FAO COMMODITIES AND TRADE TECHNICAL PAPER 1











FAO COMMODITIES AND TRADE TECHNICAL PAPER 1

Medium-term prospects
for agricultural Commodities

PROJECTIONS TO THE YEAR 2010

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS
Rome, 2003

Table of Contents


The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

ISBN 92-5-105077-5
ISSN 1729-9829

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© FAO 2003


TABLE OF CONTENTS

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

FOREWORD

PART I - OVERVIEW OF MAIN FINDINGS, INCLUDING TRADE AND FOOD SECURITY ISSUES

1. Highlights
2. An overview of the medium-term outlook: baseline and alternative scenarios

Population and income assumptions
Historical trends and policy perspectives
The baseline projection: Growth in agricultural production and demand, and main trade issues
Alternative scenarios for basic food products

Table 1.1. Assumptions on population and GDP growth, 1989 to 1999 actual and 2010 projected
Table 1.2. World: Past and projected growth of production, demand and trade
Table 1.3. Developing economies: Past and projected growth of production, demand and trade
Table 1.4. Economies in transition: Past and projected growth of production, demand and trade
Table 1.5. Industrialized economies: Past and projected growth of production, demand and trade

3. Food security prospects for most food-insecure countries

Introduction
Market developments
Slow economic growth
Food availability
Food consumption
Higher income growth scenario

Table 1.6. Consumption profile and projections for most food insecure countries

PART II - MEDIUM-TERM PROSPECTS FOR MAJOR AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY MARKETS

1. Basic food and feed crops

Cereals

Table 2.1. Total cereals: production projections
Table 2.2. Total cereals: utilization projections
Table 2.3. Total cereals: trade projections

Wheat

Table 2.4. Wheat: production projections
Table 2.5. Wheat: utilization projections
Table 2.6. Wheat: trade projections

Rice

Table 2.7. Rice: production projections
Table 2.8. Rice (milled basis): utilization projections
Table 2.9. Rice (milled basis): trade projections

Coarse grains

Table 2.10. Coarse grains: production projections
Table 2.11. Coarse grains: utilization projections
Table 2.12. Coarse grains: trade projections

Oilseeds, oils and oilmeals

Oilcrops
Oils and fats

Table 2.13. Oils and fats: production and consumption projections
Table 2.14. Oils and fats: trade projections

Oilmeals

Table 2.15. Oilmeals: production and consumption projections
Table 2.16. Oilmeals: trade projections

2. Livestock products

Meat
Milk and milk products

Table 2.17. Total meat: projections to 2010
Table 2.18. Bovine meat: projections 2010
Table 2.19. Sheep and goat meat: projections to 2010
Table 2.20. Pigmeat: projections to 2010
Table 2.21. Poultry meat: projections to 2010
Table 2.22. Dairy: projections to 2010

3. Sugar, tropical beverage crops and fruits

Sugar

Table 2.23. Sugar: actual and projected production
Table 2.24. Sugar: actual and projected consumption
Table 2.25. Sugar: actual and projected net trade

Coffee

Table 2.26. Coffee: actual and projected production
Table 2.27. Coffee: actual and projected consumption
Table 2.28. Coffee: actual and projected international trade

Cocoa

Table 2.29. Cocoa: actual and projected production
Table 2.30. Cocoa: actual and projected consumption
Table 2.31. Cocoa: actual and projected international trade

Tea

Table 2.32. Black tea: actual and projected production
Table 2.33. Black tea: actual and projected exports
Table 2.34. Black tea: actual and projected consumption
Table 2.35. Green tea: actual and projected production and exports

Bananas

Table 2.36. Bananas: actual and projected exports
Table 2.37. Bananas: imports

Citrus fruit

Oranges
Tangerines
Lemons and limes
Grapefruit

Table 2.38.Total citrus: actual and projected production
Table 2.39. Oranges: actual and projected production
Table 2.40. Tangerines: actual and projected production
Table 2.41. Lemons and limes: actual and projected production
Table 2.42. Grapefruit: actual and projected production
Table 2.43. Total citrus, fresh: actual consumption and projected demand
Table 2.44. Total citrus, processed: actual consumption and projected demand
Table 2.45. Oranges, fresh: actual consumption and projected demand
Table 2.46. Oranges, processed: actual consumption and projected demand
Table 2.47. Tangerines, fresh: actual consumption and projected demand
Table 2.48. Tangerines, processed: actual consumption and projected demand
Table 2.49. Lemons and limes, fresh: actual consumption and projected demand
Table 2.50. Lemons and limes, processed: actual consumption and projected demand
Table 2.51. Grapefruit, fresh: actual consumption and projected demand
Table 2.52. Grapefruit, processed: actual consumption and projected demand
Table 2.53. Total citrus, fresh: international trade and projected export availabilities and import requirements
Table 2.54. Total citrus, processed: international trade and projected export availabilities and import requirements
Table 2.55. Oranges, fresh: international trade and projected export availabilities and import requirements
Table 2.56. Oranges, processed: international trade and projected export availabilities and import requirements
Table 2.57. Tangerines, fresh: international trade and projected export availabilities and import requirements
Table 2.58. Lemons and limes, fresh: international trade and projected export availabilities and import requirements
Table 2.59. Lemons and limes, processed: international trade and projected export availabilities and import requirements
Table 2.60. Grapefruit, fresh: international trade and projected export availabilities and import requirements
Table 2.61. Grapefruit, processed: international trade and projected export availabilities and import requirements

Tropical fruits

Table 2.62. Tropical fruits: actual and projected production
Table 2.63. Tropical fruits: actual and projected imports

4. Agricultural raw materials

Natural rubber

Table 2.64. Natural rubber, actual and projected production
Table 2.65. Natural rubber, actual and projected consumption
Table 2.66. Natural rubber, actual and projected exports of producing countries
Table 2.67. Natural rubber, actual and projected imports

Cotton

Table 2.68. Raw cotton, actual and projected production
Table 2.69. Cotton, actual and projected mill consumption
Table 2.70. Raw cotton, actual and projected exports
Table 2.71. Raw cotton, actual and projected imports

Jute, kenaf and allied fibres

Table 2.72. Jute: area planted and fibre production, actual and projected
Table 2.73. Jute: apparent consumption, actual and projected
Table 2.74. India: exports of diversified jute products
Table 2.75. Jute: net imports, actual and projected
Table 2.76. Jute: net exports, actual and projected

Hard fibres

Sisal and henequen
Abaca
Coir
Hard fibres: issues and uncertainties

Table 2.77. Hard fibres: production, actual and projected
Table 2.78. Hard fibres:global exports, actual and projected
Table 2.79. Hard fibres: global imports, actual and projected
Table 2.80. Hard fibres: global apparent consumption, actual and projected

Hides and skins

Table 2.81. Bovine hides: production, actual and projected
Table 2.82. Bovine hides: consumption, actual and projected
Table 2.83. Bovine hides: net trade, actual and projected
Table 2.84. Sheep and goat skins: production, actual and projected
Table 2.85. Sheep and goat skins: consumption, actual and projected
Table 2.86.Sheep and goat skins: net trade, actual and projected

Tobacco

Table 2.87. Tobacco leaf, actual and projected production
Table 2.88. Tobacco leaf consumption
Table 2.89. Tobacco leaf, actual and projected exports (dry weight)
Table 2.90. Tobacco leaf, actual and projected imports (dry weight)

ANNEX 1 - SUMMARY METHODOLOGY AND MAIN ASSUMPTIONS

ANNEX 2 - WORLD FOOD MODEL SPECIFICATIONS

ANNEX 3. BIBLIOGRAPHY

BACK COVER


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