FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.3 - December 2002 p.61

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ZAMBIA

Area: 741 000 sq km
Climate: Tropical wet-dry; rainy season: November-April
Population: 10.87 million (2002 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: US$320 (2001)
Specific characteristics of the country: Low-income food-deficit country; land-locked country
Logistics: Imports through Dar es Salaam (Tanzania); inadequate rail and road connections
Major foodcrops: Maize, roots, tubers
Marketing year: May/April; Lean season: March-May
Share of cereals in total calorie intake: 70 percent

CURRENT SITUATION

Rains in early December, particularly in western parts, provided needy soil moisture for planting of the 2003 cereals crop which had been delayed by dry weather in November. However, more rains are still needed in eastern areas to avoid reductions in the area planted. To support this season's maize production, following two consecutive poor harvests, the Government has implemented a programme to distribute 48 000 tonnes of fertilizers at subsidized prices to 120 000 small farmers.

Harvesting of winter maize, provisionally estimated at 15 000 tonnes, is temporarily easing the tight food supply situation following the reduced 2002 main season maize output and delayed commercial imports and food aid distributions. Against maize import requirements in marketing year 2002/03 (May/April) of 575 000 tonnes, planned commercial imports by private millers amount to 150 000 tonnes and the Government granted tenders to private traders for additional 300 000 tonnes. However, imports received in the country are much lower and by early November amounted to about 50 000 tonnes - mostly informal trade from Mozambique and Tanzania. Prices of maize, which have remained stable during October have increased markedly in November. The situation could deteriorate rapidly if more imports are not received soon, as millers stocks are expected to last only until early next year.

The number of people in need of relief assistance is estimated at 2.9 million, or one-quarter of the population. The food situation is particularly serious for vulnerable groups in remote areas which have exhausted their food stocks. While WFP monthly food aid requirements are 21 000 tonnes, only half of the targeted population could be reached in October due to shortages in the food aid pipeline. Pledges of food aid by early December amounted to 106 000 tonnes. WFP is using recent cash contributions to purchase maize in the region.

CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 2002/03 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tonnes)

  Wheat Rice Coarse grains Total
     Previous five years average production 77 17 1 004 1 098
     Previous five years average imports 44 20 243 307
2002/03 Domestic Availability 75 6 673 754
     2002 Production (rice in paddy terms) 75 10 663 748
     2002 Production (rice in milled terms) 75 6 663 744
     Possible stock drawdown - - 10 10
2002/03 Utilization 115 17 1 248 1 380
     Food use 111 17 1 067 1 195
       of which: local purchase requirement - - 7 7
     Non-food use 4 - 171 175
     Exports or re-exports - - 10 10
     Possible stock build up - - - -
2002/03 Import Requirement 40 11 575 626
     Anticipated commercial imports 40 11 350 401
     Food aid needs - - 225 225
Current Aid Position        
     Food aid pledges 6 - 100 106
       of which: delivered - - 46 46
     Donor-financed purchases - - 7 7
       of which: for local use - - 7 7
                        for export - - - -
Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/year) 10 2 98 110
Indexes        
     2002 Production as % of average:       68
     2002/03 Import requirement as % of average:       204

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