6. The outlook for fisheries and aquaculture in Asia and the Pacific

6.1 Global and regional trends

The International Food Policy Research Institute in collaboration with the WorldFish Centre has recently published "Fish to 2020"^[46]. Based on a global supply and demand model the study examined six different scenarios. Although each of the scenarios provided some differences, especially in timing of critical trends, the study predicts that production and consumption will continue to increase in developing States, but slow down in developed States resulting in an increase in the price of fish, especially fish meal and fish oil, wild fish, and high-value fish (assuming that consumers will not greatly shift their preferences to other commodities such as poultry as fish prices increase).

Consumption trends will drive an increase in the demand for fishery products for food, partly due to changing food habits but also due to the increasing purchasing power of several developing States. Most forecasts for the future predict a stable or decreasing supply from capture fisheries and an increasing proportion coming from aquaculture. As a result of these trends the price of fishery products is also expected to increase since in most of the projected scenarios, supply cannot keep up with demand. Projected rises in prices between 1997 and 2020 are about 15 percent, and significantly for aquaculture, increases in prices of fish meal and fish oil are predicted to be up to 18 percent.

Fish trade is increasing rapidly with roughly 40 percent of global fish output being traded across State borders. This proportion is considered to be high compared to that of meat (less than 10 percent). For such a perishable product, this high proportion of traded output is surprising, but it mirrors changes in diets world wide, and turnarounds in supply and demand. Globally, the main source of fish production has shifted from developed to developing States and the share of aquaculture has increased substantially. Seafood demand from developing States is expanding rapidly and major shifts in seafood and aquaculture production, trade, and consumption world wide are expected to continue over the next 10-20 years with an increasing south-south trade in seafood in relation to north-south trade.

Developing States are expected to remain net exporters overall, but the percentage of their production exported is expected to decrease due to rising domestic demand. There appears to be a decreasing trend of fish consumption due to increased urbanization; however this does not seem likely to offset the increased demand for fish in developing States.

6.2 Coastal fisheries

Based on current trends, production from capture fisheries in the Asia-Pacific region will decline over the next 10-20 years unless excess fishing capacity and fishing effort is greatly reduced. Increased production in the North Sea after two world wars, for example, showed that heavily exploited fish stocks can recover when released from their heavy fishing pressure. Current examples include several fish stocks in waters of the USA where fishing has been drastically reduced. Ecosystem modelling has also shown that the situation can be reversed. However, it is unknown to what extent severely altered ecosystems such as the Yellow Sea and the Gulf of Thailand would recover.

It could be argued that "fishing down the food chain" is both a good and an unavoidable consequence of the growing demand for fish in that removing predators may lead to more of their prey being available for humans. This simplistic view, however, seldom holds up in practice as it often leads to increases in, or outbursts of, previously supressed species such as invertebrates. The ecosystem changes associated with heavy fishing are not clearly understood, but it is known that the effects can be increased variability and unpredictability.

There have been few studies on the benefits that would accrue if fishing effort could be reduced. One example for the Gulf of Thailand was given earlier (Table 1). Another estimate made for the Philippines showed that for the demersal and small-scale pelagic fisheries in shallow coastal waters in the mid-1980s, the level of effort was 150-300 percent needed to gain the maximum economic yield resulting in a wastage of US$ 450 million^[47]. Although much of the trash fish currently being caught consists of species that would not grow to much larger sizes; about 30 percent is thought to consist of juveniles of commercially high value fish species. If fishing pressure would be reduced on these species, they could make a much more significant contribution to catches and to incomes.

Many States in the Asia-Pacific region have agreed to a number of high level principles relating to fisheries and sustainable development (e.g. the World Summit on Sustainable Development; the UNCED's Agenda 21, and the FAO Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries). Although these principles are often stated in legislation and policies, this alone will not bring about the improved management that is needed. Decisions need to be made on how to implement them, especially in the context of smallscale fisheries. A key factor to turn around the current trends would be for States to resolve the competing policy imperatives of:

i) optimal and sustainable use of fish resources and their supporting ecosystems;

ii) economic objectives, especially in relation to either small- or large-scale fisheries;

iii) social objectives, including maximizing employment and improving livelihoods;

iv) objectives related to equity, including access for only small-scale fisheries; and

v) any other objectives (for example trade liberalization, market access etc.) which may have impacts on this sub-sector

Very few fisheries (both globally and in the Asia-Pacific region) have adequately considered and resolved the trade offs among these objectives. For example, trade-off agreements need to be reached on:

• Equity versus efficiency;

• Maximising sustainable yields (and economic benefits) versus widespread employment and providing a safety net for the poor;

• Export-oriented production versus national food security;

• Imports versus national self sufficiency;

• Large-scale versus small-scale fisheries;

• Long- and short-term management goals;

• Market liberalization versus protection of smallscale fisheries; and

• Foreign fishing vessels versus local fleets

In fisheries, this lack of clarity with respect to objectives often leads to conflict amongst competing sub-sectors (e.g. small-scale fishing versus large-scale fishing) resulting in many management interventions implemented only to alleviate the symptoms, but not solving the problem itself.

The obvious dilemma in relation to reducing capacity and fishing effort in the Asia-Pacific region is that a large part of the production comes from small-scale operators, and they are often totally dependent on fishery resources for their livelihood. Despite efforts to "modernize" small-scale fisheries in the region, for a variety of reasons these have not been successful and the level of small-scale fishing activity has not decreased. Given the significant contribution that small-scale fisheries make to food security and poverty alleviation, the role of small-scale fisheries and how they fit into the multiple activities of rural economies should be carefully examined. Unlike large-scale industrial fisheries, they have low visibility and receive little attention from policy makers. They are often open access enterprises that contribute little to the national GDP and command little political attention and support through research, subsidies etc. As such, they tend to be dealt with through project work funded by donors.

The vision for small-scale fisheries should be one in which their contribution to sustainable development is fully realized and their contribution to national economies and food security is recognized, valued and enhanced. This will require a paradigm shift in policy, resulting in fishers, fish workers and other stakeholders having opportunities to participate in decision-making processes. In doing so, their capability and human capacity should be enhanced, which subsequently leads to a situation where social, economic and ecological systems are managed in an integrated and sustainable manner, thereby reducing conflict. The move towards decentralization and co-management in the region is an attempt to achieve this.

Many projects across the region have demonstrated that co-management cannot be achieved without using a more holistic livelihoods approach (i.e. dealing with all the issues outside of fisheries such as health, education, alternative livelihoods, etc.) and empowering communities through improved organization to enable them to have a greater say in issues that affect their future. Larger issues such as poverty, inadequate sanitation, inadequate water supplies etc. have to be addressed before more responsible fishing is possible. It is probably the right time to take stock of the lessons learnt through these projects and formulate "best practices" for the guidance of future activities. APFIC is currently putting together a database of project sites to help in this analysis.

Co-management will also require considerable capacity building at all levels so that all those involved can communicate common goals and understand each other's roles and responsibilities. This needs to be done through "on-the-job" training involving tackling every day issues and finding solutions that are practical and feasible.

Some progress is being made through a number of projects in the region that attempt to address conservation and management issues by first dealing with larger problems of poverty (hunger and underdevelopment), in terms of health, education and general human well-being. However, these should be considered in the context of national and regional aspirations, not just as isolated projects supported by donors and non-governmental organizations.

The reduction of industrial fisheries fleets should result in an increase in net benefits from the resources, via taxation on the remaining fishers for example, useful for easing the transition of those who have had to stop fishing. It could also be argued that if more fish are available for small-scale fisheries, there would be more marketing and distribution jobs and alternative employment. This would be in contrast to the present situation where taxes from outside the fisheries are used as subsidies to maintain fishing at levels that are unsustainable. The short-term cost to cut down on the number of large vessels, e.g. trawlers, probably justifies the investment and in the long run there would be significantly lower investment and operating costs in the fleet. More detailed analyses on the costs and benefits of improved fishery management are required.

6.3 Offshore fisheries

Global fisheries have been characterized by a steady expansion of fishing from inshore local regions to further offshore fishing grounds as the local stocks became depleted. Many believe that this trend can be continued in the Asia-Pacific region and many States in the region include further expansion into offshore fisheries as part of their future fishery plans. Although the potential is relatively unknown, it is dangerous to assume that the offshore regions will supply fish in quantities that we are familiar with in inshore regions. It is well known that biological productivity declines exponentially as one moves away from the coast. Of the 363 million km² of ocean, in less than seven percent are waters with a depth of less than 200 m, and this continental shelf area accounts for 90 percent of the global fish catch. The rest comes from deep-water demersal fish and highly migratory fish such as tuna that roam the vast desert-like expanse of the open ocean. It is unlikely that this percentage will change dramatically over the next 10-20 years.

There have been some resource surveys for deep-water demersal fish in the region, in particular, those done by India. The Fishery Survey of India (FSI) is responsible for survey and assessment of marine fishery resources of the Indian EEZ. With its headquarters at Mumbai, the Institute has seven operational bases at Porbandar, Mumbai, Mormugao and Cochin along the west coast; Madras and Visakhapatnam along the east coast and Port Blair in the Andaman & Nicobar Islands. A total of 12 oceangoing survey vessels have been deployed for fisheries resources survey and monitoring. At the time of writing, FAO did not have access to these results and would be interested in hearing more on this subject. Experience from other parts of the world, however, has shown that many of the scarce deepwater demersal stocks are long-lived (over 100 years) species of low productivity and many have already been overexploited in many temperate waters. FAO's Fishery Committee of the Eastern Central Atlantic (CECAF) has just decided that, although current catch levels of the Alfonsino (Beryx decadactylus) and similar deep-water fishes in the CECAF zone are low, CECAF States will begin submitting annual reports on high-seas fishing activities for non-tuna species. The Committee stated that "Any exploitation of these species should be carefully designed, taking into account the very low level of sustainable yield of these fish populations and the isolation of sea-mount benthic ecosystems."

Purse-seine fishery in the Western and Central Pacific (WCPO) has accounted for around 55-60 percent of total catch in the area since the early 1990s, with annual catches in the range of 790 000-1 200 000 tonnes. The majority of the WCPO purseseine catch (>70 percent) is taken by the four main distant-water fishing fleets (Japan, Korea RO, Taiwan POC and USA), which currently number around 140 vessels.

The current catch history for tuna in the WCPO is shown in Figure 41 and the status of tuna species in the WCPO and the Indian Ocean is given in Table 25.

There has been an increasing contribution from the growing number of Pacific Island domestic vessels in recent years (40 vessels in 2000), with the balance from Philippines fisheries and a variety of other fleets, including a small seasonally active Spanish fleet.

Assessments of the stocks in both the WCPO and the Indian Ocean highlight the variability in recruitment in the faster growing more productive tuna species (skipjack and yellowfin), driven to a large extent by climatic changes such as the El Niño. Skipjack tuna, in particular is considered as biologically underexploited at the moment (although there is some concern over economic overfishing resulting in low prices in the Pacific). In contrast, the longer-lived slower growing bigeye tuna is showing signs of overfishing in both oceans. Scientists warn that because of the multi-species nature of the purse seine and longline fishery the impacts of fishing on skipjack could have a negative impact on more vulnerable species.

In this respect, they advise that the Tuna Commissions should consider how to implement management measures to address over-fishing and alleviate over- fished stock conditions in the future.

In summary, it would appear that any expansion into offshore waters will be limited for both pelagic and demersal fisheries, unless more selective fishing gears for tunas can be developed. Overall, therefore, even to maintain the status quo in capture fisheries in the region, especially in terms of providing food security and poverty alleviation for the region's poor, the many issues highlighted in this review will need to be addressed. It is unlikely that any State can do this unilaterally, and a concerted and collaborative effort will be required.

6.4 Aquaculture

Since the yield from capture fisheries is not expected to increase greatly, there is an emphasis being placed on the aquaculture sector's ability to provide increasing quantities of fish to satisfy increasing demand in all regions. Several conditions must be satisfied in order that aquaculture be able to achieve this expectation.

The massive expansion of aquaculture required will need increased production area, as well as greatly increased intensity of production. Obtaining the land and water may be possible if the value of fishery products increases so that aquaculture can challenge other production systems for the use of the feeds, land and water required to effect this production. Alternatively, increased efficiency in the use of water and intensified production will reduce land requirements. The current intensity of production in many States of Asia is such that there is considerable scope for increased production per unit area. However, the increased feed usage and probable increased water requirement will be a constraint. The current reliance on fish meal as a protein source for aquaculture feeds is a potential constraint (this has already been discussed in the previous section).

Figure 41
Tuna catches in the Western and Central Pacific region

Table 25
Status of tuna species in the Western and Central Pacific and in the Indian Ocean

Aquaculture currently competes with the livestock sector for fish meal for feeds. If fish value increases the "purchasing power" of aquaculture may draw this resource away from the livestock sector. There are calls for aquaculture to reduce its reliance on fish meals and increase the efficiency of their utilization. Whilst more efficient use of fish meal is possible, reduced reliance may be more difficult to achieve. In the face of increasing purchasing power of aquaculture feeds, it may be the livestock sector which makes the greater progress towards reducing reliance on fish meals.

One scenario considered in the IFPRI/WFC report is that a rapid expansion of both the scale and efficiency of aquaculture could lead to decreasing fish prices (this was the only scenario where fish price decreased). The efficient culture of herbivorous/omnivorous fish is already a reality; however, it is apparent that current trends indicate that aquaculture is drifting towards higher value species that present greater profit margins. This trend is even being seen in species that are traditionally considered to be relatively low input species such as tilapia. The production of tilapia in several States is moving away from greenwater fertilized systems towards pellet-fed intensified systems. This may be a reflection on the available areas for aquaculture and increasing restriction on water availability and to some extent environmental requirements. The production of higher value aquaculture species allows investment in more intensive production systems and their associated effluent treatments. The higher value products may also be easier to market and often have greater export potential.

It is inevitable that as fish prices rise, there will be a tendency for poorer parts of national populations to shift towards cheaper forms of meat such as chicken and pork. The question is whether fish in the Asia-Pacific region will remain a common (and even central) part of the diet of most people or increasingly become a luxury food item.