|No.3 July 2009|
|Crop Prospects and Food Situation|
Domestic food prices in developing countries mostly remain much higher than before the soaring food price crisis despite a sharp decline in international prices since their peaks in 2008 (see special feature inside). This situation continues to give rise to concern for the food security of low-income vulnerable populations who spend a large share of their incomes on food.
FAO's latest forecast points to a 3.4 percent reduction in world cereal production in 2009, mostly on account of lower plantings and yields among developed countries. In developing countries, output is expected to remain unchanged from last year.
Despite the lower cereal production envisaged, the outlook for world cereal supply and demand situation in 2009/10 is satisfactory reflecting large carryover stocks and stagnant demand.
In the Low-Income Food-Deficit countries, prospects for the 2009 cereal crops are generally favourable and the aggregate production is forecast to increase for the second consecutive year. However, the outlook is uncertain in parts of Western and Eastern Africa as well as Asia reflecting an erratic start of the rainy season.
Despite a positive outlook for global cereal supplies in 2009/10, FAO's latest assessment indicates that 30 countries around the world require external assistance as a result of natural disasters, conflict or insecurity, and economic problems.
|GIEWS||global information and early warning system on food and agriculture|