FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.2 - August 2002 p.4
The food outlook for sub-Saharan Africa in 2002/03 gives cause for serious concern. In southern Africa, sharp declines in maize harvests for two consecutive years have put a large number of people at the brink of starvation, while in eastern and western Africa the food outlook is unfavourable due to poor and erratic rainfall. Consequently, sub-Saharan Africa�s cereal import requirements in 2002/03 are expected to be above average. However, given the reduced import capacity of these countries due to falling international prices for their exports, increased international food assistance will be necessary to avert extreme hardship.
Following two consecutive years of poor cereal harvests, nearly 13 million people in southern Africa are in need of emergency food assistance until the next harvest in April 2003.
In Zimbabwe, the food and nutritional situation gives cause for serious concern following two consecutive sharply reduced cereal harvests and the country�s prevailing economic crisis. Shortages of the main staple, maize, are reported, particularly in rural areas. A recent assessment by the Government and UNICEF indicated an overall deterioration of the nutritional status of children, mostly in rural areas. The study showed that in 19 out of 24 districts surveyed, the prevalence of severe malnutrition was over 10 percent. In urban areas, recent shortages of bread, which had been used as an alternative to scarce maize-meal, has aggravated the food situation and accelerated price increases in the parallel market. Overall, high levels of inflation continue to erode access of poor households to food and non-food items. Further, the outlook for the crop and livestock production in 2002/03 is bleak due to disruption of farming activities in the large-scale commercial sector.
An FAO/WFP Mission in May estimated the maize deficit at 1.7 million tonnes, including 705�000 tonnes of emergency food aid for some 6 million most vulnerable people, or almost half of the country�s population. The Government, which has a monopoly for grain trade, has started arrangements to import maize commercially but so far arrivals have been slow, totalling less than 200�000 tonnes since the beginning of the marketing year in May. Pledges of food aid also remain well below requirements. Additional donor contributions are urgently needed to stem the deterioration of the food situation. Assistance with agricultural inputs is also urgently required to enable drought-affected farming families to restart agricultural production during the next main planting season starting in October 2002.
In Malawi, the food supply situation remains serious following two consecutive years of reduced cereal harvests. Earlier in the year, severe food shortages resulted in starvation in parts of the country. Approximately 3.2 million people are estimated to be seriously affected by the combined effects of reduced food availability and food access. Emergency food aid needs are estimated at 208�000 tonnes of cereals, mainly maize. Distribution of relief food has already started, targeting 500�000 beneficiaries with the number to be increased to 3.2 million people by December. Food aid requirements are so far well resource by donors� contributions.
Prices of maize, the staple crop, have declined from their record levels in March but are still above their levels of a year ago reflecting reduced supply. Of the estimated maize deficit of 575�000 tonnes, the Government has already approved importation of 250�000 tonnes through the National Food Reserve Agency (NFRA). These imports will augment the available supply of maize and minimize price hikes. Substantial informal cross-border maize inflows from Tanzania and Mozambique have also helped stabilize prices. The Government has announced the resumption of the �starter-pack� agricultural inputs programme for the next cropping season, targeting 3 million farmers at a cost of US$14.9 million, of which the Government will provide US$1.5 million and the balance is expected from donors.
In Zambia, severe crop losses during the last cropping season due to drought have left some 2.3 million people, or about one-quarter of the population, in need of food assistance. In the worst affected Southern Province 60 percent of the population require relief food assistance. This is the second consecutive year of reduced cereal harvests and coping mechanisms of the population are stretched to the limit. Aggregate, output of the main staple maize has been estimated at 25 percent below last year�s reduced crop.
The maize deficit in marketing year 2002/03 (May/April) is estimated at 575�000 tonnes. The Government and private millers signed an agreement in July to import 350�000 tonnes of maize duty-free. This is expected to prevent a repeat of last year�s delays in imports that resulted in serious maize shortages. Food aid requirements for the most affected population are estimated at 174�000 tonnes. Food distributions are underway in 39 of the country�s 72 districts. Current pledges of cereal food aid are adequate for the current operations but additional pledges of pulses and vegetable oil are still needed, as well as financial contributions for agricultural inputs for the next planting from October.
In Angola, the cease-fire agreement signed in April 2002 between UNITA and the Angolan Government revealed the extent of suffering by people trapped in rural areas. Large numbers of severely malnourished people have since made their way to reception and transit centres and up to 500�000 are reported to be in a critical nutritional condition. Severe malnutrition rates have been found particularly in Bi�, Uige, Huambo and Huila provinces, but as the security situation improves and more areas become accessible, similarly affected people are expected to be reached by the humanitarian community.
The total number of people in urgent need of food assistance in marketing year 2002/03 (April/March) is estimated at 1.4 million. This includes households in areas worst affected by the military conflict, the families of demobilised UNITA soldiers living in camps in several areas, IDPs with limited or no access to land to produce food, large numbers of vulnerable people and refugees returning from neighbouring countries. An FAO/WFP Mission in June 2002 estimated food aid needs at 221�000 tonnes of cereals, but by the end of July pledges fell far short of requirements. More contributions from donors are, therefore, urgently needed to avoid an interruption in the delivery of the assistance. International assistance is also required for repair of key roads and bridges before the rainy season starts in mid-September. The country will also need substantial assistance for an extensive de-mining programme.
In Mozambique, despite the good cereal harvest at the national level, the food situation is extremely tight in the southern and parts of the central regions, where crops were devastated by drought. On average, cereal output in the affected provinces declined by one-third from the reduced level of the previous year. The populations in these areas have exhausted their coping mechanisms due to the cumulative effects of several recent natural disasters - especially floods/excessive rains and cyclones - that hit the same areas during the last three years. For most households, alternative sources of income such as employment in South Africa and selling of charcoal are limited and dwindling.
It is estimated that 515�000 people in 43 districts of the Southern and Central regions are facing severe food shortages and need emergency food aid. This represents less than 3 percent of the country's total population but about 15 percent of the population of the two regions. Most of the food aid requirement, estimated at about 70�000 tonnes of cereals, is to be covered mainly by imports as high transport costs within the country make the movement of maize from the surplus north to the deficit south prohibitively expensive. WFP is distributing food through food-for-work programmes in 36 districts and through general distributions in two worst affected districts. Additional donor pledges are urgently required to avoid a break in the cereal pipeline in the next few months.
In Namibia, the food supply situation is tight following a sharp decline in this year�s cereal production. The country faces a cereal deficit of about 156�000 tonnes in 2002/03 (May/April), most of which is expected to be imported commercially. A recent vulnerability assessment undertaken by the Government found that 500�000 people are food insecure as a result of the reduced harvest and need emergency food aid. The Government has appealed for international assistance.
Elsewhere in southern Africa, the food supply situation is tight in Lesotho and Swaziland where, respectively, about 445�000 and 140�000 people are in need of food assistance. WFP has started food distributions in both countries. Emergency assistance with agricultural inputs such as seeds and fertilizer is also required to enable disaster-affected farming families to restart agricultural production in the next planting season starting in October.
The early outlook for the 2002 crops in most countries of the sub-region is unfavourable due to late onset of the rainy season and extended dry spells. Serious food shortages have started to emerge in several parts of the sub-region, particularly in Eritrea, parts of Ethiopia and Kenya.
In Eritrea, prospects for the current main season crops are bleak following severe and prolonged drought conditions. The spring (short) rains from March to May totally failed, jeopardizing early land preparation for the main (�kiremti�) cropping season and regeneration of pastures. This has been followed by a long dry spell in the important planting months of June and July. The country already faces a tight food supply situation due to the displacement of large numbers of people by the war with Ethiopia, the effects of earlier successive years of drought and continuing repatriation of refugees from neighbouring Sudan. Over one million people are now estimated to be in need of food assistance. The slow response to the 2002 UN Consolidated Appeal (CAP) also remains a major concern to both the Government and humanitarian agencies.
In Ethiopia, an alarming humanitarian situation is emerging in some areas, particularly in the eastern and north-eastern pastoral areas due to drought. In the severely affected Afar Region, large numbers of livestock are reported to have perished and people have started migrating in search food and water. The secondary (belg) season crop, which accounts for up to 10 percent of annual grain production, has also partially failed. The number of people in need of assistance has increased to about 8 million people from 6.5 million in April 2002.
In Kenya, prospects for the 2002 main �long rains� season crops have deteriorated following an early cessation of the rains. Optimistic crop prospects earlier in the year have been dampened following erratic rains, including in some key maize growing areas in the Rift Valley Province. In several pastoral areas previously affected by drought, unusually heavy rains have improved food supply prospects. However, food insecurity persists in the districts of Mandera, Moyale, southern parts of Tana River, West Pokot, Koibatek, Marakwet and Baringo.
In Somalia, prospects for the current main �gu� season cereal crops are generally favourable following good rains at end-April/early-May. However, serious food supply difficulties are reported in northern Gedo, Garbaharay and Burdhubo due to successive years of drought and insecurity. An upsurge in the long conflict and limited access by humanitarian agencies to some areas is cause for serious concern. In north-western Somalia (Somaliland), the food situation is worsening in Sool, Sanag and Nugal regions where below average rains have affected crop and livestock production. The continuing ban on livestock imports from eastern Africa by countries along the Arabian Peninsula has reduced foreign exchange earnings and affected the livelihoods of a large number of pastoralists.
In Sudan, early crop prospects are unfavourable due to below-normal rains in May and June which affected land preparation and planting in parts. Continuous population displacements in the south are also adversely affecting the cropping season. Recent escalation of the long-running conflict is exacerbating an already precarious food security situation. An estimated 3 million IDPs, drought-affected and vulnerable people in different parts of the country depend on food assistance.
In Tanzania, preliminary estimates indicate that food production in 2002 has improved considerably on last year with national maize prices reported to be declining. Adequate availability of water and forage has also improved the food security of most pastoralists. However, localised food shortages are anticipated in some northern parts of the country during the 2002/03 marketing year due to poor short (vuli) rains and the long (masika) rains.
In Uganda, prospects for the 2002 main season crops are generally favourable and the overall food supply situation is satisfactory. Stable, and in most cases reduced, crop prices compared to last year are improving household access to food. However, an escalation of the conflict and insecurity in northern parts of the country has displaced a large number people, adding to the large IDP and refugee population. Overall, nearly 1.5 million people, consisting mainly of IDPs and refugees, are receiving food assistance from humanitarian agencies.
In the Democratic Republic of Congo,persistent fighting continues to displace rural populations, aggravating the already serious food situation. In late July, a large number of new IDPs was reported to have arrived to the town of Kindu fleeing fighting in surrounding areas, where severe food shortages are reported.
There are over 1 million internally displaced people whose food and nutritional situation gives cause for serious concern. The food situation is also precarious in the rest of the country, particularly in the capital city, Kinshasa. A recent consumption survey by FAO in poor and densely populated areas of Kinshasa found significant levels of caloric deficiency and food insecurity. The study also indicated that consumption of protein is marginal in these areas. The main constraint to adequate food consumption was found to be the lack of purchasing power.
In Burundi, the food supply situation has further improved with a good harvest of the 2002 second season foodcrops. Overall, the 2002 aggregate food output is 4 percent higher than last year and 6 percent above the average of the five-year pre-crisis period (1988-93). Prices of basic food commodities remain stable.
While food production has recovered to the levels before the crisis, volumes remain short of the growing population�s requirements. The food deficit has grown over the past years, particularly in terms of cereal equivalent. This reflects an improved production of root and tubers and bananas, and declining outputs of cereals and pulses. Due to successive droughts and a volatile security situation, farmers have switched to crops that are drought resistant or require relatively less crop husbandry. Substantial amounts of food assistance continue to be required for vulnerable populations.
In Rwanda, the output of the recently harvested 2002 second season foodcrops was satisfactory. Abundant rains benefited root and tuber and banana crops, although they adversely affected yields of sorghum and beans in some areas. The food situation has continued to improve following a succession of good harvests, particularly in medium and low altitude areas which were previously affected by dry weather.
Adequate and timely food and non-food assistance has been provided to the population affected by severe floods in April and early May in western areas of the country. However, assistance is needed for the rehabilitation of damaged transport infrastructure.
In the Sahel, prolonged dry weather over most parts of the Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Mauritania and Senegal has adversely affected crop prospects and raised serious concerns over the food supply outlook. Following the first rains in early June, a dry spell from late June through July has seriously affected growing crops. Re-plantings were carried out in several areas but yield potential has been seriously compromised. In Cape Verde, prospects for the maize crop, normally planted from July, are unfavourable due to delayed onset of rains. A recovery in crop prospects will heavily depend on the performance of rainfall in August. By contrast, crop growing conditions have improved in central and eastern parts of the Sahel with increased and better distributed rainfall in most agricultural regions of Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali and Niger.
Following above-average or record crops in the 2001/2002 growing season in all Sahelian countries except Mauritania, the overall food supply situation is satisfactory. Households were able to replenish their stocks, which had been depleted in several countries. However, access to food for some sections of the population may be difficult as above-normal grain prices have been reported in most countries. The sharp rise in cereal prices is mainly due to very low levels of cereal carryover stocks, and activities of speculators as well as outflows to neighbour countries.
In Liberia, following an upsurge of civil strife, the Government declared a state of emergency on 8 February 2002, which was extended by the parliament in mid-May for six months. Increasing clashes between Government forces and rebels in the north, north-west and central regions have displaced over 120�000 people. Some 40�000 Liberian refugees have crossed into Sierra Leone so far this year, while 37�000 have fled to Guinea, C�te d�Ivoire and Ghana. The farming season has been disrupted and many people are now dependent on food assistance. WFP is currently assisting some 100�000 people throughout the country.
In Mauritania, droughts, shortage of irrigation water, and poor distribution of rainfall during the 2001/02 growing season, combined with exceptionally heavy rain and cold temperatures in mid-January, have led to the risk of an unprecedented food crisis. Following release of final production estimates by national statistical services, the aggregate 2001 cereal production is estimated at some 122�177 tonnes, 32 percent lower than the previous year and 27 percent lower than average. Prices of cereals have risen considerably in most markets. In April, WFP launched an Emergency Operation for US$7.5 million (16�230 tonnes of food) to help 250�000 people threatened by serious food shortages.
In Sierra Leone, cereal production in 2001 is estimated at 348�000 tonnes. Rice production should further increase this year reflecting an improved security situation, increased plantings by returning refugees and farmers previously displaced, as well as better conditions for the distribution of agricultural inputs. In an effort to continue helping the country, a UN Consolidated Inter-Agency Appeal was launched late 2001, including an agricultural component with five projects proposed by FAO to facilitate recovery of food production thus reducing dependence on food aid. The intensifying conflict in Liberia has led to an influx of Liberian refugees, while some 55�000 Sierra Leoneans who had been living in Liberia returned home as fighting intensified. This has increased the country�s food aid needs.
In Guinea, the overall food supply situation is favourable following satisfactory harvests in 2000 and 2001. Markets are well supplied, except in the south-east where recurrent rebel incursions from Sierra Leone have severely affected agricultural and marketing activities. The presence of a large refugee population and the persistent instability in neighbouring countries have exacted a heavy toll on the country. According to UNICEF, at least 13�000 new Liberian refugees entered the country in May and June, of whom 80 percent were women and children. Armed clashes in and around the country have also resulted in increasing numbers of internally displaced persons (IDPs).
Cereal import requirements in sub-Saharan Africa in 2002 are set to remain high, reflecting the sharp falls in cereal production in southern Africa mainly due to drought, expected reduced production in eastern Africa and increased population displacements in other parts due to escalation of conflicts. GIEWS latest estimates of 2001 cereal production and 2001/02 import and food aid requirements are summarized in Table II. The total food aid requirement is estimated at 1.81 million tonnes. Food aid pledges for 2001/02, including those carried over from 2000/01, amount to 1.22 million tonnes of which 1.06 million tonnes have been delivered so far.
The food situation in southern Africa is very serious and needs urgent concerted action to stave off large scale starvation. There are also clear indications of imminent serious food shortages in Eritrea, parts of Ethiopia and Kenya due to poor rainfall. Recent escalation of conflicts in Liberia, Somalia and parts of Sudan and Uganda have displaced large numbers of rural people, while insecurity continues to hamper food production in a number of countries. The outlook for current crops is also unfavourable in a number of Sahelian countries, particularly in Senegal, Gambia and Guinea-Bissau.
Against this background, the attention of the international community is drawn to the following priority areas requiring action:
First, all possible efforts should be made to contain the food crisis in southern Africa.
Second, food assistance continues to be needed in several countries of sub-Saharan Africa affected by conflict or adverse weather, including Angola, Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Somalia and Sudan.
Third, the unfavourable food outlook in several countries of eastern Africa and the Sahel calls for early contingency planning for food assistance. These countries include Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Senegal, Gambia and Guinea-Bissau.
Fourth, countries which have suffered serious falls in food production this year will also need assistance with agricultural inputs for the next cropping season. These include Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Lesotho and Swaziland.