APPENDIX 1: SUMMARY OF CONTENTS OF COUNTRY PLANS

Horizon: in bracket is the year the projections were made (used as baseline).
Full references of documents used are presented in Appendix 2.
Countries are presented in alphabetical order.

	BANGLADESH
Horizon	Two documents available: (2002) - 2007 (6^th five-year plan) (2001) - 2020 (aquaculture development plan)
Projections (quantified)	6^th five-year plan: Freshwater aquaculture output = 1 466 750 tonnes Shrimp culture output = 170 000 tonnes. Total output = 1 636 750 tonnes. (+ 16 percent per annum compared to 11 percent per annum during the previous plan). Aquaculture development plan: + 3.5 percent average per annum (from 296 000 tonnes produced in 2000 - 01 to 1 340 000 tonnes in 2019 - 20).
Species	Shrimps, carps, pangas, rajpunti, tilapia.
Methodology	Analysis of past plans and failure. Evaluation of development potential of various fisheries sub-sectors by documents authors.
Assumptions	Use of forecasted population and per capita fish consumption growth. No indication about price variations. (Expected total income from increased production calculated on the basis of average price of Tk80 per kg - fixed over plan duration).
Means of achievement	Prices: Not specified Markets: Shrimp for export markets. Inland aquaculture production for domestic markets. Environment: Freshwater aquaculture: Re-excavation, rehabilitation and restoration of all public water bodies for improvement and maintenance of healthy fish production. 39 percent increase in area combined with a 40 percent increase in yields. Optimal use of inland waters.Shrimp culture: Implementation of environmental management measures for the sustainable exploitation of coastal areas (coastal aquaculture). Integrated management to limit externalities from and to other users. Extend area under cultivation to 230 000 ha. Regulations: Freshwater aquaculture: leasing of government tanks, ponds etc. to targeted poor and unemployed youth. Provision of supervised credit. Shrimp culture: equal package of incentives as other export-oriented industries. Introduction of shrimp-crop insurance. Credit at low interest rates, tax free income and tax holidays, integrated land policy. Development/Promotion: Increased investments in research. Target farmers for credit provision and technical extension as NGOs tend to focus on the landless. Freshwater aquaculture: development of private-sector hatcheries and nurseries. Strengthening of extension and training programmes. Integration of aquaculture with household farming. Shrimp culture: Establishment of private hatcheries and distribution network, appropriate farm design and technology. Other quantitative technical requirements: 216 million fingerlings of 10 - 12 cm size. 450 million spawn (shrimp farming) 3 million tonnes of fish feed (for both fish and shrimp production).
Constraints to overcome	Ensured supply of fish feed, selection of high-yielding broodstock, fish health management, multiple ownership of ponds and water bodies, complex credit norms, weak institutional capabilities in aquaculture development.

	BRAZIL
Horizon	(2003) - 2006 (grouped with capture fisheries)
Projections (quantified)	Total aquaculture output = 640 870 tonnes (+ 22 percent average per annum - calculated with foreseen annual increase of 22 percent from 2001 - 2002 figure of 210 000 tonnes). Tilapia (2010) > 420 000 tonnes (+ 25 percent average per annum). Consumption = 12 kg per capita per year.
Species	Shrimp and tilapia.
Methodology	Examined natural resources, past growth and per capita consumption. Diagnosis of main problems.
Assumptions	Deficit in fish in 2010 = 25 million tonnes estimated from population growth and consumption of 14 kg per capita per year.
Means of achievement	Prices: Reduction in price of primary products. Markets: multiply by 3 value of aquaculture and capture products. Multiply by 3 the value of exports to US$387 million between 2002 and 2006. Target markets not specified. Environment: widely available freshwater resources (8 percent of world freshwater resources) and suitable tropical climate. Saltpans available for shrimp in NE. Regulations: Guidelines to set up tilapia farms to be developed, land tenure rights to adapted, sanitary legislation to be developed. Development/Promotion: modernisation of entire production chain. Creation of 500 000 jobs (including 152 300 in tilapia production by 2010), multiply income generation by 2 between 2003 and 2006. Increase per capita consumption to level recommended by FAO (12 kg per capita per year.).For tilapia production: private investments = 81 million Real + public funds = 5.7 million Real (hatcheries, processing plants, feed etc.)
Constraints to overcome	Structural problems, low productivity, small farms. Conflicts over water resources. Lack of: trained labour, formulated feeds, suitable financing means and investments, sanitary controls, producers’ organizations. No policies for most productive species.

	CANADA
Horizon	(2001) - 2006 (freshwater aquaculture)(2000) - 2015
Projections (quantified)	Total aquaculture output = 577 000 tonnes (+ 5 percent average per annum), including: Salmonid output = 350 000 tonnes (+ 9.9 percent average per annum). Cod output = from 0 to 128 000 tonnes (> 200 percent average per annum). Freshwater aquaculture output: Pessimistic = 10 100 tonnes (+ 0.5 percent per annum) Average = 14 700 tonnes (+ 6 percent per annum) Optimistic = 26 000 tonnes (+ 15 percent per annum)
Species	Salmon and cod as main finfish species. Mussels and oysters as main shellfish species.
Planning methodology	Strategic planning workshop with industry and government experts.Not specified for freshwater aquaculture projections.
Assumptions	Markets: US imports of farm raised fish and seafood increase at 15 percent annually. Canada maintains 45 percent of market share with the USA. Consumer confidence is upheld and reinforced. Environment: The environmental sustainability of the sector is achieved. The industry has secure access to development sites. Regulations: Federal and provincial governments establish an appropriate policy framework.Not specified for freshwater aquaculture projections.
Means of achievement	Prices: Not specified. Markets: Not specified Environment: For cod production, development of 4 to 6 commercial cod hatcheries capable of producing 40 - 45 million juveniles per year. Grow-out sites required: 120 of 20 ha each (2 400 ha). For salmon production: only 66 new salmon sites of 12 ha each (792 ha). For freshwater production: demonstration of low polluting impact of current production processes through R&D. Regulations: For freshwater production: update of current legal framework based on recent results from R&D to minimise environmental impacts. Development/Promotion: Growth of the sector at a rate of 11 to 17 percent annually. New species expected to emerge in commercial quantities: cod, halibut, sablefish (black cod) and wolfish. Diversification toward cool freshwater species (trout and Arctic charr) and other ‘specialty’ species. Improve production on existing sites and develop new ones.
Constraints to overcome	General constraints: perceived conflicts in mandates (policy framework), resources (financial and human). For freshwater production: strong regulatory framework aiming at minimising environmental impacts and issues of sharing water resources.

	CHILE
Horizon	(2003) - 2013
Projections (quantified)	Salmon output to double (= 0.9 million tonnes, + 7.2 percent average per annum)
Species	Salmon mainly. Other competitive species include abalone, oyster, hake, seaweeds, turbot
Methodology	Delphi Method (180 experts from private, public and academic sectors)
Assumptions	Increase in the nominal price of Atlantic salmon in the next 10 years to US$3 - 4 per kg^[5].
Means of achievement	Prices: Not specified. Markets: 1)increase market; then quality certificates and value added; 2) increase domestic market, 3) reinforce coincidence of Chilean salmon with the positive attributes of Chile, 4) export to new markets (China, Europe, USA, and Latin America, esp. Brazil). Environment: NOT use transgenic salmon; control industrial wastes and development of vaccines; minimal use of antibiotics (natural methods of disease control used instead). Regulatory: simpler procedures for permits and less speculation, take account of other coastal users (tourism), differentiate license fees for species and regions, and regulate the use of genetically modified organisms. Development/Promotion: finance capacity, research and technical transfer, develop infrastructures, enhance free trade, risk/venture capital; develop vaccines, feed alternatives, genetic improvements, native species, feed manufactured entirely in-country.
Constraints to overcome	Trade barriers and dumping accusations, ecological challenges, shortage of R&D, conflicts over the coastline and excessive regulation, and short time horizon of companies.

	CHINA
Horizon	(2000) - 2005 (10^th five-year plan);2010 - 2020 (FAO estimates)
Projections (quantified)	Output 2005 = 30.8 million tonnes 51 million tonnes (+ 2.2 percent average per annum) Consumption = 36 kg per capita (+ 1.2 percent per annum). For rice-fish production: target of 1 500 kg fish + 15 000 rice per ha).
Species	Not specified.
Methodology	Panel of experts (academics, industry representatives and government officers). Public participation.
Assumptions	Growth rates achieved during past plan in addition to changes and reforms and international situation (e.g. WTO accession).
Means of achievement	Prices: Not specified Markets: Introduce market incentives. Increase investment in infrastructures to secure development momentum. Environment: Intensification of use of inland water bodies (development of cage aquaculture in reservoirs, upgrading of pond conditions), increase of areas used (e.g. paddy fields), encouragement to use wastewater, development of poly-culture. Regulations: Strengthening of legal framework and institutional capacities. Enforcement of measures to protect resources and the environment. Development/Promotion: Restructuring of the whole fisheries sector to improve quality and increase income (not increase production) to add value to the sector. preferential loans, fiscal conditions and improved technical support to operators, extension of the use of manufactured feed pellets to reduce eutrophication, transformation into a professional industry with producers associations, upgrading of the national technological base. Strengthening of scientific research, education and training to improve research capability. Preparedness for emergencies.
Constraints to overcome	Unclear.

	EGYPT
Horizon	(2000) - 2017
Projections (quantified)	Output = 810 000 to 870 000 tonnes (+ 5.5 percent average per annum to achieve 840 000 tonnes). Consumption = 14 kg per capita.
Species	Freshwater species (Nile tilapia, carps, catfish). "Highly-productive strains adapted to culture conditions".
Methodology	Not specified. No apparent public participation.
Assumptions	Future output needed based on human population projections, with consumption levels kept constant at 2000 levels (11.3 kg per capita). No assumption on prices.
Means of achievement	Prices: Not specified Markets: export markets (high-value fish) to develop. Environment: No reliance on the development of marine aquaculture (shrimp and finfish) to increase overall production (competition for suitable sites and constrained by collection of wild seed). Use of aquaculture to rehabilitate saline lands, use of genetically-improved fish species (e.g. tilapia) not excluded. No new development in the Nile Delta and culture of high-value species in cages along the Red Sea. Emphasis on rice-fish farming and drainage water re-use. Intensification of production before horizontal expansion. Regulations: strong regulatory framework to control farm development (pollution) already in place, change in the law banning first use of freshwater in fish farms to be considered. Development/Promotion: Hatcheries under development to kick-start the marine aquaculture sector. Diversification of brackish aquaculture to incorporate some marine species (e.g. European seabass).
Constraints to overcome	Conflicts over resource use (priority for land and water resources given to agriculture, land and freshwater availability). Marketing and economics (drop in farm gate prices, increases in production costs), current limited access to foreign markets, mostly small to medium farms.

	INDIA
Horizon	(1995) - 2005 (freshwater aquaculture)
Projections (quantified)	Freshwater aquaculture output to double: from 1 512 000 tonnes in 1995 to 3 312 800 tonnes in 2005 (Operation Aqua-Gold, "Matsyavardhan") (+ 8.2 percent average per annum).
Species	Major carps (Indian, Chinese and common carp), with other species of fish and shellfish (minor carps, catfishes, freshwater prawns according to availability and demand in different states).Ornamental fish and freshwater pearls also considered for diversification.
Planning methodology	Extrapolations based on available statistics, previous publications and the seven document authors’ experience in the field.
Assumptions	Duly consideration given to resources, prevalent production levels and consumer preferences in the preparation of the blue print for development "Operation Aqua-Gold" (Matsyavardhan). Increased demand and fish consumption (linked to population growth). Average productivity increase (to 2.76 tonnes per ha per year). Flexibility of operation and scales of investments, compatibility with other farming systems and high potential of eco-restoration (organic recycling and waste treatment) make freshwater aquaculture a fast growing farming activity in India.
Means of achievement	Prices: Not mentioned. Markets: no mention (apart from increase national demand). Environment: Increase in areas used for aquaculture by 45 percent (from 0.83 million ha to 1.2 million ha) and increase in productivity by 50 percent (from 1.83 tonnes per ha per year to 2.76 tonnes per ha per year - achieved in all agro-ecological conditions of the country). Regulations: Implementation of the Blue-print strategy plan "Operation Aqua-Gold" (Matsyavardhan) over 5 years from 2000 (assumed). More discussions with development agencies, mainly the State Fisheries Departments. Development/Promotion: Requirement of 15 362 million fry and 5.2 million tonnes of feed to support the achievement of the above targets.
Constraints to overcome	Not specified.

	INDONESIA
Horizon	(2003) - 2009
Projections (quantified)	Output to double (= 2.9 million tonnes, + 11.1 percent average per annum) Consumption to be multiplied by 1/3 Income from exports to be multiplied by 9.
Species	Shrimps?
Methodology	No apparent public consultation
Assumptions	Unclear (no mention of prices)
Means of achievement	Prices: Not mentioned. Markets: market support and business partnerships. Environment: develop potential of freshwater, brackish and marine resources. Regulatory: Unclear. Development/Promotion: Emphasis on the involvement of the private sector: "development of aquaculture business system" and establishment of a conducive business environment.Five specific programs for aquaculture development: 1. Intensification ("Inbudkan") (for exports and food security); 2. Integrated aquaculture (increase fish farmers’ income and welfare, in line with the Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries). 3. Rural aquaculture (optimisation of backyard activities in rural areas); 4. Culture-based fisheries program (to increase open water productivity). 5. Green productivity program (overlaps with the previous programs, aims to "motivate green productivity and implement the CCRF).
Constraints to overcome	Market globalisation, regulations and laws, lay-out of aquaculture zones, capital, extension institution, marketing and distribution, technologies, security and culture facilities/infrastructures.

	PHILIPPINES
Horizon	(2001) - 2004
Projections (quantified)	Increase output to 663 000 tonnes (+ 15.1 percent average per annum).
Species	Finfish and crustaceans
Methodology	Philippine Fisheries Industry Plan (1999 - 2004) drafted during a consultative meeting with stakeholders and validated by fishery experts. This plan was then used in the formulation of the Aquaculture Research, Development and Extension Agenda (document obtained).
Assumptions	Past environmental damage, disease and possible effects on commercial fisheries from shrimp and cage milkfish taken into account.
Means of achievement	Prices: Not specified. Markets: Not specified. Environment: Develop an ecologically-sound and profitable aquaculture sector through improved stocks and new culture species, sustainable management of aquaculture resources. Expansion to other production zones, intensification, shift from close to open systems. Regulations: Enhance regulation and vigilance on territorial use rights in fisheries (TURF). Development/Promotion: Enhance technology transfer systems, training and upgrading of aquaculture human resource, pilot-testing and verification of aquaculture technologies, development of biological and non-biological health management systems, development of superior stocks from traditional and new species through genetic selection and hybridization.
Constraints to overcome	The Plan was recognized as ambitious. Space limitations in brackish aquaculture and growing concerns for environmental protection and management (acknowledgement of past environmental degradation). Technical constraints: poor quality of seed stock and diseases. Socio-economic constraints: costs of inputs, financing and marketing, land use. Lack of research and unknown impacts of imported technologies on national aquatic resources.

	THAILAND
Horizon	(1996) - 2010
Projections (quantified)	Total aquaculture output = 704 349 tonnes (+ 1.7 percent average per annum), including: Freshwater aquaculture output = 299 988 tonnes (+ 2.0 percent average per annum). Coastal aquaculture output = 84 453 tonnes (+ 1.6 percent average per annum).
Species	Nile tilapia, catfish, shrimp (P. monodon), green mussel and oyster; high-value species such as groupers, mudcrabs, squids.
Methodology	No apparent consultation though a "consensus" is mentioned.
Assumptions	For all species, domestic price assumed constant (1992 - 2001). 2001 value of 64 percent of total production from freshwater aquaculture kept constant in 2010 forecasts
Means of achievement	Prices: Not specified. Markets: Freshwater production for domestic market, coastal species for both domestic and export markets. Recognition that products must be competitive and that new markets, other than the USA and Japan, have to be found. Environment: Concern over intensification and use of the coastal zone. Regulations: Enforce existing laws and regulations, cooperation with NGOs.. Development/Promotion: Technological improvements such as use of genetic manipulation to improve high-yielding strains of both freshwater and coastal species. Linkages, strengthening and budget supporting to research and educational institutions
Constraints to overcome	Adequacy of infrastructures, financial resources, skilled labour. Disease, environmental constraints (pollution) and competition. Governmental and public appreciation of the importance of the sector. Poor communication between the aquaculture industry and the communities, compatibility of Thai aquaculture with responsible environmental stewardship.

	VIET NAM
Horizon	(2001) - 2010
Projections (quantified)	Output = 2 000 000 tonnes (+ 10 percent average per annum).
Species	Not specified.
Methodology	Not specified (assumed based on past growth of the sector)
Assumptions	Increase in population and purchasing power.
Means of achievement	Prices: not specified Markets: Orientation towards a "market-oriented economic system". Improvements in efficiency, value adding activities, increased industrialisation and modernisation. Environment: 300 000 - 350 000 hectares of water suitable for aquaculture and not yet exploited. Stop misusing natural resources. Compliance with national and international environmental standards for eco-labelling and certification of aquaculture products. Regulations: Provision of appropriate legal and administrative structures. Development/Promotion: Economic reform process to accelerate, public sector to support the private sector.
Constraints to overcome	Not specified.

^[5] 2002 price for Atlantic salmon was US$ 2.7 per kg.