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8.20 PRODUCTION MODELS - SHORT TERM PROJECTION


(6.8)

The following table presents the annual total catches (in tons) and the corresponding catches by fishing unit effort (kg/fishing day of the fleet PESCRUL) of the stock of Deepwater rose shrimp, Parapenaeus longirostris, of the Algarve during the period 1983 to 1994 (Mattos Silva, 1995).

Year

Y (t)

cpue
(kg/day)

1983

538

235

1984

638

131

1985

431

63

1986

99

22

1987

37

8

1988

62

21

1989

437

77

1990

146

28

1991

126

26

1992

53

25

1993

91

41

1994

232

66

Using the following parameters of the integrated Fox model and Yoshimoto & Clarke (1993):

k = 1580 t, q = 0.39 thousand days-1 and r = 0.55 year-1:

1. Project the cpue and the catch in weight for the year 1995, supposing that the fishing effort will be maintained equal to that of 1994 (situation status quo).

2. Determine the target reference points, YMSY, MSY and FMSY and the indices MSY and fMSY.

3. Determine the target reference points, Y0.1, 0.1 and F0.1 and the indices ¯U0.1 and f0.1.

4. Determine the percentages of the carrying capacity corresponding to the target points FMSY and F0.1

5. Based on the results obtained in the previous questions, make your comments on the state of the stock and of its exploitation.

6. Suppose that one intends to reduce the fishing effort in 1995 by about 20 percent relative to the effort of 1994. Project the catch in weight for 1995 and present the variations resulting from that effort reduction on the catch in weight and on the biomass.


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