cereals: Trade

Cereals: Carryover stocks

Cereals: Export Prices

Fertilizers

Appendix Tables

STATISTICAL NOTE

Appendix Tables

A.1 a) - WORLD CEREAL PRODUCTION

	Wheat			Coarse Grains
	2001	2002 estim.	2003 f’cast	2001	2002 estim.	2003 f’cast
	(million tonnes)
ASIA	245.8	251.5	245.6	210.0	212.0	211.4
Bangladesh	1.6	1.6	1.7	0.1	0.1	0.1
China 1/	93.9	90.3	86.1	125.2	133.9	127.9
India	69.7	71.8	69.3	34.0	25.7	32.0
Indonesia	-	-	-	9.3	9.5	10.4
Iran, Islamic Rep. of	9.5	12.5	12.8	3.5	4.5	4.3
Japan	0.7	0.8	0.7	0.2	0.2	0.2
Kazakhstan	12.7	12.6	10.5	3.0	3.1	2.5
Korea, D. P. R.	0.1	0.1	0.1	1.6	1.8	1.5
Korea, Rep. of	-	-	-	0.5	0.4	0.4
Myanmar	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.7	0.8	0.7
Pakistan	19.0	18.2	19.3	2.2	2.2	2.1
Philippines	-	-	-	4.5	4.3	4.5
Saudi Arabia	1.8	1.8	1.8	0.3	0.3	0.3
Thailand	-	-	-	4.7	4.5	4.5
Turkey	18.5	20.0	21.0	10.2	10.8	10.6
Viet Nam	-	-	-	2.1	2.3	2.0
AFRICA	18.2	16.7	20.5	83.1	82.5	84.9
North Africa	12.9	12.1	16.7	10.0	9.9	12.2
Egypt	6.3	6.6	6.8	7.8	7.4	7.6
Morocco	3.3	3.4	5.4	1.3	1.9	2.8
Sub-Saharan Africa	5.3	4.6	3.7	73.1	72.7	72.7
Western Africa	0.1	0.1	0.1	33.4	34.3	34.3
Nigeria	0.1	0.1	0.1	19.6	19.9	20.0
Central Africa	-	-	-	2.5	2.6	2.6
Eastern Africa	2.2	2.0	1.8	22.5	20.0	19.3
Ethiopia	1.6	1.3	1.3	8.0	7.4	6.9
Sudan	0.2	0.4	0.2	5.1	3.5	3.9
Southern Africa	2.9	2.6	1.8	14.7	15.8	16.5
Madagascar	-	-	-	0.2	0.2	0.2
South Africa	2.5	2.3	1.6	7.9	10.5	9.7
Zimbabwe	0.3	0.2	0.1	1.6	0.6	0.9
CENTRAL AMERICA	3.3	3.3	3.0	31.1	28.5	29.1
Mexico	3.3	3.3	3.0	27.6	24.7	25.4
SOUTH AMERICA	21.2	18.0	22.0	70.8	64.2	76.0
Argentina	15.3	12.3	14.5	19.6	18.7	19.1
Brazil	3.3	2.9	4.7	43.0	37.0	48.0
Colombia	-	-	-	1.4	1.4	1.4
NORTH AMERICA	73.8	59.7	83.3	285.1	264.9	302.3
Canada	20.6	15.7	21.0	22.7	19.8	26.4
United States	53.3	44.0	62.4	262.4	245.2	275.9
EUROPE	201.7	209.9	160.0	224.0	219.8	198.6
Bulgaria	4.1	3.6	2.2	2.0	2.5	1.9
EU	92.2	104.3	92.6	107.9	107.2	95.0
Hungary	5.2	3.9	3.0	9.6	8.1	6.6
Poland	9.3	9.3	8.2	17.7	17.3	15.7
Romania	7.8	4.4	2.5	10.3	9.8	8.9
Russian Fed.	47.0	50.6	36.5	35.7	33.7	32.2
Ukraine	21.3	19.8	5.5	17.1	16.2	14.7
OCEANIA	25.2	9.7	22.0	13.3	7.6	10.4
Australia	24.9	9.4	21.7	12.8	7.0	9.8
WORLD	589.1	568.9	556.4	917.4	879.6	912.8
Developing countries	263.1	262.2	267.6	382.1	371.4	387.2
Developed countries	326.0	306.6	288.7	535.4	508.3	525.6

Source: FAO Note: Totals computed from unrounded data.

1/ Including Taiwan Province.

Table A.1 b) - WORLD CEREAL PRODUCTION

	Rice (paddy)			Total Cereals 1 /
	2001	2002 estim.	2003 f’cast	2001	2002 estim.	2003 f’cast
	(million tonnes)
ASIA	544.4	520.6	541.0	1 000.1	984.2	998.0
Bangladesh	36.4	38.0	39.6	38.1	39.6	41.3
China 2/	179.3	176.3	175.5	398.3	400.6	389.5
India	139.6	113.6	130.0	243.3	211.1	231.3
Indonesia	50.5	51.5	51.8	59.8	61.0	62.2
Iran, Islamic Rep. of	2.0	2.4	2.5	14.9	19.3	19.6
Japan	11.3	11.1	10.3	12.3	12.2	11.2
Kazakhstan	0.2	0.2	0.2	15.9	15.9	13.2
Korea, D. P. R.	2.1	2.2	2.3	3.8	4.1	3.9
Korea, Rep. of	7.5	6.7	6.8	7.9	7.0	7.2
Myanmar	21.9	22.8	23.5	22.7	23.7	24.3
Pakistan	5.8	6.3	6.4	27.0	26.8	27.9
Philippines	13.1	13.0	13.5	17.6	17.3	18.0
Saudi Arabia	-	-	-	2.1	2.1	2.1
Thailand	26.5	25.9	27.0	31.2	30.4	31.5
Turkey	0.4	0.4	0.4	29.1	31.2	32.0
Viet Nam	32.0	34.1	33.5	34.1	36.4	35.5
AFRICA	17.3	18.0	18.0	118.6	117.2	123.4
North Africa	5.3	6.1	5.8	28.2	28.0	34.8
Egypt	5.2	6.0	5.8	19.3	20.1	20.2
Morocco	-	-	-	4.6	5.3	8.2
Sub-Saharan Africa	12.0	11.9	12.1	90.4	89.2	88.6
Western Africa	7.6	7.5	7.6	41.1	41.9	42.0
Nigeria	3.3	3.4	3.5	23.0	23.3	23.6
Central Africa	0.4	0.4	0.4	3.0	3.0	3.0
Eastern Africa	1.1	1.1	1.0	25.8	23.1	22.1
Ethiopia	-	-	-	9.6	8.7	8.1
Sudan	-	-	-	5.4	3.9	4.1
Southern Africa	3.0	3.0	3.2	20.6	21.3	21.5
Madagascar	2.7	2.7	2.8	2.9	2.9	3.0
South Africa	-	-	-	10.4	12.8	11.3
Zimbabwe	-	-	-	1.9	0.7	1.0
CENTRAL AMERICA	2.2	2.3	2.4	36.6	34.1	34.5
Mexico	0.2	0.2	0.3	31.1	28.3	28.6
SOUTH AMERICA	19.9	19.8	19.5	111.9	102.1	117.5
Argentina	0.9	0.7	0.7	35.7	31.8	34.3
Brazil	10.4	10.6	10.4	56.7	50.5	63.2
Colombia	2.3	2.4	2.5	3.7	3.8	4.0
NORTH AMERICA	9.8	9.6	8.9	368.7	334.2	394.5
Canada	-	-	-	43.3	35.5	47.4
United States	9.8	9.6	8.9	325.4	298.7	347.1
EUROPE	3.2	3.2	3.0	428.9	433.0	361.7
Bulgaria	-	-	-	6.0	6.1	4.1
EU	2.6	2.6	2.4	202.7	214.2	190.0
Hungary	-	-	-	14.8	12.0	9.5
Poland	-	-	-	27.0	26.6	23.9
Romania	-	-	-	18.1	14.2	11.4
Russian Fed.	0.5	0.5	0.5	83.2	84.8	69.2
Ukraine	0.1	0.1	0.1	38.5	36.0	20.3
OCEANIA	1.8	1.3	0.4	40.3	18.7	32.8
Australia	1.8	1.3	0.4	39.4	17.7	31.9
WORLD	598.6	574.8	593.2	2 105.2	2 023.4	2 062.4
Developing countries	572.1	549.2	570.0	1 217.3	1 182.8	1 224.8
Developed countries	26.4	25.7	23.2	887.8	840.6	837.5

Source: FAO Note: Totals computed from unrounded data.

1/ Rice is included in the cereal total in paddy terms. 2/ Including Taiwan Province

Table A.2 a) - WORLD IMPORTS OF CEREALS

	Wheat (July/June) 1 /			Coarse Grains (July/June)
	2001/02	2002/03 estim.	2003/04 f'cast	2001/02	2002/03 estim.	2003/04 f'cast
	(million tonnes)
ASIA	46.9	42.3	39.5	57.1	56.4	56.7
Bangladesh	1.7	1.6	1.7	0.1	0.1	0.1
China	2.0	1.5	1.6	7.7	7.4	7.5
Taiwan Province	1.0	1.1	1.1	5.3	5.0	5.0
Georgia	0.5	0.5	0.6	-	-	-
India	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2
Indonesia	4.0	4.0	4.1	1.1	1.7	1.4
Iran, Islamic Rep. of	5.9	2.3	1.0	1.7	1.5	1.5
Iraq	3.0	2.5	2.8	0.1	0.1	0.1
Israel	1.5	1.6	1.5	1.4	1.2	1.2
Japan	5.7	5.7	5.8	19.9	19.8	19.7
Korea, D. P. R.	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.5	0.3	0.4
Korea, Rep. of	4.0	3.7	3.0	8.6	8.9	9.0
Malaysia	1.3	1.4	1.4	2.4	2.4	2.5
Pakistan	0.3	0.3	0.5	0.1	0.1	0.2
Philippines	3.1	3.4	3.2	0.4	0.4	0.4
Saudi Arabia	0.1	0.1	0.1	7.0	6.7	7.0
Singapore	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.2
Sri Lanka	0.8	0.8	0.9	0.2	0.1	0.1
Syria	0.3	0.6	0.2	0.9	1.1	0.6
Thailand	0.9	0.8	0.9	-	-	-
Yemen	2.0	2.0	2.0	0.3	0.2	0.2
AFRICA	25.9	26.3	23.4	15.1	17.2	15.0
North Africa	16.7	17.2	13.8	11.4	11.1	10.2
Algeria	4.4	4.7	3.7	2.1	2.2	1.8
Egypt	6.8	6.5	6.5	5.5	5.3	5.4
Morocco	2.9	2.7	1.3	1.7	1.5	1.2
Tunisia	1.3	1.8	0.8	1.5	1.4	1.0
Sub-Saharan Africa	9.2	9.1	9.6	3.7	6.2	4.8
Côte d'Ivoire	0.3	0.3	0.3	-	-	-
Ethiopia	0.3	0.5	0.9	-	0.3	0.1
Kenya	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.5	0.7	0.8
Nigeria	2.5	2.5	2.5	0.1	0.1	0.1
Senegal	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.1	-
Sudan	1.1	0.9	1.0	0.1	0.1	0.1
South Africa	0.5	0.7	0.8	0.7	0.7	0.6
CENTRAL AMERICA	6.7	7.0	7.3	13.4	12.4	12.9
Cuba	1.0	1.0	1.0	0.2	0.3	0.3
Dominican Rep.	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.7	0.7	0.7
Mexico	3.1	3.3	3.5	10.3	8.9	9.5
SOUTH AMERICA	11.8	11.6	11.1	6.1	5.7	5.7
Brazil	6.8	6.7	6.0	0.6	0.5	0.3
Chile	0.3	0.3	0.3	1.2	1.1	1.1
Colombia	1.2	1.2	1.2	2.3	2.3	2.4
Peru	1.3	1.3	1.3	0.8	0.7	0.7
Venezuela	1.3	1.2	1.3	0.7	0.5	0.7
NORTH AMERICA	3.0	2.2	2.6	6.5	6.6	4.0
Canada	0.1	0.2	0.1	3.9	4.4	1.6
United States	3.0	2.0	2.5	2.6	2.2	2.4
EUROPE	13.3	15.9	13.2	8.0	6.9	8.6
Belarus	0.5	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.2
EU 2/	10.0	12.0	5.0	4.2	4.0	4.5
Poland	0.3	0.3	0.8	0.3	0.3	0.5
Romania	-	0.3	1.0	0.2	0.1	0.6
Russian Fed.	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.8	0.3	0.6
Ukraine	0.1	0.5	2.3	0.1	0.1	0.1
OCEANIA	0.6	0.8	0.5	0.1	0.2	0.2
New Zealand	0.3	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1
WORLD	108.3	106.1	97.5	106.3	105.3	103.0
Developing countries	81.1	77.2	71.2	69.6	69.9	68.8
Developed countries	27.2	28.8	26.4	36.8	35.4	34.2

Source: FAO Note: Totals computed from unrounded data.

1/ Including wheat flour in wheat grain equivalent, but excluding semolina.

2/ Excluding trade between the EU member countries.

Table A.2 b) - WORLD IMPORTS OF CEREALS

	Rice (milled)			Total Cereals 1 /
	2002	2003 estim.	2004 f'cast	2001/02	2002/03 estim.	2003/04 f'cast
	(million tonnes)
ASIA	14.2	13.5		118.2	112.1
Bangladesh	0.5	0.7		2.4	2.4
China	0.4	0.5		10.0	9.3
Taiwan Province	0.1	0.2		6.5	6.3
Georgia	-	-		0.5	0.5
India	-	-		0.2	0.4
Indonesia	3.5	3.3		8.6	9.0
Iran, Islamic Rep. of	1.0	0.7		8.6	4.5
Iraq	1.2	1.0		4.3	3.6
Israel	0.1	0.1		3.0	2.9
Japan	0.7	0.7		26.2	26.1
Korea, D. P. R.	0.7	0.7		1.6	1.4
Korea, Rep. of	0.2	0.2		12.8	12.8
Malaysia	0.6	0.5		4.3	4.3
Pakistan	-	-		0.4	0.4
Philippines	1.3	1.1		4.8	4.9
Saudi Arabia	0.8	0.8		7.9	7.6
Singapore	0.4	0.5		0.9	0.9
Sri Lanka	0.1	0.1		1.1	1.0
Syria	0.2	0.2		1.4	1.8
Thailand	-	-		0.9	0.8
Yemen	0.3	0.3		2.5	2.4
AFRICA	8.4	7.9		49.4	51.4
North Africa	0.2	0.3		28.3	28.5
Algeria	0.1	0.1		6.5	7.0
Egypt	-	-		12.3	11.8
Morocco	-	-		4.6	4.2
Tunisia	-	-		2.7	3.2
Sub-Saharan Africa	8.2	7.7		21.1	22.9
Côte d'Ivoire	1.0	1.1		1.3	1.4
Ethiopia	-	-		0.4	0.7
Kenya	0.2	0.2		1.3	1.5
Nigeria	1.8	1.5		4.4	4.1
Senegal	0.7	0.7		1.0	1.0
Sudan	-	-		1.2	1.0
South Africa	0.6	0.6		1.8	2.0
CENTRAL AMERICA	1.9	2.0		22.1	21.4
Cuba	0.6	0.6		1.7	1.8
Dominican Rep.	-	-		1.0	1.0
Mexico	0.5	0.6		13.9	12.8
SOUTH AMERICA	0.8	1.5		18.7	18.8
Brazil	0.6	1.2		8.0	8.3
Chile	0.1	0.1		1.5	1.5
Colombia	0.1	0.1		3.6	3.6
Peru	-	-		2.1	2.0
Venezuela	-	0.1		2.0	1.8
NORTH AMERICA	0.7	0.7		10.2	9.5
Canada	0.3	0.3		4.2	4.9
United States	0.4	0.4		6.0	4.6
EUROPE	1.7	1.7		23.1	24.4
Belarus	-	-		0.8	0.6
EU 2/	0.7	0.7		14.9	16.7
Poland	0.1	0.1		0.7	0.7
Romania	0.1	0.1		0.3	0.5
Russian Fed.	0.4	0.4		1.7	1.1
Ukraine	0.1	0.1		0.3	0.7
OCEANIA	0.3	0.4		1.0	1.3
New Zealand	-	-		0.5	0.2
WORLD	28.1	27.7	27.0 3/	242.7	239.0	227.5
Developing countries	24.0	23.6	23.0	174.7	170.8	162.9
Developed countries	4.1	4.0	4.0	68.0	68.3	64.6

Source: FAO Note: Totals computed from unrounded data.

1/ Trade in rice refers to the calendar year of the second year shown.

2/ Excluding trade between the EU member countries.

3/ Highly tentative.

Table A.3 a) - WORLD EXPORTS OF CEREALS

	Wheat (July/June) 1 /			Coarse Grains (July/June)
	2001/02	2002/03 estim.	2003/04 f'cast	2001/02	2002/03 estim.	2003/04 f'cast
	(million tonnes)
ASIA	11.4	16.4	13.7	8.3	16.5	12.7
China 2/	0.7	1.0	1.5	6.4	14.5	11.0
India	3.5	5.5	3.5	-	-	-
Indonesia	-	-	-	0.1	0.1	0.1
Japan	0.4	0.4	0.4	-	-	-
Kazakhstan	3.8	5.7	5.4	0.4	0.5	0.4
Myanmar	-	-	-	0.1	0.2	0.1
Pakistan	0.7	1.0	-	-	-	-
Syria	0.5	0.6	0.6	-	-	0.1
Thailand	-	-	-	0.2	0.1	0.1
Turkey	0.6	1.0	1.0	0.6	0.7	0.5
Viet Nam	-	-	-	-	-	-
AFRICA	0.6	0.6	0.5	2.3	1.9	1.9
Egypt	-	-	-	-	-	-
Ethiopia	-	-	-	0.1	-	-
Nigeria	-	-	-	0.1	0.1	0.1
South Africa	0.1	0.3	-	1.4	1.1	1.3
Sudan	-	-	-	0.1	0.1	0.1
Uganda	-	-	-	0.3	0.1	0.1
CENTRAL AMERICA	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.2	0.3	0.3
SOUTH AMERICA	11.0	5.7	10.1	15.0	14.9	16.5
Argentina	11.0	5.6	10.0	9.6	12.0	10.6
Brazil	-	-	-	5.0	2.5	5.5
Paraguay	0.1	0.1	-	0.2	0.3	0.2
Uruguay	-	-	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1
NORTH AMERICA	42.2	32.0	43.0	59.0	49.8	56.5
Canada	16.0	9.0	14.0	3.0	2.3	5.0
United States	26.2	23.0	29.0	56.0	47.5	51.5
EUROPE	26.0	41.1	15.2	16.1	18.3	11.6
Bulgaria	0.8	1.1	0.3	0.3	0.7	0.2
Czech Rep.	0.8	0.5	-	0.3	0.3	0.4
EU 3/	10.5	15.2	12.0	5.1	6.8	6.0
Hungary	2.1	0.9	0.5	3.1	1.4	0.8
Romania	0.8	0.6	-	0.6	0.6	0.2
Russian Fed.	4.5	14.6	2.2	2.6	3.7	2.2
Ukraine	5.5	6.5	-	3.5	4.0	1.3
OCEANIA	16.4	10.4	14.5	5.6	2.5	3.6
Australia	16.4	10.4	14.5	5.6	2.5	3.6
WORLD	108.3	106.8	97.5	106.4	104.1	103.0
Developing countries	19.3	16.9	19.0	23.9	32.0	29.6
Developed countries	89.0	89.9	78.5	82.5	72.1	73.4

Source: FAO

Note: Totals computed from unrounded data.

1/ Including wheat flour in wheat grain equivalent, but excluding semolina.

2/ Including Taiwan Province.

3/ Excluding trade between the EU member countries.

Table A.3 b) - WORLD EXPORTS OF CEREALS

	Rice (milled)			Total Cereals 1 /
	2002	2003 estim.	2004 f'cast	2001/02	2002/03 estim.	2003/04 f'cast
	(million tonnes)
ASIA	22.5	21.6		42.1	54.5
China 2/	2.1	2.7		9.1	18.2
India	6.6	3.8		10.1	9.3
Indonesia	-	-		0.1	0.1
Japan	0.3	0.6		0.7	1.0
Kazakhstan	-	-		4.2	6.2
Myanmar	0.9	0.9		1.0	1.1
Pakistan	1.6	1.8		2.3	2.8
Syria	-	-		0.5	0.6
Thailand	7.3	7.5		7.5	7.6
Turkey	-	-		1.2	1.7
Viet Nam	3.2	4.0		3.3	4.0
AFRICA	0.5	0.7		3.3	3.2
Egypt	0.5	0.7		0.5	0.7
Ethiopia	-	-		0.1	-
Nigeria	-	-		0.1	0.1
South Africa	-	-		1.5	1.4
Sudan	-	-		0.1	0.1
Uganda	-	-		0.3	0.1
CENTRAL AMERICA	-	-		1.0	1.0
SOUTH AMERICA	1.2	1.2		27.1	21.8
Argentina	0.2	0.2		20.7	17.8
Brazil	-	-		5.0	2.5
Paraguay	-	-		0.3	0.3
Uruguay	0.6	0.6		0.7	0.7
NORTH AMERICA	3.3	3.7		104.5	85.5
Canada	-	-		19.0	11.3
United States	3.3	3.7		85.5	74.2
EUROPE	0.3	0.2		42.4	59.6
Bulgaria	-	-		1.1	1.8
Czech Rep.	-	-		1.1	0.8
EU 3/	0.3	0.2		15.8	22.2
Hungary	-	-		5.2	2.3
Romania	-	-		1.4	1.2
Russian Fed.	-	-		7.0	18.3
Ukraine	-	-		9.0	10.5
OCEANIA	0.4	0.2		22.4	13.1
Australia	0.4	0.2		22.4	13.0
WORLD	28.1	27.7	27.0 4/	242.8	238.6	227.5
Developing countries	23.9	23.0	23.3	67.1	71.9	71.9
Developed countries	4.2	4.7	3.7	175.7	166.8	155.6

Source: FAO

Note: Totals computed from unrounded data.

1/ Trade in rice refers to the calendar year of the second year shown.

2/ Including Taiwan Province.

3/ Excluding trade between the EU member countries.

4/ Highly tentative.

Table A.4 – CEREALS: Supply and Utilization in Main Exporting Countries (National Crop Years)

	Wheat 1/			Coarse Grains 2/			Rice (milled basis)
	2001/02	2002/03 estim.	2003/04 f'cast	2001/02	2002/03 estim.	2003/04 f'cast	2001/02	2002/03 estim.	2003/04 f'cast
	(million tonnes)
	UNITED STATES (June/May)			UNITED STATES			UNITED STATES (Aug./July)
Opening stocks	23.8	20.6	13.4	52.7	44.9	28.9	0.9	1.2	0.6
Production	53.3	44.0	62.4	262.4	245.2	275.9	6.7	6.5	6.1
Imports	2.9	2.1	2.4	2.3	2.3	2.4	0.4	0.5	0.5
Total Supply	80.0	66.7	78.2	317.3	292.3	307.2	8.0	8.2	7.2
Domestic use	33.2	30.1	32.1	217.3	217.4	221.4	3.9	3.8	4.0
Exports	26.1	23.2	28.6	55.2	45.9	53.0	3.0	3.7	2.7
Closing stocks	20.6	13.4	17.5	44.9	28.9	32.7	1.2	0.6	0.6
	CANADA (August/July)			CANADA			THAILAND (Nov./Oct.) 3/
Opening stocks	9.7	6.5	5.6	4.4	3.5	2.5	1.8	2.5	2.5
Production	20.6	15.7	21.0	22.7	19.8	26.4	17.6	17.2	17.9
Imports	0.1	0.2	0.0	4.0	4.3	1.6	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total Supply	30.3	22.4	26.6	31.2	27.5	30.5	19.4	19.7	20.4
Domestic use	7.6	8.0	7.6	24.3	22.6	22.2	9.5	9.7	9.9
Exports	16.2	8.8	13.8	3.4	2.4	4.9	7.3	7.5	7.7
Closing stocks	6.5	5.6	5.2	3.5	2.5	3.3	2.5	2.5	2.8
	ARGENTINA (Dec./Nov.)			ARGENTINA			CHINA (Jan./Dec.) 3/ 4/
Opening stocks	0.4	0.8	2.0	1.2	1.6	0.8	106.5	92.9	78.1
Production	15.3	12.3	14.5	19.6	18.7	19.1	122.9	120.9	120.3
Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.4	0.5	0.6
Total Supply	15.7	13.1	16.5	20.9	20.4	19.9	229.7	214.3	198.9
Domestic use	4.9	5.1	5.2	9.0	8.6	8.5	134.8	133.5	132.6
Exports	10.0	6.0	9.5	10.2	11.1	10.8	2.1	2.7	2.7
Closing stocks	0.8	2.0	1.8	1.6	0.8	0.6	92.9	78.1	63.6
	AUSTRALIA (Oct./Sept.)			AUSTRALIA			PAKISTAN (Nov./Oct.) 3/
Opening stocks	3.8	6.7	1.9	1.2	2.2	1.4	1.0	0.6	0.2
Production	24.9	9.4	21.7	12.8	7.0	9.8	3.9	4.2	4.3
Imports	0.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total Supply	28.6	16.5	23.6	14.0	9.3	11.2	4.9	4.8	4.5
Domestic use	5.4	6.1	5.9	6.5	5.8	6.2	2.7	2.8	2.8
Exports	16.5	8.5	15.0	5.3	2.1	3.6	1.6	1.8	1.6
Closing stocks	6.7	1.9	2.7	2.2	1.4	1.5	0.6	0.2	0.1
	EU (July/June) 5/			EU 5/			VIET NAM (Nov./Oct.) 3/
Opening stocks	14.5	12.5	13.5	17.1	19.6	17.1	4.0	4.5	4.9
Production	92.2	104.3	92.6	107.9	107.2	95.0	21.3	22.7	22.3
Imports	10.0	12.0	5.0	4.2	4.2	4.5	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total Supply	116.7	128.8	111.1	129.2	131.0	116.6	25.3	27.2	27.2
Domestic use	93.4	99.8	92.8	104.5	107.1	101.1	17.6	18.3	18.2
Exports	10.8	15.5	12.3	5.1	6.8	6.0	3.2	4.0	4.1
Closing stocks	12.5	13.5	6.0	19.6	17.1	9.5	4.5	4.9	4.9
TOTAL ABOVE
Opening stocks	52.2	47.2	36.4	76.7	71.7	50.7	114.1	101.7	86.3
Production	206.1	185.7	212.1	425.4	397.9	426.2	172.4	171.5	170.9
Imports	13.0	14.7	7.5	10.5	10.9	8.5	0.8	1.0	1.0
Total Supply	271.3	247.6	255.9	512.5	480.5	485.4	287.3	274.1	258.2
Domestic use	144.5	149.3	143.5	361.6	361.5	359.5	168.5	168.0	167.5
Exports	79.6	62.0	79.2	79.3	68.3	78.3	17.2	19.7	18.8
Closing stocks	47.2	36.4	33.2	71.7	50.7	47.7	101.7	86.3	71.9

Source: FAO Note: Totals computed from unrounded data.

1/ Trade data include wheat flour in wheat grain equivalent. For the EU semolina is also included.

2/ Argentina (Dec./Nov.) for rye, barley and oats, (March/February) for maize and sorghum; Australia (November/October) for rye, barley and oats, (March/February) for maize and sorghum; Canada (August/July); EU (July/June); United States (June/May) for rye, barley and oats, (September/August) for maize and sorghum.

3/ Rice trade data refer to the calendar year of the second year shown.

4/ Including Taiwan province.

5/ Excluding trade between the EU member countries.

Table A.5 - WORLD CEREAL STOCKS: Estimated Total Carryovers of Cereals 1/

	Crop Years ending in:
	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003 estim.	2004 f’cast
	(million tonnes)
TOTAL CEREALS	667.0	686.3	684.5	633.4	584.2	466.6	371.9
Wheat	258.0	262.8	256.9	242.6	223.5	178.4	125.8
held by:
- main exporters 2/	39.3	50.7	50.3	52.2	47.2	36.4	33.2
- others	218.7	212.1	206.7	190.5	176.3	142.1	92.6
Coarse Grains	256.4	266.1	259.4	225.9	210.2	165.8	141.3
held by:
- main exporters 2/	69.3	79.7	77.0	76.7	71.7	50.7	47.7
- others	187.0	186.5	182.4	149.3	138.5	115.1	93.7
Rice (milled basis)	152.7	157.3	168.1	164.8	150.6	122.4	104.7
held by:
- main exporters 2/	115.7	117.2	119.7	114.1	101.7	86.3	71.9
excl. China 3/	4.5	4.1	6.7	7.7	8.8	8.2	8.3
- others	37.0	40.1	48.4	50.6	48.9	36.1	32.8
BY REGIONS
Developed Countries	169.2	171.1	164.7	160.4	167.1	135.1	118.0
Australia	3.8	3.0	4.2	5.1	9.1	3.5	4.2
EU	35.1	36.6	34.2	32.0	32.7	31.3	16.2
Canada	10.4	12.5	13.6	14.1	10.1	8.1	8.6
Hungary	2.8	2.6	2.0	1.3	1.4	1.4	0.9
Japan	6.7	6.0	5.7	5.3	4.9	4.9	4.4
Poland	4.0	4.2	3.7	1.5	2.3	2.0	1.4
Romania	5.0	3.5	3.6	0.9	2.6	1.5	0.7
Russian Fed.	18.0	5.8	4.9	6.5	13.4	12.5	9.0
South Africa	3.7	2.3	1.7	3.0	1.8	2.9	2.3
Ukraine	4.5	2.2	2.2	2.3	5.2	5.1	3.4
United States	58.7	77.8	75.6	77.4	66.7	43.0	50.8
Developing Countries	497.8	515.2	519.8	472.9	417.2	331.5	253.9
Asia	460.9	476.6	482.1	438.9	379.3	299.0	221.7
China 3/	369.6	376.7	369.6	320.1	266.7	209.5	145.0
India	42.9	47.3	57.4	63.6	60.4	40.6	30.9
Indonesia	5.5	5.6	5.9	5.7	3.6	4.0	3.9
Iran, Islamic Rep. of	3.9	3.8	4.3	3.6	4.5	4.0	2.3
Korea, Rep. of	2.8	2.8	3.3	3.2	3.4	3.3	3.1
Pakistan	7.1	8.6	7.9	7.4	4.6	1.2	0.6
Philippines	2.0	2.6	1.9	2.0	1.8	2.2	1.9
Syria	4.0	4.2	4.0	3.6	5.3	6.3	6.0
Turkey	7.4	9.4	8.3	8.7	6.8	6.0	5.9
Africa	22.0	26.0	23.6	20.5	20.9	18.9	16.5
Algeria	2.1	2.6	2.0	1.3	1.3	1.0	1.0
Egypt	3.7	4.5	4.1	3.9	3.7	3.3	2.6
Ethiopia	1.9	0.8	0.9	0.3	0.5	0.2	0.1
Morocco	2.5	4.7	3.0	1.7	1.8	1.9	2.5
Nigeria	1.9	1.9	1.6	2.2	2.4	2.3	1.8
Tunisia	1.9	1.9	2.1	2.1	2.2	2.0	1.7
Central America	5.1	6.2	6.3	5.9	6.6	5.1	4.8
Mexico	3.9	5.0	4.8	4.5	5.4	3.9	3.7
South America	9.6	6.2	7.5	7.5	10.1	8.3	10.8
Argentina	2.1	1.7	1.5	1.7	2.5	2.9	2.5
Brazil	4.9	1.5	2.7	1.9	4.3	2.8	6.1

Source: FAO Note: Based on official and unofficial estimates. Totals computed from unrounded data.

1/ Stock data are based on an aggregate of carryovers at the end of national crop years and do not represent world stock levels at any point in time.

2/ The major wheat and coarse grains exporters are Argentina, Australia, Canada, the EU and the United States. The major rice exporters are China (including Taiwan Province), Pakistan, Thailand, the United States and Viet Nam. See Table A.4 for country details.

3/ Including Taiwan Province.

Table A.6 – SELECTED EXPORT PRICES OF CEREALS AND SOYBEANS

	Wheat			Maize		Sorghum	Soybeans
	U.S. No.2 Hard Red Winter Ord. Prot. 1 /	U.S. Soft Red Winter No.2 1 /	Argentina Trigo Pan 2 /	U.S. No.2 Yellow 1 /	Argentina 2 /	U.S. No.2 Yellow 1 /	U.S. No.2 Yellow 1 /
	(US$/tonne)
July/June
1999/2000	112	97	112	91	90	89	190
2000/2001	128	101	124	86	84	93	184
2001/2002	127	113	119	90	89	95	182
2002/2003	161	138	145	107	102	112	222
2002 – August	165	131	138	110	105	115	219
September	190	154	153	115	108	120	221
October	196	159	155	110	105	121	212
2003 – April	143	126	143	105	99	108	217
May	147	131	157	108	104	103	242
June	135	125	158	107	103	102	204
July	133	127	143	99	97	95	228
August I	147	136	150	95	94	98	209
II	155	141	152	100	98	107	218
III	160	147	160	101	99	109	224
IV	156	144	158	104	101	110	230

Sources: International Grain Council and USDA.

1/ Delivered U.S. Gulf ports. 2/ Up River f.o.b.

Table A.7 - PRICE INDICES AND SELECTED EXPORT PRICES FOR RICE

	Export Prices				FAO Indices
Calendar years	Thai 100% B	Thai broken	U.S. Long grain	Pakistani Basmati	Total	Indica		Japonica	Aromatic
Calendar years	1 /	2 /	3 /	4 /		High quality	Low quality
January/December	(U.S.$/tonne)				(1998-2000=100)
1999	253	192	333	486	101	99	101	105	98
2000	207	143	271	418	84	84	83	83	89
2001	177	135	264	332	74	74	74	76	69
2002	197	151	207	366	72	73	75	67	74
2002 - August	195	149	210	390	73	73	75	67	80
2003 - April	198	140	251	336	76	76	77	69	90
May	202	143	287	336	80	79	79	77	92
June	209	153	287	n.a.	82	80	81	81	96
July	203	149	289	n.a.	83	80	80	84	96
August I	198	151	297	n.a.	)
II	198	151	308	n.a.	)
III	198	151	308	n.a.	) 85	82	82	88	97
IV	198	152	308	n.a.	)

Sources: FAO for indices. Rice prices: Jackson Son & Co. (London) Ltd. and other public sources.

Note: The FAO Rice Price Index is based on 16 rice export quotations. 'Quality' is defined by the precentage of broken kernels, with high (low) quality referring to rice with less (equal to or more) than 20 percent brokens. The Sub-Index for Aromatic Rice follows movements in prices of Basmati and Fragrant rice.

1/ White rice, 100% second grade, f.o.b. Bangkok, indicative traded prices. 2/ A1 super, f.o.b. Bangkok, indicative traded prices. 3/ U.S. No.2, 4% brokens f.o.b. 4/ Basmati: ordinary, f.o.b. Karachi.

Table A.8 – PRICE INDICES AND SELECTED INTERNATIONAL PRICES FOR OILCROP PRODUCTS

		FAO Indices			International Prices
Marketing years		Oilseeds	Edible/Soap Fats/Oils	Oilcakes/ Meals	Soybeans 1/	Soybean Oil 2/	Palm Oil 3/	Soybean Cake 4/	Rapeseed Meal 5/
October/September		(1990-92=100)			(U.S.$/tonne)

1997/98		109	154	116	256	634	641	197	138
1998/99		89	125	82	209	483	514	149	104
1999/00		83	91	89	209	355	337	180	124
2000/01	Oct.-Mar.	82	76	98	206	314	254	198	146
	Apr.-Sep	82	86	94	197	356	289	178	135
2001/02	Oct.-Mar.	83	95	100	188	378	323	175	135
	Apr.-Sep	90	107	104	213	445	392	174	122
2002/03	Oct.-Mar.	103	124	106	241	543	442	186	133
	Apr.-Aug.	103	123	109	242	530	413	195	148

Sources: FAO and Oil World.

Note: The FAO indices are calculated using the Laspeyres formula; the weights used are the average export values of each commodity for the 1990-92 period. The indices are based on the international prices of five selected seeds, ten selected oils and fats and seven selected cakes and meals.

1/ Soybeans (US, No.2 yellow, c.i.f. Rotterdam). 2/ Soybean oil (Dutch, fob ex-mill). 3/ Palm oil (Crude, c.i.f. North West Europe). 4/ Soybean cake (Pellets, 44/45%, Argentina, c.i.f. Rotterdam). 5/ Rapeseed meal (34%, Hamburg, f.o.b. ex-mill).

Table A.9 - WHEAT AND MAIZE FUTURES PRICES

	September		December		March		May
	this year	last year	this year	last year	this year	last year	this year	last year
	(US$/tonne)
WHEAT
July 22	122	125	126	128	128	130	125	126
29	128	120	132	124	135	126	131	123
August 5	128	124	133	128	135	131	132	128
12	133	129	138	133	140	135	136	133
19	141	128	145	133	147	136	140	133
26	133	130	137	133	140	137	135	134
MAIZE
July 22	82	97	84	101	87	102	90	104
29	83	91	85	95	88	97	90	99
August 5	82	100	85	104	89	106	91	107
12	86	103	90	107	93	109	95	109
19	88	105	91	109	95	111	96	112
26	90	104	93	108	95	110	97	111

Source: Chicago Board of Trade

Table A.10 - OCEAN FREIGHT RATES FOR WHEAT

	From U.S. Gulf ports to:				From North Pacific ports to:
	Rotterdam 1/	CIS Black Sea 1/ 2/	Egypt (Alexandria) 1/	Bangladesh 1/	China 1 /	Japan 1/
	(US$/tonne)
July/June
1998/1999	9.42	25.45	9.25	18.75	27.00	29.17
1999/2000	12.60	40.97	13.65	18.50	27.00	32.83
2000/2001	13.10	40.97	15.00	18.31	27.00	36.31
2001/2002	10.99	40.97	15.00	18.50	26.90	34.19
2002/2003	12.50	40.97	16.67	22.50	27.23	31.50
2002 - August	10.75	40.97	15.00	18.50	27.00	33.00
September	10.75	40.97	15.00	18.50	27.00	33.00
October	10.75	40.97	15.00	18.50	27.00	29.00
November	10.75	40.97	15.00	18.50	27.00	29.00
December	10.75	40.97	15.00	18.50	27.00	29.00
2003 - April	16.00	40.97	21.00	32.00	27.00	35.00
May	16.00	40.97	21.00	32.00	27.00	35.00
June	18.20	40.97	21.00	32.00	29.70	35.00
July	18.20	40.97	21.00	32.00	27.00	35.00
August	20.00	40.97	21.00	32.00	27.00	35.00

Source: International Grain Council

Note: Estimated mid-month rates based on current chartering practices for vessels ready to load three to four weeks ahead.

1/ Size of vessels: Rotterdam over 40 000 tonnes; CIS 20-40 000 tonnes; Egypt over 30 000 tonnes; Bangladesh over 40 000 tonnes; China 20-35 000 tonnes; Japan 15-24 999 tonnes.

2/ Excludes CIS and United States flag vessels.

Table A.11 - SELECTED INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

	Currency and Unit	Effective Date	Latest Quotation	1 month ago	1 year ago	Average 1989-91
Sugar (I.S.A. daily price)	US cents per lb	26.08.03	6.65	7.10	6.23	11.4
Coffee (I.C.O. daily price)	US cents per lb	27.08.03	51.65	50.63	42.27	76.7
Cocoa (I.C.C.O. daily price)	US cents per lb	27.08.03	77.8	68.1	93.3	56.0
Tea (total tea, Mombasa)	US$ per kg.	26.08.03	1.55	1.57	1.46	1.5
Bananas (Central America,	€ per tonne	25.05.03	945^1/	958^1/	1 031^1/	566
f.o.b., Hamburg)			765^2/	785^2/	880^2/
Cotton (COTLOOK, index “A” 1-3/32")	US cents per lb	05.09.03	61.0	61.1	49.7	78.5
Jute “BWD” f.o.b. Mongla at sight	US cents per lb	05.09.03	245	245	240	391.2
Wool (64's, London)	Pence per kg	05.09.03	552	525	477	466

Source: FAO

1/ EU duty paid, estimated. 2/ Estimated price for EFTA markets.


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