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Rice

Production

Global rice production is projected to rise at less than 1 percent per year in the current decade, down from 1.6 percent in the 1990s. As a result, by 2010 world production would reach 440 million tonnes, in milled equivalent, up from 400 million tonnes in the 1998 - 2000 base period. Virtually all the expansion would stem from an intensification of production, with hardly any increase in area anticipated. At the same time, the loss of yield momentum observed in the previous two decades is expected to persist in the medium term.

Such a growth pattern is expected to dominate in Asia where pressure on labour, land and water resources from other growth sectors will limit the scope for an expansion of rice cultivation. In South America, a reduction in government support might stall an expansion in plantings in the next decade. At the same time, the modernization of the sector should sustain a dynamic expansion in yields in the region. Unlike in the other regions, production growth in Africa is expected to rely almost equally on area and yield gains. Little change in production is projected for the developed countries, while the economies in transition might experience dynamic growth, although not sufficient to allow a full recovery to levels of the early 1990s.

Consumption

Global demand for rice in the next decade is expected to expand at slightly more than one percent per year, down from 1.7 percent in the 1990s. By 2010, total rice utilization in the developing countries is projected to reach 424 million tonnes, 46 million tonnes more than the 1998 - 2000 average, while the overall increase would amount to about 3 million tonnes for the combined total of the developed countries and the economies in transition. Average per capita food consumption is anticipated to grow marginally from the base period at 58.2 kg per person. For the developing country group, the rise in population should be the determining factor underpinning rice demand in the next decade, as per capita consumption could dip somewhat. By contrast, growth in per capita intake should sustain the increase in consumption in the transition economies.

Although the utilization of rice for feed increased in recent years, rice remains essentially a grain for human consumption and a staple food for about half of the world population. Worldwide, per capita rice food consumption is projected to grow marginally between the base period and 2010, although a slight contraction is foreseen in the developing countries reflecting mainly changes in the dietary patterns in Southeast Asia. By contrast, per capita consumption is likely to rise in Africa, Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries and among the developed and transition countries.

Trade

World rice trade is projected to expand by about 2.2 percent per year to 31.4 million tonnes in 2010 compared to the average of 24.6 million tonnes in the base period. Asian countries are expected to remain the main destination, absorbing 46 percent of the projected volume or 14.6 million tonnes, about 2 million tonnes more than in 1998 - 2000. Shipments to the Near East are expected to rise by less than 2 percent per year to reach 5.4 million tonnes, much slower than the 5 percent annual growth experienced in the 1990s. Imports into Africa are projected to rise by 2.5 million tonnes, with large increases expected in Cote d’Ivoire, Madagascar, Nigeria and Senegal. By contrast, imports by LAC are envisaged to change little, since smaller shipments to Brazil would offset some increases in Mexico, Haiti and Colombia. Together, the developed countries and economies in transition are anticipated to import about 5.6 million tonnes in 2010, 2.1 million tonnes more than in the base period.

By 2010, Asian countries are projected to supply more than three quarters of the international rice market, with the top two exporters, Thailand and Viet Nam, expanding both volumes and shares in total trade. Exports from Cambodia, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic and Myanmar could also surge, as they take advantage of the opening of markets under preferential schemes, such as the EU "Everything but Arms". On the other hand, China could experience reductions as production growth stalls. Exports from both Pakistan and India are anticipated to hover around 2 million tonnes, each, not too different from the base period, with the bulk of the shipments likely to be the high-priced Basmati rice. In the other regions, Argentina, Egypt and Uruguay are anticipated to increase their exports substantially. Developed countries' share of the rice market is projected to shrink from 17 percent in the base period to 12 percent in 2010, as deliveries from the United States fall by the end of the decade. Exports from Australia, however, are projected to rise to some extent.

Issues and uncertainties

In the past three years, China has embarked in new cereal policies that have triggered a strong contraction in production, resulting in a sizeable stock drawdown to bridge the gap with consumption. The Government is not expected to maintain this production policy in the medium term. However, if it did, the country would have to resort massively to imports, which would have a very strong impact on the world rice economy. The opening of a 5.3 million tonne tariff quota by the country in 2004, as part of China’s WTO accession commitments, would facilitate access to the country’s rice domestic market, but the requirement might be much larger, of the order of the 12 million tonne average drawdown of stocks, estimated to have been released by the country between 1999 and 2003. While purchases of this magnitude would boost the volume of international trade, they would also make international prices soar, with indirect effects on the rest of the world production, consumption, trade and stocks as well as on world food security.

Another area of uncertainty that might have a huge bearing on the rice economy is linked to the behaviour of the African countries. The region provided much momentum to the international rice market, since imports to the continent more than doubled between 1995 and 2002, accounting in the latter year for almost 30 percent of overall trade. Governments in the region have shown growing concern over the size of their rice deliveries and foreign exchange outflow. Several of them (in particular Nigeria, the leading rice importer in the region) already took action in 2003 to slow the inflow of rice. A reversal of African countries’ relatively open trade policies for rice would have strong depressing effects on international prices, volume of trade, and on the geographical pattern of production.

Table 2.7. Rice: production projections


AREA

YIELD

PRODUCTION 2/


Base

Projection

Growth Rates

Base

Projection

Growth Rates

Base

Projection

Growth Rates


Period 1/

2010

89-99

99-2010

Period 1/

2010

89-99

99-2010

Period 1/

2010

89-99

99-2010















(... 000 hectares...)

(...% per year...)

(.... tonnes/ha....)

(...% per year...)

(... 000 tonnes...)

(...% per year...)














WORLD

153 965

152 794

0.4

-0.1

2.6

2.9

1.2

1.0

399 555

440 315

1.6

0.9














DEVELOPING

149 887

148 970

0.5

-0.1

2.5

2.8

1.2

1.0

381 694

421 898

1.7

0.9














AFRICA

7 494

8 694

2.2

1.4

1.5

1.7

1.4

1.4

11 080

15 011

3.6

2.8

NORTH AFRICA

617

640

4.3

0.3

6.1

7.5

3.0

1.9

3 765

4 817

7.4

2.3

SUB SAHARA

6 876

8 054

2.0

1.4

1.1

1.3

0.1

1.6

7 315

10 194

2.1

3.1


Côte d'Ivoire

550

676

0.1

1.9

1.0

1.4

3.1

3.2

543

947

3.2

5.2


Ghana

117

180

7.0

4.0

1.1

1.6

1.8

3.2

133

290

8.9

7.4


Madagascar

1 207

1 353

0.6

1.0

1.4

1.5

0.0

0.9

1 658

2 052

0.5

2.0


Mali

321

445

4.3

3.0

1.5

2.0

4.7

2.4

496

891

9.2

5.5


Mozambique

167

210

14.1

2.1

0.7

1.1

-1.2

3.8

118

224

12.7

6.0


Nigeria

2 081

2 253

4.8

0.7

0.9

1.0

-2.4

0.7

1 970

2 304

2.3

1.4


Senegal

81

105

0.5

2.4

1.5

1.7

1.4

1.3

123

183

1.9

3.7














LATIN AMER. & CARIB.

6 298

6 502

-1.6

0.3

2.3

2.9

3.5

2.1

14 692

19 060

1.9

2.4

CENTRAL AMERICA

354

393

-0.6

0.9

2.5

3.0

2.0

1.5

888

1 163

1.3

2.5


Mexico

89

92

-4.1

0.3

3.1

3.4

2.6

1.0

274

314

-1.6

1.3

CARIBBEAN

293

299

-0.2

0.2

2.2

2.7

-0.5

1.9

644

809

-0.7

2.1


Cuba

116

112

-2.8

-0.3

1.8

2.6

-1.4

3.0

212

286

-4.2

2.8


Haiti

51

46

3.0

-1.1

1.4

1.5

-2.9

0.4

74

68

0.0

-0.7

SOUTH AMERICA

5 642

5 810

-1.7

0.3

2.3

2.9

3.9

2.1

13 161

17 089

2.1

2.4


Argentina

230

364

7.9

4.3

3.5

4.0

2.7

1.1

810

1 442

10.8

5.4


Brazil

3 591

3 323

-3.6

-0.7

2.0

2.5

3.9

2.4

7 028

8 444

0.2

1.7


Colombia

445

484

0.1

0.8

2.9

3.4

0.5

1.7

1 274

1 667

0.7

2.5


Ecuador

356

453

2.5

2.2

2.0

2.0

0.8

0.4

700

927

3.3

2.6


Uruguay

193

200

8.3

0.4

4.2

4.8

2.0

1.2

814

970

10.4

1.6














ASIA

136 095

133 767

0.5

-0.2

2.6

2.9

1.1

0.9

355 908

387 814

1.6

0.8

NEAR EAST

860

1 007

0.7

1.4

2.3

2.5

1.1

0.9

1 979

2 556

1.7

2.4


Iran Islamic Rep.

579

637

1.4

0.9

2.6

2.9

1.1

0.9

1 489

1 816

2.6

1.8


Iraq

68

115

0.1

4.9

1.4

1.7

-2.7

2.0

92

194

-2.6

7.0


Saudi Arabia



0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0



0.0

0.0


Turkey

64

80

1.6

2.1

3.2

3.6

0.4

1.2

201

289

2.0

3.3

SOUTH ASIA

60 069

59 512

0.6

-0.1

2.0

2.2

1.5

1.2

118 817

133 511

2.1

1.1


Bangladesh

10 541

10 946

0.2

0.3

2.2

2.6

2.7

1.7

22 686

28 368

2.9

2.1


India

44 712

43 968

0.6

-0.2

1.9

2.1

1.2

0.9

86 810

94 466

1.8

0.8


Pakistan

2 438

2 226

1.6

-0.8

2.0

2.5

2.6

2.0

4 877

5 551

4.2

1.2


Sri Lanka

825

752

1.0

-0.8

2.3

2.7

0.7

1.5

1 906

2 049

1.7

0.7

SOUTH EAST ASIA

75 165

73 247

0.4

-0.2

3.1

3.4

1.0

0.9

235 112

251 747

1.4

0.6


Cambodia

1 981

2 335

2.0

1.5

1.2

1.5

2.6

1.7

2 393

3 409

4.6

3.3


China (mainland)

30 820

27 827

-0.5

-0.9

4.3

4.8

1.6

1.0

133 600

134 785

1.1

0.1


Indonesia

11 824

11 878

1.3

0.0

2.7

3.0

-0.6

0.9

31 913

35 442

0.7

1.0


Korea DPR

563

629

-3.0

1.0

2.4

3.5

-3.8

3.6

1 341

2 204

-6.7

4.6


Korea Rep.

1 066

896

-1.6

-1.6

4.9

5.3

0.5

0.7

5 217

4 720

-1.1

-0.9


Malaysia

689

685

0.2

-0.1

1.9

2.1

1.2

0.9

1 320

1 447

1.4

0.8


Myanmar

5 991

6 747

2.5

1.1

2.1

2.1

1.1

0.1

12 408

14 202

3.6

1.2


Philippines

3 885

4 311

1.3

1.0

2.0

2.2

0.9

0.9

7 583

9 271

2.2

1.8


Thailand

9 748

9 153

0.2

-0.6

1.6

2.1

1.9

2.2

16 060

19 168

2.1

1.6


Viet Nam

7 561

7 664

2.3

0.1

2.7

3.2

2.9

1.3

20 693

24 148

5.2

1.4














OCEANIA

10

8

-3.1

-2.0

1.4

1.6

-0.8

1.1

14

13

-3.8

-0.9














DEVELOPED

3 653

3 381

-0.1

-0.7

4.7

5.1

0.4

0.8

17 056

17 284

0.3

0.1














NORTH AMERICA

1 323

1 267

1.6

-0.4

4.6

5.0

0.2

0.7

6 081

6 277

1.7

0.3


United States

1 323

1 267

1.6

-0.4

4.6

5.0

0.2

0.7

6 081

6 277

1.7

0.3














WESTERN EUROPE

400

340

1.3

-1.5

4.5

5.2

0.6

1.4

1 790

1 765

1.9

-0.1

EU(15)

400

340

1.3

-1.5

4.5

5.2

0.6

1.4

1 790

1 765

1.9

-0.1














OCEANIA

142

154

3.3

0.7

5.9

7.1

1.3

1.6

841

1 086

4.6

2.3


Australia

142

154

3.3

0.7

5.9

7.1

1.3

1.6

841

1 086

4.6

2.3














OTHER

1 787

1 620

-1.6

-0.9

4.7

5.0

0.5

0.7

8 345

8 156

-1.1

-0.2


Japan

1 786

1 619

-1.6

-0.9

4.7

5.0

0.5

0.7

8 343

8 154

-1.1

-0.2


South Africa

1

1

0.0

0.1

2.0

2.1

0.0

0.4

2

2

0.0

0.5














TRANSITIONAL

425

442

-5.3

0.4

1.9

2.6

-2.0

2.8

805

1 132

-7.2

3.2














EASTERN EUROPE

14

17

-16.5

1.8

2.4

3.3

3.8

3.0

33

55

-13.3

4.9

CIS

411

426

0.0

0.3

1.9

2.5

0.0

2.8

772

1 077

0.0

3.1


Kazakhstan

72

80

0.0

1.0

2.0

2.8

0.0

3.0

144

223

0.0

4.0


Russian Fed.

155

126

0.0

-1.9

2.1

3.2

0.0

4.1

321

404

0.0

2.1


Uzbekistan

121

149

0.0

1.9

1.7

2.0

0.0

1.4

205

295

0.0

3.4














BALTIC



0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0



0.0

0.0














LIFDC

117 815

116 567

0.4

-0.1

2.6

2.9

1.0

0.9

308 790

336 557

1.5

0.8

LDC

24 955

27 482

1.0

0.9

1.8

2.1

1.9

1.2

45 953

57 441

3.0

2.0

NFIDC

5 202

5 262

1.5

0.1

2.6

3.3

2.8

2.1

13 533

17 111

4.4

2.2

1/ 1998-2000 Average
2/ Milled equivalent


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