2 National panorama

2.1 Brief socio-economic panorama of Belize

Belize is 22 966 km² in size. Since independence in 1981, the country has been able to consolidate a stable government system based on that of the United Kingdom. In 2003, the country had 266 440 inhabitants (estimated in July 2003), of whom 48 percent live in urban areas. In 2003, the annual population growth rate was estimated at 2.44 percent. Population density is 11.6 inhabitants per km² (the average in North and Central America is 22.4 and the world average is 45.8). The Belizean economy is low and depends mainly on agriculture, namely sugar, bananas and citrus for export. Agriculture in 2000 contributed 13 percent to the gross domestic product (GDP) and 68 percent to export earnings. Recently the economy has diversified to tourism, shrimp farming and other industrial services. Current Belizean economic policy is focused on re-establishing the high growth rates achieved in the 1980s. The policy for fiscal and monetary growth initiated in 1998 achieved an economic growth of 6.5 percent in 1999, 10.8 percent in 2000, 4.6 percent in 2001 and 3.7 percent in 2002. The main problems continue to be the considerable foreign trade deficit and external debt (estimated at US$475 million in 2001).

One of the main objectives for the short term continues to be the reduction of poverty with international donor support. Close to 33 percent of the population, mainly in the rural districts of Toledo and Cayo, continue to live below the poverty line. The government’s strategy to combat poverty was the construction of low-income housing, with a target of 10 000 new houses from 1998 to 2003. The construction of 2 500 houses contributed to a reduction of the unemployment rate from 14.3 percent in 1999 to 11.5 percent in 2000. However, unemployment continues to affect women disproportionately; female unemployment is 21 percent compared with 10 percent for males.

Belize had most commercial exchange with the United States in 2002. Such exchange was almost half of the value for exports as well as for imports. That same year exports reached a value of US$290 million, of which 53 percent went to the United States, 23 percent to the United Kingdom, 6.4 percent to the Caribbean Community Secretariat (CARICOM) and 1 percent to Mexico. Imports reached US$430 million, with the main imported goods being machinery and transport equipment, manufactured goods, petroleum and oils. Forty-seven percent of these products came from the United States, 11.2 percent from Mexico, 5 percent from Central America and 2.2 percent from the United Kingdom. The trade deficit for 2002 was US$140 million.

2.2 Total population

As mentioned above, the population of Belize was estimated at 266 440 inhabitants in July 2003, distributed in a more or less uniform manner between rural and urban (52 percent and 48 percent, respectively). The current population growth rate is 2.44 percent and the population is expected to double within 26 years. This rapid growth rate is higher than that of Latin America and the Caribbean. However, the census indicates a decrease in fecundity rate between the two intercensual periods. Thus, the fast growth of the population during the 1990s was a result of immigration from the neighbouring countries in Central America (these migrants make up 14 percent of the population in Belize).

The growth rate of the population is not distributed uniformly. The districts of Cayo, Toledo and Stann Creek have experienced faster growth, especially in rural areas. About 45 percent of the population live along the coast, which has been identified as an area most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The population of the country is relatively young; 41 percent are below 15 years of age and mostly live in rural areas. Average life expectancy is estimated at 75 years of age.

The main ethnic groups are the Mestizos (48.7 percent), the Creoles (24.9 percent), the Mayas (10.6 percent), the Garífunas (6.4 percent) and the Mennonites (3.5 percent), but they are not distributed uniformly throughout the country. English is the official language even though more than 52 percent of the population speak Spanish.

The distribution of the population by district and by gender is shown in Table 1. The geographic distribution of the districts can be seen from the following map.

Table 1 National population of Belize (by district in 2000)

Source: Central Statistical Office (CSO) of Belize, 2000.

2.3 Gross domestic product (GDP)

The GDP of the country was BZ$1 976.7 million (US$988.3 million) in 2003 and is growing, as can be seen from Table 2.

Table 2 Contribution to the gross domestic product (GDP)

Note: data in Belize dollars (US$1 = BZ$2).

During the last century and up to around 1940, the forest sector was the largest contributor to the GDP, employment and exports. However, cutting most of the timber in the forests has caused a decline in the sector to the point that now it is of least importance to the GDP (see Figure 1). In 1999, export timber contributed only 1.3 percent to the export earnings of Belize and represented only 1.6 percent of the GDP. This contribution by the forest sector does not include the contribution that it provides with its environmental services to the country and to people in general, nor does it include that of tourism, which depends largely on the forest cover.

Figure 1 Economic contribution of the forest sector to the GDP during the last 70 years

Source: Central Statistical Office of Belize, 2000.

2.4 Poverty incidence

According to the last Country Poverty Assessment (CPA) carried out in 1996, 25.3 percent of households or 33 percent of the total population are below the poverty line, estimated at a minimum in yearly income of BZ$1 287.48 for an adult. Of this number, 13.4 percent are considered indigent or very poor, with income barely to cover the basic necessities. The CPA also showed that the rural population was more marginalized than the urban one, since 42.5 percent were below the poverty line compared with 20.6 percent of urban dwellers.

At the district level, the study showed that the incidence of poverty was highest in Toledo at 47.6 percent of households; 57.6 percent of the population were below the poverty line. Of these, 40.2 percent of households and 47.2 percent of the population were considered as indigent. In second place was the Cayo district with 33.5 percent of households and 41 percent of the population considered as poor, and 15.9 percent and 19.7 percent as indigent, respectively.

Table 3 shows the poverty situation by district and by sectors of the population. The study showed that people employed in agriculture and fishing were the most likely to fall into the lowest income bracket (49.4 percent), and a similar situation was noted among the Maya people (65.8 percent). Low incomes were also reported for youth (31.6 percent), households headed by women (30.5 percent) and the elderly (26.7 percent). The assessment found high poverty rates in isolated cases in villages of northern Belize such as the immigrant and refugee communities in the Cayo district, economically depressed areas in the Belize district and in some pockets in rural Orange Walk and Corozal districts (National Poverty Elimination Strategy and Action Plan, 1998–2003).

Table 3 Poverty levels in the Belizean population

2.5 Employment

Of the total labour force in Belize, 70 percent were males and 30 percent were females, according to the 2000 census. This shows an increase of 31.5 percent of females participating in the labour force as compared with the 1991 census.

The total labour force was 77 755 people, and 31 percent of these were in the Belize district. However, unemployment in the country stood at 11 455 (CSO, 2000).

Table 4 Labour force in Belize, 1999

Source: CSO, 2000.

2.6 Conclusions on the tendencies and current situation of the macro environment

The Belizean population, with its growth rate, does not appear to be a problem for the survival of the forest resource. Moreover, with adequate planning based on land use planning principles, the forest could be converted into a significant instrument for the sustainable development of the country.

The rapid increment of the immigrant population from neighbouring countries such as Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador, where traditional agricultural and livestock production cultures minimally favour the economic, social and environmental sustainability of the natural resource, should be carefully analysed.

With regard to the diminishing contribution of the forest sector to the GDP, this seems to have been caused by the inherent development of the country, which was initially based on the export of timber as logs, with little value added.

Today, export markets have become more diversified with the entrance of new products on the international market. This would appear to be the right time to analyse how the forest sector can contribute more to the GDP, considering the existing amount of raw material, as well as the goods and services that forests provide.

Protected forest areas can also play an important part in the growth of the tourism sector. Decisive factors would be the quality and capacity of private sector stakeholders in the country.