FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.3 - December 2002 p.31

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ETHIOPIA

Area: 976 680 sq km
Climate: Northern coastal area and lowlands in south and east are semi-arid to arid; rest of country has a highland rainy climate with mild winter.
Population: 66.5 million (2002 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: US$100 (2001)
Specific characteristics of the country: Low-income food-deficit country
Logistics: Land-locked country, roads inadequate
Major foodcrops: Maize, teff, barley, sorghum, wheat, pulses, enset (false banana)
Marketing year: January/December; Lean season: August-November
Share of cereals in total calorie intake: 69 percent

CURRENT SITUATION

Poor secondary “belg” season rains and erratic main “meher” rainy season have severely affected agricultural production in several parts of the country. Millions of people are now estimated to be in need of urgent food assistance. In response to this alarming situation the Government recently renewed its appeal to the international community for food assistance to about 11 million people for October-December 2002. Preliminary results from the recently concluded FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to Ethiopia indicate that the 2002 cereal crop will be significantly down on last year reflecting late and erratic rains; this indicates that the number of people in need of assistance is expected to be considerably higher. Report of the Mission's findings is expected to be issued soon.

An Emergency Operation jointly approved by FAO and WFP for food assistance to small-scale farmers and drought-affected pastoralists for a period of 12 months (1 April 2002 to 31 March 2003) is being increased in scale to cover the additional requirements. The revised EMOP targets 4.47 million people with a total cost of about US$ 163 million.

CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 2003 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tonnes)

  Wheat Rice Coarse grains Total
     Previous five years average production 1 273 - 7 040 8 313
     Previous five years average imports 694 14 70 778
2003 Domestic Availability 1 520 - 6 200 7 720
     2002 Production (rice in paddy terms) 1 100 - 5 610 6 710
     2002 Production (rice in milled terms) 1 100 - 5 610 6 710
     Possible stock drawdown 420 - 590 1 010
2003 Utilization 2 720 15 6 630 9 365
     Food use 2 610 15 5 905 8 530
       of which: local purchase requirement - - - -
     Non-food use 110 - 725 835
     Exports or re-exports - - - -
     Possible stock build up - - - -
2003 Import Requirement 1 200 15 430 1 645
     Anticipated commercial imports 110 15 180 305
     Food aid needs 1 090 - 250 1 340
Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/year) 38 - 87 125
Indexes        
     2002 Production as % of average:       81
     2003 Import requirement as % of average:       211

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