Annex II
DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF FISH AND FISHERY PRODUCTS IN MEDITERRANEAN COUNTRIES WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO AQUACULTURE PRODUCTS

1. GENERAL DEVELOPMENT OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND

According to FAO projections, the demand for fish and fishery products in the countries of the Mediterranean can be expected to rise by about 2 percent annually, from 4 354 000 t in 1980 to 6 383 000 t in 2000. Growth rates of individual countries however, differ widely, from 0.9 percent (Malta) to 5.3 percent (Libya), as set out in Table 1.

The total catch from the Mediterranean and the Black Sea increased from 940 000 t in 1965 to 1 312 000 t in 1976, which on average represents a growth rate of 2.8 percent/year. (In 1977, the total catch was lower mainly due to a reduction in the U.S.S.R. production.)

The supply projections for the countries under review indicate a supply deficit of about one million tons in 1985. This figure is very much influenced by Morocco for which a demand deficit of 247 000 t is projected. In fact, only Morocco and Tunisia seem to be in a position to meet domestic demand from their own production (Table 2).

A brief survey of the trade balances of the countries selected shows that within the category ‘fresh and frozen fish’, imports exceed exports by over 200 000 t or by more than U.S.$ 300 million in monetary terms in 1976. The trade deficit increased in 1977. Table 3 provides the details for the individual countries.

It appears that apart from Spain, Morocco is the only country with significant trade surplus in this group. However, Moroccan exports, under the entry ‘fresh and frozen fish’, relate almost exclusively to frozen sardine and some tuna and these products cannot be considered competing with the fish species envisaged to be produced from culture operations.

From an overall assessment, it would appear that an increased production in the order of 18 000 t should not present difficulties in respect to markets.

2. MEDITERRANEAN PRODUCTION OF SPECIES UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR CULTURE

Available statistical information on the production of species which are of aquaculture interest is complied in Table 4. The production statistics of Cyprus, Libya and Malta are not broken down to this level of detail and available production figures refer to species groups. It should also be noted that Table 4 contains production outside the Mediterranean (e.g., French and Spanish production of mussels and oysters on the Atlantic coast).

Although the available statistical information is incomplete, the production level in the Mediterranean of these species can be estimated as follows:

It is of interest to note that production figures for earlier years were 1 500 t for sea bass in 1971; 2 300 t for gilthead sea bream in 1972; 3 300 t for Mugil cephalus in 1971; 4 200 t for eel in 1972; 19 600 t for the Mediterranean mussel (M. galloprovincialis) in 1971.

Information on the contribution of aquaculture to these quantities is very scarce and only limited data are available in national publications:

3. ADDITIONAL SUPPLIES FROM CULTURE OF SELECTED SPECIES IN RELATION TO MARKET POTENTIAL

The projected incremental production through aquaculture operations by the year 1985 in Mediterranean countries will increase availability of fish and shellfish as follows (t):

Although the overall assessment showed that no particular difficulties are expected to accommodate these quantities on the markets of the region, it is necessary to review the situation country by country and to evaluate the absorption capacity of domestic markets in respect of the additional quantities expected to be available after five years. In order to form an idea about the absorption capacity of the domestic markets - within the admitted limitations due to insufficient information - the following methodology was used. Taking the growth rate of the demand for fishery products as implied in the FAO demand projections (which are based on income and population growth) as a guide, the maximum permissable growth rate for the supply of the species concerned was calculated on the basis of demand described by the Mission as ‘high’, ‘moderate’ or ‘low’. In the case of demand being described as ‘low’ in a specific country for a specific species, it is assumed that market absorption capacity would not be higher than the overall growth rate of demand for fishery products. The designation ‘moderate’ is assumed to allow absorption up to three times the overall demand growth rate. Whenever demand is indicated as ‘high’, it is assumed that the growth rate for this species could be over three and up to six times as high as the growth rate of demand for fishery products in general. These growth rates are applied to present production levels and the result is taken as an indication of the domestic market absorption potential in 1985. This figure was used to identify possible surplus production by comparing it with the estimated production in 1985. It is realized that this methodology has limitations because the designations are arbitrary; there is no consideration of such crucial factors as prices and international trade and the impact of developments in the capture fisheries are not taken into account. Nevertheless, it is believed that this method allows a first and tentative assessment of market absorption capacity for species expected to be available in 1985 and indicates situations where marketing aspects must be taken into account in the implementation of the programme. Table 5 presents the results of this assessment.

For Egypt, France and Turkey no market constraints are expected for the envisaged production increase and the anticipated production in Israel, Italy, Libya, Malta and Spain should not lead to marketing problems.

In Cyprus, where the contemplated production increase amounts to over 40 percent of the present catch, it will be necessary to investigate marketing aspects very closely. Even with additional market promotion activities, there seems to be the possibility of considerable over-production, which would have to be exported.

With regard to Greece, it appears that additional promotion will be required to expand the market for sea bass and oyster. However, even then there is a possibility of over-production of sea bass for which export markets will have to be developed.

In Morocco, promotional activities will be required for sea bass and oyster and the export possibilities for the latter should also be studied.

For Tunisia, export markets for eel and oyster need to be found if the prospects for these species on the domestic market do not improve despite promotional efforts.

Yugoslavia will have to undertake market promotion for all species for which increased production is foreseen and possibly export markets will have to be identified for sea bass and mussel.

The above general conclusions, as to where and in respect of which species market studies are needed, are summarized in Table 6.

In view of the scarcity of information presently available and the envisaged fast pace of aquaculture development, these market surveys should be undertaken at an early stage of the programme and should include the identification of feasible production targets for the period 1986–90.

One major limitation of the information provided in Table 5 is that international trade has not been taken into account. In 1977, the net imports (imports-exports) of France amounted i.a. to 5 600 t of sole, 34 000 t of mussel, 17 600 t of shrimp and 255 t of sea bream. Net exports of eel reached 2 500 t and of oysters, 1 350 tons. As foreign markets for eel are of interest to some of the countries under review, the main importing countries with quantities of fresh eel received in 1977 from France are given below:

Similarly, in view of the importance of the Federal Republic of Germany's market for eel, countries of origin may be of interest (1977 figures).

It should be noted that around 90 percent of these quantities are consumed smoked.

Production and potential demand in Italy for some aquaculture species was estimated in 1976 as follows (FI:TF/ITA/2 July 1976):

Although the information presented is not complete and may include conflicting figures (due to differences in sources), it can be concluded that export possibilities exist in France, Italy and the Federal Republic of Germany.

Table 1

PROJECTED PER CAPUT AND TOTAL DEMAND FOR FISH AND FISHERY PRODUCTS IN MEDITERRANEAN COUNTRIES (1980–2000)

Table 2

SUPPLY PROJECTIONS OF FISH AND FISHERY PRODUCTS FOR MEDITERRANEAN COUNTRIES (in '000 tons)

Source: FAO Supply Projections

Table 3
TRADE BALANCES FOR FRESH AND FROZEN FISH IN
MEDITERRANEAN COUNTRIES (1976/77)

¹ May include double counting

Source: FAO Yearbook of Fishery Statistics, Vol. 45 (1977)

Table 4
AVAILABLE STATISTICAL INFORMATION ON THE PRODUCTION OF SELECTED SPECIES IN MEDITERRANEAN COUNTRIES
1977 (or last year for which data are available) (in tons)

Sea bass: Dicentrarchus labrax - Bar; Spigola; Mero
Sea bream: Sparus auratus - Dorade royale; Orata; Espavido
Mullet: Mugil cephalus - Mulet; Cefali; Lisa
Sole: Solea solea - Sole; Sogliola; Lenguado
Shrimp: Penaeus kerathurus - Crevette; Mazzancolle; Camarón
Eel: Anguilla anguilla - Anguille; Anguilla; Anguila
Mussel: Mytilus galloprovincialis - Moule; Mitilo/Cozze; Mejillón
Oyster, flat: Ostrea edulis - Huitre plate; Ostrica; Ostra
Oyster, cupped: Crassostrea angulata - Huitre portugaise; Ostrica portughesa; Ostión

^a includes quantities caught outside the Mediterranean

Source: FAO Yearbook of Fishery Statistics, Vol.44 (1977)

Table 5
ESTIMATED SURPLUS¹ IN 1985 BASED ON DOMESTIC MARKET ABSORPTION POTENTIAL FOR SPECIES SELECTED FOR AQUACULTURE DEVELOPMENT
(in tons)

¹ For methodology, see p.4

* The expected surplus, if market promotion is successful. The total expected surplus is given below in brackets.

Table 6
REQUIREMENTS FOR MARKET STUDIES
(D - DOMESTIC MARKET; E - EXPORT MARKETS)