Economic and Social Department

 global information and early warning system on food and agriculture

 food outlook
No. 4 Rome, December 2004

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Highlights

BASIC FACTS OF THE WORLD CEREAL SITUATION

Cereal Supply/Demand Roundup

Wheat

Coarse Grains

Rice

EL NIÑO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

Meat and Meat Products

Milk and Milk Products

Oilseeds, Oils and Oilmeals

Consultation on Bananas

Sugar

Consultation on Sugar

Appendix Tables

STATISTICAL NOTE

BASIC FACTS OF THE WORLD CEREAL SITUATION

 2000/2001 2001/2002 2002/2003 2003/2004
estimate
2004/2005
forecast
Change 2004/05
over 2003/2004
WORLD PRODUCTION 1/(million tonnes)(percentage)
Wheat585.9588.4569.4560.0620.410.8
Coarse grains876.7919.5879.9933.6 1 013.18.5
Rice, milled401.0400.9382.1389.4408.24.8
(paddy)(599.7)(599.6)(571.9)(583.2)(610.6)4.7
All cereals (incl. milled rice) 1 863.6 1 908.7 1 831.5 1 883.0 2 041.6 8.4
Developing countries 1 009.2 1 029.2998.1 1 045.4 1 076.23.0
Developed countries854.5879.5833.3837.6965.415.3
WORLD TRADE 2/      
Wheat 100.9109.6108.6103.0100.5 - 3/
Coarse grains108.4105.4106.9106.0102.5- 3/
Rice (milled)24.228.127.726.125.2- 3/
All cereals 233.5 243.1 243.2 235.1 228.2 - 3/
of which: Food aid shipments 4/8.97.58.37.4  
WORLD UTILIZATION      
Wheat 589.2598.8604.0600.4614.42.3
Coarse grains904.3925.0917.5948.3976.83.0
Rice (milled)402.8404.6406.1406.9412.21.3
All cereals 1 896.4 1 928.4 1 927.6 1 955.6 2 003.5 2.4
Developing countries 1 144.9 1 163.0 1 164.3 1 189.0 1 200.51.0
Developed countries751.5765.4763.3766.6802.94.7
Per Caput Food Use (kg/year) 
Developing countries160.2160.0158.4159.3158.9-0.2
Developed countries132.1131.8131.3131.0130.9-0.1
WORLD STOCKS 5/(million tonnes) 
Wheat 243.7235.3202.2159.2161.41.4
Coarse grains207.7197.4162.8147.3180.722.6
Rice (milled)148.7142.4118.5102.998.8-4.0
All cereals 600.1 575.1 483.5 409.4 440.8 7.7
Developing countries438.6406.3339.1286.7275.3-4.0
Developed countries161.4168.8144.5122.8165.634.9
EXPORT PRICES 4/(US$/tonne) 
Rice (Thai, 100%, 2nd grade) 1/207177197201241 6/19.9 7/
Wheat (U.S. No.2 HRW)128127161161155 8/ 2.6 7/
Maize (U.S. No.2 Yellow)869010711499 8/ -3.9 7/
OCEAN FREIGHT RATES 4/      
From U.S. Gulf to Egypt15.015.016.737.045.8 8/ 117.5 7/
LOW-INCOME FOOD-DEFICIT COUNTRIES 9/(million tonnes) 
Roots & tubers production 1/449.9445.8447.0448.3448.70.1
Cereal production (milled rice) 1/781.6788.2768.0787.5817.43.8
Per caput production (kg.) 10/203.6202.4194.5196.6201.32.4
Cereal imports 2/76.582.080.977.185.510.9
of which: Food aid deliveries 4/7.76.56.76.1  
Proportion of cereal import (percentage) 
covered by food aid10.17.98.37.9  
       
Source: FAO Note: Totals and percentages computed from unrounded data.
1/ Data refer to the calendar year of the first year shown. 2/ For wheat and coarse grains, trade refers to exports based on the July/June marketing season. For rice, trade refers to exports based on the calendar year of the second year shown. Totals include EU-15 up to 2003/04 and EU-25 in 2004/05. 3/ World trade in 2004/05 not comparable with 2003/04 because of the increase in the EU membership in 2004/05 causing some previously “international” trade to become EU “intra-trade”. 4/ July/June. 5/ Stock data are based on an aggregate of individual country carryovers at the end of national crop years and, therefore, do not represent world stock levels at any point in time. 6/ Average of quotations for January-November 2004. 7/ Change from the corresponding period of the previous year, for which figures are not shown. 8/ Average of quotations for July-November 2004. 9/ Food deficit countries with per caput income below the level used by the World Bank to determine eligibility for IDA assistance (i.e. US$1 415 in 2002). 10/ Including milled rice.

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