No.4  October 2008  
   Crop Prospects and Food Situation

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Highlights

Countries in crisis requiring external assistance (total: 36 countries)

Food Emergencies Update

Global cereal supply and demand brief

FAO global cereal supply and demand indicators

Regional reviews

Statistical appendix

Note

Statistical appendix

Table A1. Global cereal supply and demand indicators
  Average     
2001/02 -     
  2005/06 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09
  ( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .percentage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
1. Ratio of world stocks to utilization      
Wheat31.428.829.026.024.029.0
Coarse grains18.219.118.315.115.215.6
Rice27.623.824.623.924.625.9
Total cereals24.223.022.820.119.721.6
       
       
2. Ratio of major grain exporters’      
supplies to normal market requirements123137133115119123
       
       
3. Ratio of major exporters’ stocks      
to their total disappearance     
Wheat20.321.822.214.910.915.8
Coarse grains15.318.717.912.512.410.8
Rice17.313.516.015.417.018.5
Total cereals17.618.018.714.313.415.0
       
       
  Annual trend Change from previous year
  growth rate
  1998-2007 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
  ( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . percentage . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
4. Changes in world cereal production1.39.3-1.1-2.15.85.0
       
5. Changes in cereal production       
in the LIFDCs1.33.55.13.23.11.7
       
6. Changes in cereal production in       
LIFDCs less China and India2.70.36.64.1-1.22.0
       
       
  Average Change from previous year
  2001/02 -
  2005/06 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09*
   (. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
7. Selected cereal price indices:      
Wheat (July/June)116.3-1.05.225.487.39.8
Maize (July/June)103.7-15.26.444.633.361.1
Rice (Jan./Dec.)87.724.95.48.917.096.7
Notes:
Utilization is defined as the sum of food use, feed and other uses.
Cereals refer to wheat, coarse grains and rice; Grains refer to wheat and coarse grains.
Major Grain Exporters are Argentina, Australia, Canada, the EU, and the United States; Major Rice Exporters are India, Pakistan, Thailand, the United
States, and Viet Nam.
Normal Market Requirements for major grain exporters are defined as the average of domestic utilization plus exports in the three preceding seasons.
Disappearance is defined as domestic utilization plus exports for any given season.
Price indices: The wheat price index has been constructed based on the IGC wheat price index, rebased to July/June 1997/98-1999/00 = 100; For maize, the U.S. maize No. 2 Yellow (delivered U.S. Gulf ports) with base July/June, 1997/98-1999/00 = 100; For rice, the FAO Rice Price Index, 1998-2000=100, is based on 16 rice export quotations. Rice index refers to the first year shown.* For wheat and coarse grains, July/September, for rice January/September.

Table A2. World cereal stocks1 ( million tonnes)
  2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
estimate
2009
forecast
TOTAL CEREALS 417.4 469.8 470.0 426.6 432.1 466.8
Wheat 162.3 178.7 179.5 160.1 154.9 183.5
held by:      
- main exporters 238.655.156.236.626.942.7
- others165.3123.6123.3123.5128.0140.8
Coarse grains 149.8 191.2 185.4 161.8 168.0 168.9
held by:      
- main exporters248.592.790.762.371.261.5
- others107.698.494.799.596.9107.5
Rice (milled basis) 105.3 99.9 105.0 104.6 109.2 114.4
held by:      
- main exporters222.519.323.323.125.828.7
- others97.380.681.781.583.385.7
Developed countries 123.2 188.5 189.8 136.5 128.0 143.7
Australia8.810.013.66.35.76.9
European Union 321.547.645.132.730.338.0
Canada10.314.516.210.57.89.8
Hungary 40.8-----
Japan4.94.74.84.44.23.9
Poland 42.4-----
Romania 51.25.05.63.8--
Russian Federation7.39.19.39.510.816.1
South Africa3.54.14.12.71.73.3
Ukraine2.84.24.84.34.37.5
United States44.474.771.749.953.147.6
Developing countries 294.3 281.2 280.2 290.1 304.1 323.1
Asia 253.5 237.1 237.4 243.2 261.6 279.0
China163.3152.8149.0152.8168.4185.1
India32.926.725.828.534.637.1
Indonesia6.05.75.15.86.76.9
Iran, Islamic Republic of3.53.23.63.53.02.9
Korea, Republic of2.92.52.82.92.82.7
Pakistan1.92.03.23.33.13.1
Philippines1.92.32.92.83.43.6
Syrian Arab Republic4.24.44.53.12.62.0
Turkey7.26.55.56.04.42.8
Africa 20.7 23.3 26.0 31.3 27.2 24.8
Algeria2.63.64.44.74.64.2
Egypt2.73.14.54.53.93.7
Ethiopia0.10.20.61.21.91.7
Morocco3.04.92.74.22.42.1
Nigeria1.61.31.42.10.90.9
Tunisia1.01.21.41.31.91.0
Central America 5.9 6.4 4.8 4.8 5.3 5.1
Mexico3.94.62.82.73.23.0
South America 13.8 14.2 11.7 10.5 9.8 14.2
Argentina3.83.22.61.62.93.4
Brazil5.86.34.13.11.85.8
1 Stock data are based on an aggregate of carryovers at the end of national crop years and do not represent world stock levels at any point in time.
2 The major wheat and coarse grains exporters are Argentina, Australia, Canada, the EU and the United States. The major rice exporters are India, Pakistan, Thailand, the United States and Viet Nam.
3 Up to 2004 15 member countries, from 2005 to 2007 25 member countries, from 2008 27 member countries.
4 From 2005 included in the EU.
5 From 2008 included in the EU.
Note: Based on official and unofficial estimates. Totals computed from unrounded data.

Table A3. Selected international prices of wheat and coarse grains ( USD/tonne)
  Wheat Maize Sorghum
  US No.2 Hard
Red Winter Ord. Prot.
1
US Soft Red
Winter No.2
2
Argentina
Trigo Pan
3
US No.2
Yellow
2
Argentina 3 US No.2
Yellow
2
Period
 
Annual (July/June )      
2003/04161149154115109118
2004/05154138123979099
2005/06175138138104101108
2006/07212176188150145155
2007/08361311318200192206
Monthly      
2007 – October352323321163180172
2007 – November332307290171179171
2007 – December381345310178171192
2008 – January381343330206199225
2008 – February449403365220206222
2008 – March481397395234216233
2008 – April382301-247224243
2008 – May349258-242207240
2008 – June358249363281258268
2008 – July 341245329267252232
2008 – August343253307232217209
2008 – September308222283229203208
2008 – October (one week average)264188-184172160
1 Delivered United States f.o.b Gulf.
2 Delivered United States Gulf.
3 Up River f.o.b.
Sources: International Grain Council and USDA.

Table A4a. Cereal import requirements of Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries1 , 2007/08 or 2008 estimates ( thousand tonnes)
   2006/07 or 2007 2007/08 or 2008
   Actual imports Total import requirements (excl. re-exports) Import position 2
  Marketing
year
Commercial purchases Food aid Total commercial and aid Total commercial and aid Food aid allocated, committed
or shipped
Commercial purchases
AFRICA  33 863.0 2 304.5 36 167.5 38 951.3 30 100.6 1 996.4 28 104.2
North Africa   15 743.5 24.5 15 768.0 18 501.0 18 501.0 0.0 18 501.0
EgyptJuly/June11 895.5 24.5 11 920.0 11 930.0 11 930.0 0.0 11 930.0
MoroccoJuly/June3 848.0 0.0 3 848.0 6 571.0 6 571.0 0.0 6 571.0
Eastern Africa  4 078.8 1 367.7 5 446.5 5 698.0 3 777.2 1 189.8 2 587.4
BurundiJan./Dec. 76.4 50.6 127.0 139.0 15.2 15.2 0.0
ComorosJan./Dec. 56.2 0.0 56.2 42.0 27.4 0.0 27.4
DjiboutiJan./Dec. 69.1 7.4 76.5 75.0 39.4 7.5 31.9
EritreaJan./Dec. 198.7 2.3 201.0 311.0 5.9 5.9 0.0
EthiopiaJan./Dec. 27.2 504.5 531.7 756.0 621.8 438.2 183.6
KenyaOct./Sept.1 040.0 180.41 220.4 1 512.0 869.3 187.4 681.9
RwandaJan./Dec. 176.0 16.0 192.0 138.0 50.8 10.6 40.2
SomaliaAug./July 351.2 128.8 480.0 510.0 510.0 94.7 415.3
SudanNov./Oct.1 247.0 354.51 601.5 1 513.0 1 025.1 332.3 692.8
UgandaJan./Dec. 133.7 82.7 216.4 165.0 75.3 53.7 21.6
United Rep.of TanzaniaJune/May 703.3 40.5 743.8 537.0 537.0 44.3 492.7
Southern Africa  2 503.7 364.3 2 868.0 3 165.0 3 165.0 481.8 2 683.2
AngolaApril/March 649.2 20.7 669.9 758.0 758.0 5.8 752.2
LesothoApril/March 181.3 10.1 191.4 226.1 226.1 24.2 201.9
MadagascarApril/March 227.4 34.3 261.7 348.5 348.5 60.3 288.2
MalawiApril/March 161.4 63.0 224.4 174.8 174.8 56.8 118.0
MozambiqueApril/March 779.5 104.0 883.5 745.6 745.6 62.1 683.5
SwazilandMay/April 122.1 5.9 128.0 145.3 145.3 17.2 128.1
ZambiaMay/April 55.8 28.1 83.9 64.9 64.9 4.4 60.5
ZimbabweApril/March 327.0 98.2 425.2 701.8 701.8 251.0 450.8
Western Africa  9 986.2 437.6 10 423.8 9 961.5 4 120.7 272.0 3 848.7
Coastal Countries   7 662.9 135.1 7 798.0 7 741.6 2 941.2 63.4 2 877.8
BeninJan./Dec. 102.5 0.3 102.8 79.0 71.2 1.4 69.8
Côte d'IvoireJan./Dec.1 137.2 17.41 154.6 1 155.0 724.0 6.8 717.2
GhanaJan./Dec. 832.3 35.0 867.3 875.0 254.9 10.7 244.2
GuineaJan./Dec. 507.7 14.8 522.5 487.4 238.8 13.9 224.9
LiberiaJan./Dec. 204.6 38.1 242.7 240.0 75.0 21.9 53.1
NigeriaJan./Dec.4 680.0 0.04 680.0 4 680.0 1 414.3 0.0 1 414.3
Sierra LeoneJan./Dec. 115.9 28.8 144.7 139.0 90.8 6.5 84.3
TogoJan./Dec. 82.7 0.7 83.4 86.2 72.2 2.2 70.0
Sahelian Countries   2 323.3 302.5 2 625.8 2 219.9 1 179.5 208.6 970.9
Burkina fasoNov./Oct. 248.4 25.9 274.3 254.0 47.2 19.5 27.7
Cape VerdeNov./Oct. 65.1 8.7 73.8 63.6 36.8 7.7 29.1
ChadNov./Oct. 65.5 72.9 138.4 132.3 82.6 67.1 15.5
GambiaNov./Oct. 92.8 9.6 102.4 99.5 41.9 2.0 39.9
Guinea-BissauNov./Oct. 95.4 8.4 103.8 85.9 8.4 4.2 4.2
MaliNov./Oct. 326.9 46.6 373.5 239.2 48.0 8.0 40.0
MauritaniaNov./Oct. 318.4 33.7 352.1 296.9 244.1 43.9 200.2
NigerNov./Oct. 204.1 83.1 287.2 231.7 59.3 41.3 18.0
SenegalNov./Oct. 906.7 13.6 920.3 816.8 611.2 14.9 596.3
Central Africa  1 550.8 110.4 1 661.2 1 625.8 536.7 52.8 483.9
CameroonJan./Dec. 614.6 1.6 616.2 545.0 271.1 1.5 269.6
Cent.Afr.Rep.Jan./Dec. 38.2 22.9 61.1 50.8 19.5 12.8 6.7
CongoJan./Dec. 309.9 7.1 317.0 317.0 59.9 1.8 58.1
Dem.Rep.of the Congo Jan./Dec. 549.7 77.3 627.0 675.0 177.7 36.7 141.0
Equatorial GuineaJan./Dec. 23.7 0.0 23.7 24.0 4.4 0.0 4.4
Sao Tome and PrincipeJan./Dec. 14.7 1.5 16.2 14.0 4.1 0.0 4.1

Table A4b. Cereal import requirements of Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries1 , 2007/08 or 2008 estimates ( thousand tonnes)
   2006/07 or 2007 2007/08 or 2008
   Actual imports Total import requirements (excl. re-exports) Import position 2
  Marketing
year
Commercial purchases Food aid Total commercial and aid Total commercial and aid Food aid allocated, committed
or shipped
Commercial purchases
ASIA   39 757.0 1 724.8 41 481.8 40 684.3 37 086.6 1 348.9 35 737.7
CIS in Asia   3 166.0 451.0 3 617.0 3 728.0 3 728.0 35.0 3 693.0
ArmeniaJuly/June 315.0 86.0 401.0 383.0 383.0 5.0 378.0
AzerbaijanJuly/June1 264.0 119.0 1 383.0 1 320.0 1 320.0 3.0 1 317.0
GeorgiaJuly/June 890.0 95.0 985.0 826.0 826.0 8.0 818.0
KyrgyzstanJuly/June 263.0 58.0 321.0 330.0 330.0 0.0 330.0
TajikistanJuly/June 278.0 93.0 371.0 459.0 459.0 19.0 440.0
TurkmenistanJuly/June 4.0 0.0 4.0 272.0 272.0 0.0 272.0
UzbekistanJuly/June 152.0 0.0 152.0 138.0 138.0 0.0 138.0
Far East   26 729.7 1 071.9 27 801.6 25 093.2 23 539.0 1 138.8 22 400.2
BangladeshJuly/June2 298.6 172.4 2 471.0 3 330.9 3 330.9 342.8 2 988.1
BhutanJuly/June 71.6 0.4 72.0 71.0 71.0 0.0 71.0
CambodiaJan./Dec. 30.0 10.0 40.0 40.0 5.6 5.6 0.0
China July/June2 366.0 0.0 2 366.0 1 810.0 1 810.0 0.0 1 810.0
D.P.R. of KoreaNov./Oct. 41.2 568.6 609.8 1 660.4 796.9 674.9 122.0
IndiaApril/March6 730.0 35.3 6 765.3 2 100.0 2 100.0 21.6 2 078.4
IndonesiaApril/March8 159.9 32.9 8 192.8 7 745.0 7 745.0 16.0 7 729.0
Lao, P.D.R.Jan./Dec. 11.2 17.8 29.0 27.4 4.4 4.4 0.0
MongoliaOct./Sept. 223.7 42.6 266.3 285.0 250.8 5.0 245.8
NepalJuly/June 212.4 7.6 220.0 190.0 190.0 16.7 173.3
Pakistan May/April 97.7 65.9 163.6 1 521.0 1 521.0 2.1 1 518.9
PhilippinesJuly/June5 244.8 83.0 5 327.8 5 033.4 5 033.4 16.9 5 016.5
Sri LankaJan./Dec.1 182.6 35.4 1 218.0 1 218.1 619.0 32.8 586.2
Timor-LesteJuly/June 60.0 0.0 60.0 61.0 61.0 0.0 61.0
Near East   9 861.3 201.9 10 063.2 11 863.1 9 819.6 175.1 9 644.5
AfghanistanJuly/June 690.8 151.7 842.5 991.1 991.1 151.5 839.6
IraqJuly/June3 822.5 7.7 3 830.2 4 632.0 4 632.0 9.0 4 623.0
Syrian Arab Republic July/June2 471.7 8.3 2 480.0 3 350.0 3 350.0 11.0 3 339.0
YemenJan./Dec.2 876.3 34.2 2 910.5 2 890.0 846.5 3.6 842.9
CENTRAL AMERICA   1 542.9 155.5 1 698.4 1 667.6 1 667.6 145.0 1 522.6
HaitiJuly/June 425.1 95.5 520.6 591.8 591.8 76.4 515.4
HondurasJuly/June 671.7 33.1 704.8 679.8 679.8 24.7 655.1
NicaraguaJuly/June 446.1 26.9 473.0 396.0 396.0 43.9 352.1
OCEANIA   422.2 0.0 422.2 415.7 194.9 0.0 194.9
KiribatiJan./Dec. 8.7 0.0 8.7 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
Papua New GuineaJan./Dec. 364.5 0.0 364.5 358.0 194.9 0.0 194.9
Solomon IslandsJan./Dec. 29.5 0.0 29.5 29.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
TongaJan./Dec. 6.4 0.0 6.4 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
TuvaluJan./Dec. 1.1 0.0 1.1 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
VanuatuJan./Dec. 12.0 0.0 12.0 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
EUROPE   1 572.0 37.0 1 609.0 1 665.0 1 665.0 0.0 1 665.0
AlbaniaJuly/June 440.0 0.0 440.0 480.0 480.0 0.0 480.0
BelarusJuly/June 576.0 0.0 576.0 361.0 361.0 0.0 361.0
Bosnia and Herzegovina July/June 535.0 0.0 535.0 488.0 488.0 0.0 488.0
MoldovaJuly/June 21.0 37.0 58.0 336.0 336.0 0.0 336.0
TOTAL   77 157.1 4 221.8 81 378.9 83 383.9 70 714.7 3 490.3 67 224.4
1 Includes food deficit countries with per caput income below the level used by the World Bank to determine eligibility for IDA assistance (i.e. USD 1 675 in 2005).
2 Estimates based on information available as of mid-September 2008.

Table A5. Cereal Import Requirements of Low-Income Food-Deficit countries1 , 2008/09 estimates
( thousand tonnes)
   2007/08 2008/09
   Actual imports Total import requirements (excl. re-exports) 1 Import position 2
  Marketing
year
Commercial purchases Food aid Total commercial and aid Total commercial and aid Food aid allocated, committed
or shipped
Commercial purchases
AFRICA  22 092.2 620.8 22 713.0 23 057.0 3 594.5 210.4 3 384.1
Northern Africa  18 501.0 0.0 18 501.0 18 361.0 2 781.5 0.0 2 781.5
EgyptJuly/June11 930.0 0.0 11 930.0 12 240.0 2 453.4 0.0 2 453.4
MoroccoJuly/June6 571.0 0.0 6 571.0 6 121.0 328.1 0.0 328.1
Eastern Africa  908.0 139.0 1 047.0 915.0 87.3 42.5 44.8
SomaliaAug./July 415.3 94.7 510.0 520.0 40.9 40.9 0.0
United Rep.of TanzaniaJune/May 492.7 44.3 537.0 395.0 46.4 1.6 44.8
Southern Africa  2 683.2 481.8 3 165.0 3 781.0 725.7 167.9 557.8
AngolaApril/March 752.2 5.8 758.0 762.0 5.0 0.0 5.0
LesothoApril/March 201.9 24.2 226.1 220.0 58.5 0.0 58.5
MadagascarApril/March 288.2 60.3 348.5 390.0 11.3 2.6 8.7
MalawiApril/March 118.0 56.8 174.8 142.0 90.0 22.9 67.1
MozambiqueApril/March 683.5 62.1 745.6 803.0 142.1 39.9 102.2
SwazilandMay/April 128.1 17.2 145.3 142.0 18.1 0.0 18.1
ZambiaMay/April 60.5 4.4 64.9 91.0 20.7 6.6 14.1
Zimbabwe April/March 450.8 251.0 701.8 1 231.0 380.0 95.9 284.1
ASIA/NEAR EAST   33 940.8 622.6 34 563.4 35 128.6 3 945.4 195.9 3 749.5
CIS in Asia   3 693.0 35.0 3 728.0 4 163.0 495.9 6.6 489.3
ArmeniaJuly/June 378.0 5.0 383.0 355.0 53.0 0.0 53.0
AzerbaijanJuly/June1 317.0 3.0 1 320.0 1 176.0 323.7 0.0 323.7
GeorgiaJuly/June 818.0 8.0 826.0 886.0 49.1 0.7 48.4
Kyrgyz RepublicJuly/June 330.0 0.0 330.0 316.0 5.8 0.0 5.8
TajikistanJuly/June 440.0 19.0 459.0 560.0 28.8 5.9 22.9
TurkmenistanJuly/June 272.0 0.0 272.0 610.0 0.3 0.0 0.3
UzbekistanJuly/June 138.0 0.0 138.0 260.0 35.2 0.0 35.2
Far East   21 446.2 416.1 21 862.3 18 270.6 4 645.9 69.7 2 185.0
BangladeshJuly/June2 988.1 342.8 3 330.9 2 694.2 486.1 61.6 424.5
BhutanJuly/June 71.0 0.0 71.0 71.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
China July/June1 810.0 0.0 1 810.0 1 317.0 108.5 0.0 108.5
IndiaApril/March2 078.4 21.6 2 100.0 1 100.0 2 453.4 6.7 55.5
IndonesiaApril/March7 729.0 16.0 7 745.0 6 541.4 842.5 0.0 842.5
NepalJuly/June 173.3 16.7 190.0 240.0 1.4 1.4 0.0
Pakistan May/April1 518.9 2.1 1 521.0 2 021.0 496.5 0.0 496.5
PhilippinesJuly/June5 016.5 16.9 5 033.4 4 226.0 257.5 0.0 257.5
Timor-LesteJuly/June 61.0 0.0 61.0 60.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Near East   8 801.6 171.5 8 973.1 12 695.0 1 194.8 119.6 1 075.2
AfghanistanJuly/June 839.6 151.5 991.1 2 340.0 104.8 100.6 4.2
IraqJuly/June4 623.0 9.0 4 632.0 5 040.0 511.0 14.7 496.3
SyriaJuly/June3 339.0 11.0 3 350.0 5 315.0 579.0 4.3 574.7
CENTRAL AMERICA   1 522.6 145.0 1 667.6 1 665.0 73.7 73.7 0.0
HaitiJuly/June 515.4 76.4 591.8 625.0 61.7 61.7 0.0
HondurasJuly/June 655.1 24.7 679.8 665.0 6.5 6.5 0.0
NicaraguaJuly/June 352.1 43.9 396.0 375.0 5.5 5.5 0.0
EUROPE   1 665.0 0.0 1 665.0 1 080.0 52.9 0.0 52.9
AlbaniaJuly/June 480.0 0.0 480.0 480.0 18.7 0.0 18.7
BelarusJuly/June 361.0 0.0 361.0 150.0 28.3 0.0 28.3
Bosnia-Herzegovina July/June 488.0 0.0 488.0 400.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
MoldovaJuly/June 336.0 0.0 336.0 50.0 5.9 0.0 5.9
TOTAL   59 220.6 1 388.4 60 609.0 60 930.6 7 666.5 480.0 7 186.5
1 Includes food deficit countries with per caput income below the level used by the World Bank to determine eligibility for IDA assistance (i.e. USD 1 675 in 2005).
2 Estimates based on information available as of mid-September 2008.

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