Trends and status of forest products and services

Forests in the economy
Contribution of forests to environmental stability
Global trends in consumption and production of forest products, 1970-94
International trade in forest products

Forests in the economy

Forests offer a wide range of both material and intangible benefits, all of which have a value but only some of which are currently expressed in monetary terms. Benefits which are difficult to quantify include goods which pass through the informal sector, non-marketed goods, and services. In addition, there are cultural or spiritual values often attached to forests. For some of these benefits, methods are being developed to estimate their economic contribution or proxy values.

Areas of contribution

Major industries and smaller enterprises based on forest products are the source of considerable income and employment. Less recognized, but also significant, are the employment and incomes associated with management of natural or plantation forests. Exports of primary and, increasingly, value-added forest products (wood and non-wood) generate significant foreign exchange for some countries. Tourism based on wildlife resources or scenic forest areas is important in many countries; for example, in Africa: Kenya, Zimbabwe, Botswana and Namibia.

Furthermore, forest products can provide critical inputs into major industries in other sectors, such as: charcoal in the Brazilian steel industry; fuelwood in the tea, ceramics, lime and tobacco industries of many tropical countries; pitprops and sleepers for mining; and packaging for manufactured goods.

Forest products produced or collected for family use or sale may be very important to the household economy. At local community level, the economic importance of forest products is most evident when they are scarce and the poor are faced with high prices. For example, in some urban areas of developing countries, families may spend a significant proportion of their income on fuelwood and charcoal.

Forestry employment, collection and sale of forest products, and small, forest-based enterprises provide income important for meeting household needs and for rural investment.

Forests tend to offer possibilities for income generation in rural areas where few other opportunities may be available. By providing nearly unique focus for development in such areas, their importance may often be greater than the financial value of their output may imply. Forestry enterprises also generate opportunities further afield due to their multiplier effects derived from their forward and backward linkages.

Indicative estimates of income and international trade contributions

No good global estimates of forestry's economic contribution are available, but a partial indication is provided by its share in gross domestic product (GDP) and international trade. At a global level, forestry is estimated to contribute some 2 percent of world GDP and 3 percent of international merchandise trade¹ (see Table 1).

¹ State of World's Forests. FAO, Rome 1995. The 'industry' component included only processed products; the 'forestry' component Included roundwood as a proxy for all resource goods. The figures are derived by multiplying output by unit value of exports. They are indicative figures only; on the one hand, they are conservative since they do not include non-wood values but, on the other, processed products use roundwood inputs that were separately valued.

Table 1 shows significant differences between regions and countries in the relative importance of forestry to their economies. In particular, forestry appears to provide a relatively high contribution to GDP in many countries where the forest industry is not particularly strong - especially resource-poor developing countries. This may, in part, reflect the low level of development of the rest of the economy, or the fact that it is only modestly monetized or has few other export products.

Table 1
Countries in which forestry's share of GDP and international merchandise trade is 10 percent or higher²

² State of the World's Forests, FAO, Rome, 1995,

where forestry's share of GDP is 10 percent or higher			where forestry's share of trade is 10 percent or higher
country	percentage of GDP	percentage of trade	country	percentage of trade	percentage of GDP
Uganda	23	0	Cambodia	43	-
Bhutan	22	11	Solomon Islands	42	16
Zaire	21	3	Equatorial Guinea	42	4
Swaziland	20	13	Finland	36	7
Kenya	19	0	Myanmar	35	8
Zambia	17	0	Liberia	31	-
Nigeria	16	0	Laos	21	15
Solomon Islands	16	42	Central African Rep.	20	12
Burundi	15	-	Sweden	18	4
Chad	15	-	Congo	16	7
Laos	15	21	Cameroon	15	6
Malawi	15	0	Canada	13	5
Sierra Leone	14	0	Swaziland	13	20
Madagascar	13	1	Fiji	13	3
Rwanda	13	-	Gabon	12	6
Sudan	13	-	Indonesia	12	10
Central African Republic	12	20	Bhutan	11	22
Gambia	12	-	Cote d'Ivoire	10	9
Ghana	11	9	New Zealand	10	5
Benin	11	0
Burkina Faso	11	0
Papua New Guinea	11	7
Indonesia	10	12
Malaysia	10	9
Africa	6	2
South America	3	3
Asia	2	2
North/Central America	2	5
Europe	1	3
Oceania	2	3
Former USSR	2	4
Developing countries	4	2
Developed countries,	1	4
World	2	3

As economies grow, value-added production and commerce tend to increase faster in secondary and tertiary sectors where productivity is greater than in a primary sector like forestry. Hence in developed countries, the forestry sector's share may be relatively small, even where the sector is internationally prominent, as in Canada or Finland. A similar pattern will emerge in rapidly developing Third World countries.

Table 1 shows that in terms of share of total GDP at regional level, forests appear to be most important in Africa (6 percent), followed by South America. The world average is 2 percent of GDP, but the average in developed countries is only 1 percent. The forestry sector contributes more than 10 percent of GDP for 18 countries in Africa, four countries in Asia and two in Oceania, but is less significant in other regions. Although developed countries produce more than 80 percent of the world's industrial forest products, the average contribution to GDP for these countries is only 1 percent, compared with 4 percent for developing countries.

The contribution of forests to GDP is not necessarily highest in what are often considered 'forest countries' in the sense of industrial forestry. In Africa, for example, the contribution of forestry to GDP appears to be fairly limited in the highly-forested countries of Cameroon and Congo, whereas it is more substantial in Uganda and Kenya where forest resources are more limited. In many developing countries, the less commercialized contributions of forests to the economy can dominate; fuelwood, for example, may be economically more significant than industrial wood.

The contribution of forest products to world merchandise trade is highest in North and Central America (5 percent), followed by the former USSR (4 percent) with South America, Europe and Oceania at 3 percent each. In Africa and Asia, the forestry proportion of trade is 2 percent. These averages belie the importance of forest products trade in the smaller economies. In Africa, trade in forest products accounts for more than 10 percent of the value of total trade in eight countries. The share of forest products in total trade exceeds 10 percent in five countries in Asia (all of which have less developed economies), and in only three countries in North America and Europe (Finland, Sweden, and Canada).

Improving valuation of forests and integrating them into national accounts

The above estimates of forestry in GDP have focused on wood products only, to the neglect of the many other forest contributions. The exclusion of valuable but non-marketed and intangible functions results in an under-estimation of the contribution of the forestry sector to national economies.

The need to increase people's perception of the value of forests, and to improve methodologies which incorporate social, economic and ecological values of trees, forests and forest lands into national economic accounting systems, has been highlighted in UNCED and many other fora. Work is under way to improve methodologies for valuation of forests (see Box 1).

Improving forestry profile in national accounts

Improved valuation would, once adequately reflected in a country's national accounts, provide a basis for a better appreciation of forestry's contribution. In a book on economic accounts for agriculture, FAO mentions the diversity of goods and services of forests and also of the interest groups which want access to them.³ It highlights the need for effective decision making in situations of actual or potential conflict, and stresses the importance of providing policy-makers with 'information that gives them a complete picture of the net benefits derived from forests... i.e., on wood and non-wood products; services or functions; and benefits from marketed and non-marketed aspects.' The publication highlights the need to ensure that production from forest-based industries and artisanal manufacturing is not inadvertently left out of national accounts altogether because it falls between the forestry, agriculture and industry sectors and thus may be overlooked by all of them.

³ FAO. 1996. A System of economic accounts for food and agriculture. FAO Statistical Development Series No, 8, FAO, Rome.

Given the importance of fuller valuation, some countries are attempting to improve the quality of estimates for forestry in their national accounts, despite the unresolved weaknesses of valuation methodologies. Noteworthy progress has been made in developed countries such as Canada and Finland, and in developing countries such as Costa Rica, Indonesia and the Philippines. Many proposals exist for resource accounting, focusing on capturing environmental or sustainability values. At international level, the International Institute for Environment and Development developed a set of guidelines for ITTO in 1993, and a number of other NGOs have also been active in this respect.

Two approaches, both potentially useful, have been adopted: to improve the estimates of forestry's contribution in countries' core national accounts under the System of National Accounts (SNAs), and to develop satellite accounts for forestry which can, in greater detail, provide a kind of forest 'green' version of the sector's contribution. These satellite 'green accounts' can reflect environmental values better than the modified core SNAs, and thus are more likely to satisfy the environmental concerns that often motivate calls for better forestry accounts.

One concern that receives attention in improved accounts is the question of capital depreciation of the forest resource base due to deforestation and to degradation. An approach proposed at the World Bank gives considerable attention to sustainability by accounting for natural capital and for the depletion of resources.⁵ A monetary value is placed on environmental impacts. The results of applying the methodology would be to revise completely the estimated wealth levels and the ranking of some countries.

⁵ Serageldin. 1995, Sustainability and the wealth of nations: first step in an ongoing journey. Third Annual World Bank Conference on Environmentally Sustainable Development. Preliminary draft. 30 September 1995.

Box 1: The valuation of forests There is currently a high level of activity to develop valuation methodologies and to test them; and a number of countries have taken steps to improve their approach to the valuation of forests. Methodology development has focused on improving the valuation of non-marketed and less tangible benefits which are not normally reflected in national accounts. The theoretical basis has been agreed upon and the categorization of values is generally accepted as being direct or indirect, use or non-use, capable of being captured or intangible at all times. The aim is to develop methods which are objective, so that values can be quantified and compared, both within and between countries. The current situation has recently been exhaustively reviewed4 and the main features are as follows: 4 Kengen, S. 1996, Forestry valuation - purpose, context and process (provisional title). André Mayer Research Fellowship Draft Report. FAO, Rome. · Valuation studies and methodologies exist, but many are academic and are not yet widely applied in mainstream planning. · While the basic valuation methods exist, difficulties include the inability to take into account: (a) the probability of securing a given benefit (particularly important when dealing with values of such things as medicinal plants and biological resources whose discovery may involve a high degree of chance); and (b) the cost of securing the forest value - many valuation studies appear to assume that the full value is also the net value, i.e., they ignore the costs of development with the result that estimates are exaggerated. · Basic information on production, i.e., function potentials (e.g., yields of particular goods or services in relation to given management interventions), is missing or weak. Valuation attempts made with different coefficients may thus result in highly divergent results for any given situation. · The most prominent studies have been done by funding agencies and have demanded time, skill and funding resources that are beyond the means of many of those who need this information, especially in developing countries. There is need for rapid appraisal techniques. · The usefulness of the valuation results may depend on who ascribes the values and who uses the results. Values allocated to functions such as carbon sequestration, often dwarf those of productive forest functions such as wood production. High values are being claimed for forests but they are not matched by any tangible returns which policy-makers can use to help secure support for forestry. High values for functions such as carbon capture mean relatively little to those who are often the de facto decision-makers as to how forest land and resources are used, namely forest dwellers or local people who may have pressing survival needs for land for agriculture or for forest products to use or sell. These groups rarely get an opportunity to give their views in attaching values to various forest functions. · For tropical forest valuation, the views of pressure groups in industrial countries or in urban centres inside the country are often given more weight than local ones; the views of officials and academics within countries are being used as proxies for general societal preferences. · Presently, there is inadequate information to say whether forestry is receiving any stronger policy support in countries where more comprehensive forest valuation has been undertaken

There is great potential benefit in adopting approaches which are applicable to other natural resources. For example, fossil-based natural resources are credited with major contributions to national economies, but the fact that the product itself represents irreplaceable capital is often ignored. Accounting, as a discipline, rests on following tradition and being predictable. It is important that national accounting approaches adopted for forestry and other sectors are based on neutral professional analysis and broad-based consultation; they must not be seen as merely a tool for advocacy by individual interest groups.

Contribution of forests to environmental stability

Although the environmental services provided by forests are seldom fully valued or adequately reflected in forest planning and management decisions, they are nevertheless accorded increasing importance in national and global debates on sustainable forestry. Environmental services include: Protection of soil and water resources; the conservation of biological diversity; support to agricultural productivity and sustainability; carbon sequestration and the mitigation of global warming; the combating of desertification and resource degradation in arid and semi-arid zones; provision of shade, amenity and recreation; and protection of coastal areas and coastal fisheries. The importance of many of these are highlighted in UNCED's Agenda 21 as well as in international conventions on biological diversity, desertification, and climate change (see 'The international dialogue and initiatives with relevance to forests' in Part 2). Some developments related to the environmental services provided by forests are discussed below.

Environmental protection in fragile ecosystems: drylands and upland areas

Combating desertification

Drylands, defined as arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas, are among the world's most fragile ecosystems, and are made more so by periodic droughts and the risk of desertification. Drylands cover around 30 percent of the world's land area and are inhabited by about 900 million people, a large proportion of whom are among the poorest of the world. Over time, people living in dryland areas have evolved complex production systems to minimize the risks posed by extreme climatic conditions. These include mixed cropping systems, agroforestry systems, and nomadic and transhumant livestock herding.

Various forces, however, are contributing to the degradation of resources in these areas, including increasing population density, economic pressures, climatic trends, changes in resource management practices, and patterns of land and resource tenure. An estimated 70 percent of the world's drylands are affected by desertification, defined by the international Convention to Combat Desertification (see page 105) as 'land degradation in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors including climatic variations and human activities'.

Deforestation (mainly for conversion to agricultural use) and overexploitation of forests and woodlands (through fuelwood collection and overgrazing) are major causes of soil degradation in dryland areas in Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, Oceania, and Africa. FAO's Forest Resources Assessment data from 1980-90 indicate that the deforestation rate in the dry and very dry tropics is high (0.9 percent per year). Programmes to combat desertification focus on improved management and protection of existing forest and woodland resources, on increased vegetative cover outside forests (e.g., through agroforestry, maintenance of trees and shrubs in critical watersheds and degraded areas), and on range improvement and development. Action programmes, which are being proposed under the Convention to Combat Desertification, are expected to supplement work which has been carried out through national initiatives, regional bodies (e.g., the Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel - CILSS) and international programmes (e.g., the UN Sudano-Sahelian Office).

Watershed management and mountain forests

Forests and other woody vegetative cover in uplands and on sloping lands serve important environmental functions in land stabilization, erosion control and regulation of hydrologic flow. Maintenance of adequate forest cover through vegetation management and reforestation has long been considered a primary objective of watershed management programmes. Ensuring that soil conservation measures are taken where vegetation on sloping lands is disturbed, e.g., by forestry and agricultural activities, is also an issue of worldwide concern. This is particularly essential in many developing countries, where population pressures and lack of alternative lands are resulting in expansion of agriculture onto steeper and more marginal lands by poor farmers. According to Forest Resources Assessment data collected by FAO for the decade of the 1980s, the hill and mountain forests were undergoing the highest rate of deforestation in the tropics (1.1 percent per year). While not all due to clearing for agriculture, this is a major cause.

Over the past two years, Chapter 13 of UNCED's Agenda 21, 'Managing fragile ecosystems: sustainable mountain development', has served to highlight the importance of mountain areas and the ecological and economic role that forests play in them. The issues include: the expansion of agriculture onto these lands, and associated problems of soil erosion and hydrological disruption (a problem most critical in developing countries); the economically-depressed nature of these areas (a universal problem); and social and land-use changes due to net out-migration from these areas (an issue mainly in developed countries).

The objectives of sustainable mountain development are two-fold: to improve the natural resource base and quality of life of upland populations, and to protect vital downstream interests. Watershed management programmes have, in the past, had a strong tendency to focus on the latter and on technical solutions, with less regard to the immediate needs of the local populations or to ways in which they might be involved. The current approach balances the two objectives, an approach which has arisen from the realization that any long-term solution to watershed management must consider the development needs and the role of the local population in watershed management. In terms of forest management and protection in mountain watersheds, this has meant greater involvement of local populations in planning and implementing management strategies and programmes, often with more direct benefits to mountain populations.

Chapter 13 has drawn the attention of decision-makers and planners, both at global and national levels, to these issues over the last few years. It stresses the need to adopt an integrated and participatory approach to watershed conservation and upland development. As part of the UNCED follow-up process, regional intergovernmental and NGO consultations have been held, beginning in late 1994 in Asia, Latin America, Africa and Europe, aimed at focusing attention on the special concerns of mountain areas, including the important role of mountain forests, and to define the types of action which are both necessary and appropriate for each region.

While the trends in balancing resource conservation with socio-economic development, and in adopting more participatory approaches to mountain development are often associated with developing countries, similar approaches are being called for in some developed countries. For example, in September 1996, a workshop was held in France to launch an initiative to establish a European Observatory of Mountain Forests, aimed at supporting sustainable resource management and socio-economic development in the mountain regions of Europe. This effort is spearheaded by the European Federation of Local Forest Authorities, which includes forest communities and local authorities in Europe in its membership.

Forests and global climate change

The role that human activities play in influencing global climate has been vigorously debated since warming of the Earth's surface temperature was detected several years ago. However, the authoritative Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) only recently concluded in its summary of the 'Second Assessment Report' that 'the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate'.⁶ This statement has potentially enormous implications for policy making, for the energy industry and for the global economy. It may also have a direct effect on the forestry sector.

⁶ IPCC. (1996). Climate Change 1995. (Second Assessment Report). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK (3 Volumes).

The global mean temperature of the Earth's surface has increased by 0.3-0.6 °C over the past 100 years.⁷ This rapid increase in global temperatures is expected to lead to regional and global changes in climate that could have significant impacts on human and natural systems. Much of the observed warming of the Earth's surface is believed to be due to increased concentrations of 'greenhouse gases' in the Earth's atmosphere, which have altered the Earth's radiative balance, i.e., the 'greenhouse effect'. The main greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), and nitrous oxide (N₂O), of which CO₂ is by far the most important (accounting for 65 percent of the greenhouse effect). Human activities, including those involving the use of fossil fuels, land use changes and agricultural production, have resulted in increased concentrations of these gases in the atmosphere since the onset of the industrial revolution. Most of the CO₂ emissions derived from human activity are the result of fossil fuel combustion (76 percent of the total). Tropical deforestation and forest degradation account for an estimated 23 percent, and the remaining 1 percent comes from cement manufacture. The greatest gains in reducing CO₂ emissions, therefore, can come from controlling the burning of fossil fuels. However, because forests, as both sources and sinks of CO₂, can both contribute to and mitigate climate change, they figure prominently in strategies to address this problem. Various forestry-based strategies are being proposed for mitigation, and some reforestation schemes have been carried out with the purpose of offsetting CO₂ emissions (see Box 2).

⁷ The sources of information In this paragraph and Box 2 are: Kirschbaum M., et. al. Climate change impacts on forests; and Brown, S. Management of forests for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions, chapters 1 and 24 respectively, of the IPCC Second Assessment Report.

Conservation of biological diversity

Forests play an important role in the conservation of the world's biological diversity, defined as the variability among living organisms and the complexes of which they are a part, including diversity within species, between species and of ecosystems. Forests are believed to provide habitat to about two-thirds of all species on Earth. Tropical rainforests, which cover only 7 percent of the Earth's land area, harbour perhaps one-half of all known plant and animal species. Other forest types, such as dryland forests or temperate forests, although less rich in terms of numbers of species, have plants and animals of actual or potential economic significance and which make important contributions to the functioning of these ecosystems.

The unprecedented scale and rate of human-induced changes to forests are threatening forest-based biological diversity. The deterioration or loss of forest ecosystems has led to the extinction of some species and the reduction of genetic variation within other species through the loss or reduction in size of certain populations in an area. While the magnitude of such losses or the extent of degradation of biological diversity is unknown, evidence suggests that the rate of extinctions, at least among vertebrates and plants, has accelerated significantly under the impact of humans.⁸

⁸ Barbault, R. and Sastrapradja S, 1996. Generation, Maintenance and Loss of Biodiversity, In Global Biodiversity Assessment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK

While nature reserves and protected area systems (i.e., in-situ conservation) are the most efficient and often most effective means of conserving biological diversity, few national protected area systems are sufficiently comprehensive, even in terms of coverage of the ecosystems in a country, no less in terms of species or variation within species. In addition, only a limited number of forest plant species are conserved satisfactorily ex-situ, such as in gene banks, plantations, or live collections (botanic gardens, arboreta). Ex-situ conservation of wildlife (e.g., in zoos) is also far from adequate. Managing forests and trees in protection and production forests and in agricultural lands, in such a way as to contribute to the conservation of biological diversity, is increasingly seen as an essential complement to conservation within parks and protected areas.

Box 2 Forests and climate change The vegetation and soils of the world's forests contain a vast quantity of carbon - more than one and a quarter times the amount stored in the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is released when forests are cleared or degraded, and vegetation is burned or decays. Burning forest vegetation also releases other greenhouse gases, including methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), carbon monoxide (CO), and oxides of nitrogen (NO). When forests grow, CO2 is withdrawn from the atmosphere through photosynthesis and stored as carbon in the vegetation. Levels of carbon in the soil may be increased by reforestation and other forest management practices. Currently, the world's forests are estimated to be net sources of CO2, primarily due to deforestation and forest degradation in the tropics. Temperate and boreal forests which, globally, are slightly increasing in area and in some places in biomass per unit area, are net carbon sinks. Temperate forests may also be absorbing additional amounts of CO2 through enhanced forest growth caused by human-induced CO2 fertilization and nitrogen deposition. The following three forest-related strategies have been proposed as means to influence CO2 emissions: 1. maintaining existing carbon stocks through forest management and conservation; 2. increasing storage of carbon in forests (by increasing forest area or biomass per unit area) and in forest products; and 3. substituting fossil fuels with fuelwood from sustainably managed forests, and substituting energy-expensive products (e.g., steel, aluminum or concrete) with industrial wood products. The forestry sector has the ability to influence the first two, whereas the implementation of the third strategy will depend upon policy measures, and product development and marketing efforts by governments and industry. Improved forest and land management resulting in lowered rates of deforestation and forest degradation in the tropics would reduce the current rate of CO2 emissions substantially, and would also reduce the release of other greenhouse gases associated with the burning of forest vegetation. Expanding the amount of forest under protection (e.g., conservation areas, forest reserves) and improving harvesting practices to reduce waste and prevent damage to residual trees and to soils, would also help maintain existing carbon stocks. Practices to increase the amount of carbon stored in forests include: expanding the area of forest plantations on non-forested lands; increasing tree cover on croplands, pasture lands or elsewhere in the landscape; and promoting recovery of degraded forests through natural regeneration or enrichment planting. Increased carbon storage in forest products could be achieved if the demand for wood products rose faster than their rate of decay, or if the lifetime of wood products were extended by making them more durable, or by recycling them. The third strategy, termed 'substitution management', has the greatest long-term potential for greenhouse gas mitigation. Unlike the first two, which can produce only finite increases in terrestrial carbon storage, this third group of activities can reduce net CO2 emissions indefinitely. Emissions from fossil fuels are avoided, and emissions from wood are balanced by subsequent regrowth. The IPCC estimates that about 12-15 percent of the projected CO2 emissions from fossil fuel consumption from now until 2050 could be offset by slowing deforestation, promoting forest regeneration, and increasing the area in plantations and agroforestry systems. Tropical forests have the greatest potential for sequestering carbon; they could provide 80 percent of increased storage of carbon in the world's forests, mainly through forest regeneration and reduced deforestation. Tropical America has the greatest potential for increasing carbon storage, followed by Asia and then tropical Africa. It is difficult to predict the magnitude of emission mitigation that can actually be achieved through these various forest management practices, however, because they involve complex institutional, economic, demographic, and cultural factors that influence land-use practices. A number of projects to avoid, sequester, or reduce greenhouse gas emissions through forest management practices are now being jointly implemented by developed and developing countries. These projects, often referred to as carbon offset projects, include efforts in forest conservation and sustainable forest management, reforestation and plantation establishment. Under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, a pilot phase for 'activities implemented jointly' (AIJ) has been established to test and evaluate the feasibility of achieving the objectives of the Convention through such projects. As of June 1996, thirty-two AIJ projects had been reported to the FCCC Secretariat, nine of which are forestry related.

The need for such a multi-faceted approach was highlighted in the United Nations Environment Programme's global assessment of biological diversity, which was released in late 1995.⁹ This comprehensive work reviews current knowledge of the subject; discusses many issues involved in assessing, conserving, valuing and using biological diversity; and mentions recent international initiatives in biological diversity conservation including developments related to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) which was enacted in 1993. The Conference of the Parties of the CBD will work in a complementary way with the Intergovernmental Panel on Forests, and other forest-related fora, to address the conservation of forest-based biological diversity.

⁹ UNER 1995, Global Biodiversity Assessment, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK

Forests and food security

An estimated 840 million people do not have sufficient food to fulfil their basic nutritional needs, despite worldwide increases in food supplies. The problems of world hunger and food insecurity stem from limited physical access to food, the continuing inability of household and national incomes to meet the cost of food purchases, the instability of supply and demand, and natural and human-made disasters. International attention was focused on the issue of food security at the World Food Summit, convened by FAO in Rome in November 1996 and resulting in the Rome Declaration on World Food Security and the World Food Summit Plan of Action. The Summit stressed the importance of ensuring that increases in world food production are achieved through sustainable management of natural resources, and that they are accompanied by measures to ensure universal access to food.

Efforts to achieve worldwide food security will have an impact on forests, and will draw increasing attention to the supportive role that forests play in attaining food security. Increased production of food in developing countries is likely to be achieved through both intensifying food production on existing agricultural lands, and increasing the area of land available for agriculture. FAO estimates that the increase in world food production is likely to be in the region of 1.8 percent per year from now until the year 2010.¹⁰ In order to achieve this, an estimated 90 million ha of new land may be brought into agriculture in the developing countries, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. About half of this is likely to come from forests. The questions are not whether forest land will be converted to agricultural land, but rather, what forest land will be converted and will such land provide greater benefit being managed for agricultural production than for forest goods and services?

¹⁰ Alexandratos, N. (1995), 'World Agriculture: Towards 2010. FAO, Rome,

Apart from the provision of land for agriculture, forests and trees outside forests play important roles in food security. For example, they offer a direct contribution to food supply and to nutritional well-being; provide a source of income necessary to purchase food; give protection to the resource base upon which food production depends; and provide a source of fuelwood to cook food.¹¹

¹¹ Hoskins, M, 1990, The contribution of forestry to food security. In Unasylva vol 41; no, 160,

A wide range of trees and forest products regularly provide food for people, or fodder for their livestock. While forests and trees are not the major suppliers of foods in most farming systems, they often provide important supplements and may be critical in places where there are strong seasonal cycles of food availability and scarcity and where risk of crop failure is high. In addition, they often provide 'fallback' foods in times of emergency. Tree and forest plant products and bushmeat generally make the greatest contribution to the diets of the rural poor who have limited physical and economic access to other foods.

Forests contribute to household food security by providing employment and products for sale. Forest products are major sources of income for many rural poor in developing countries. Forest industries and exports of forest products generate income and foreign exchange for some countries, making it possible for them to import needed foodstuffs.

Certainly the most important contribution of forests to food security worldwide is their role in the protection of the resource base needed for agricultural production. Maintaining good forest cover on critical watersheds is essential for safeguarding a reliable and clean water supply for downstream irrigation systems. Trees used as windbreaks offer essential protection for agricultural fields; windbreaks are used the world over where risk of wind erosion and wind damage to crops is high. Apart from the above, trees are found in intimate association with farming systems throughout the world in a vast array of agroforestry systems, attesting to their economic importance and, ultimately, to their supportive role towards the provision of food security.

Box 3 The role of tree components in farming systems12 12 Adapted from Arnold, M. 1990. Tree components in farming systems Unasylva vol 41, no 160. Tree-growing practices contribute to a wide variety of existing farming systems. Trees tend to be prominent parts of systems where capital and physical resources are limited. In such conditions a tree component within the farming system can play one or more of the following five overlapping roles: 1. Productivity of land in situations of scarce capital can be maintained through the substitution of trees for purchased inputs of fertilizer and herbicide, and investments in soil, crop protection and/or irrigation water. AF systems: contour hedgerows, alley-cropping, improved fallows, intercropping with trees 2. Growing trees can contribute to the productive use of land in situations of scarce capital and labour where trees, as low-input, low-management crops, constitute the most effective use of these resources. AF systems: shifting cultivation, improved fallows, woodlots 3. A tree component can maximize returns to the land in situations where land and capital are limited, and tree/crop/livestock combinations permit fuller use of available labour than alternative uses of the land. AF systems: homegardens, multi-storey tree gardens 4. Income-earning opportunities are enhanced when the total value (per unit labour and capital) of on-farm production can be increased by the inclusion of trees. AF systems: boundary planting, intercropping with trees, woodlots 5. Trees can help to strengthen risk management through diversification of outputs, wider seasonal spread of inputs and outputs, reduction of the likelihood of crop failure through drought, and build-up of tree stocks to provide capital. AF systems: applies to most agroforestry system

The support provided by trees to agriculture, or to the welfare of the farm household including to food security, is most critical in subsistence farming or low-income households. The actual role that trees play depends to a large extent on the balance of availability of land, labour and capital to the farmer. This is illustrated in Box 3 which indicates both the circumstances under which farmers grow or maintain trees in their farming systems, together with some of the agroforestry systems which meet these conditions.

As indicated above, the contribution of forests and trees to food security is often relatively more important to the rural poor and to countries with low per caput GNP than to higher income groups and wealthier countries. The essential role of forests and trees to food security is clearly seen in the countries most vulnerable to food security problems: namely the 32 low-income food-deficit countries with the lowest capacity to finance food imports.¹³ Trees are a critical component of the food production systems in most of these countries: through agroforestry systems which dominate subsistence level agriculture; through provision of fodder in livestock-based agricultural systems; through provision of important forest foods to the populations; or through watershed management (see Box 4).

¹³ FAO. 1995, The State of Food and Agriculture 1995 FAO, Rome.

Box 4 The role of forests/trees in food security in certain low-income food-deficit countries · Agroforestry systems Rwanda, Burkina Faso, Mali, Senegal, Gambia, Haiti, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka · Forest foods/products Gambia, Sierra Leone, Guinea-Bissau, Nepal, Sudan (gum arabic) · Grazing (rangeland) systems Burkina Faso, Mauritania, Mali, Senegal, Djibouti, Somalia, Afghanistan, Sudan · Watershed management Ethiopia, Nepal

Urban and peri-urban forestry The role of forests and trees in urban and peri-urban areas has attracted international attention only within the past few years. It is, however, likely to become an issue of increasing importance given that more than half of the world's population is expected to be urban by the turn of the century. Urbanization is occurring at a rapid rate; the percentage of people living in urban areas has increased from 29 percent in 1950 to 45 percent in 1995. It is expected to reach 61 percent by the year 2025. There has been a doubling of the number of urban dwellers between 1950 and 1995. Most of this increase is taking place in developing countries. While nearly three-quarters of the population of Latin America and the Caribbean is already urbanized (as a result of migration over the past 20-30 years), Asia, Africa and the Near East have only recently reached their peak urbanization rates. Rapid urbanization in these regions is expected to continue for several decades. This is creating, and will continue to create, a host of problems, not the least of which are environmental. The challenges of ensuring an adequate quality of life in urban areas, in developed and developing countries alike, were highlighted by the UN Conference on Human Settlements (Habitat II), held in Istanbul in June 1996.

The roles that forests and trees can play in improving the urban environment and the well-being of urban dwellers are considerable and varied, including: protection of watersheds to prevent erosion and to ensure a clean water supply for the city; protection against sands and winds in arid and semi-arid areas; provision of shade and a cooling effect in hot climates; mitigation of air pollution; buffering of noise; provision of habitat for urban wildlife; and even disposal sites for liquid or solid waste. In addition, the amenity and recreation value of forests, trees and green spaces in cities is widely recognized; greenspace zoning is a standard component of city planning. Provision and maintenance of adequate urban greenspace and trees, however, is more often successfully achieved in developed countries, where city planning can stay ahead of urban growth and funds are available for such a purpose, than in many rapidly urbanizing developing countries. Nonetheless, the psychological benefits conferred by urban forests and parks, and the demand for greenspace, is certainly universal. In some countries (e.g., in the USA and the UK), community tree-planting activities are being used as an effective mechanism for raising environmental awareness, uniting neighbourhoods around a common activity.

Urban forestry can play an important productive role in urban and peri-urban areas. For example, many developing countries, particularly in parts of Africa and Asia, have been active in establishing plantations and managing natural forests in peri-urban areas for fuelwood production to supply urban markets. Agroforestry practised in homegardens in urban household compounds plays an important role in family nutrition in some cities.

While urban forestry and arboriculture are well-established disciplines in many developed countries, this is much less true in most developing countries. In addition, the needs are much broader in developing countries. Far more still needs to be understood about the dynamics between urban growth and forest and tree resources in urban and peri-urban areas, and about the particular roles of urban forestry under the special conditions posed by rapid urbanization of a high proportion of poor people. In addition, more action is needed with respect to monitoring urban forest resources, developing technical aspects of tropical arboriculture, and defining the respective roles and responsibilities of forestry, city parks and other departments and of the urban dwellers themselves in urban forestry.

Global trends in consumption and production of forest products, 1970-94

Factors affecting changes in consumption World consumption and production¹⁴ of forest products is dominated by: fuelwood and charcoal; industrial roundwood; sawnwood; wood-based panels; fibre furnish for paper and paperboard manufacture¹⁵; and paper and paperboard. Box 5 outlines the relationships between these products. Consumption and production of the major products are driven by many factors, of which population and income are the most important.¹⁶

¹⁴ At world level, consumption is equal to production, after adjusting for storage losses and stocks.

¹⁵ Includes all pulp used for paper-making - mainly made from wood but a proportion is made from non-wood fibre sources (such as straw or bamboo, nationally important in China and India respectively), 'Recovered paper' formerly called 'waste paper' for recycling is also included in this commodity group.

¹⁶ Note: the trends presented here are based on international statistics covering both fuelwood, a relatively non-commercialized commodity, and industrial products which are relatively easy to monitor as they are included in most official statistics. Fuelwood is consumed mainly In the informal sector and is rarely recorded; therefore, the information given about it carries less certainty than for industrial forest products.

Both population and income have increased considerably during recent decades. Between 1970 and 1994, world population grew by more than 50 percent. In South America and Africa, it grew by more than 60 percent and 90 percent respectively. World income, measured as GDP, has increased by an estimated 109 percent in real terms during the same period - by 97 percent in developed countries and 160 percent in developing. Except for fuelwood, consumption usually rises with an increase in both population and income: in the case of fuelwood, however, an increase in income tends to lower consumption.

Box 5 Forest products and their inter-linkages All wood forest products originate to a large degree from 'total roundwood' which is subdivided into 'fuelwood and charcoal' and 'industrial roundwood'. The latter is in turn composed of 'sawlogs and veneer logs', 'pulpwood and particles' and 'other industrial roundwood'. Any of these categories of roundwood can either go directly into domestic processing or into international trade. From 'sawlogs and veneer logs' are derived veneers, sawnwood and plywood. From 'pulpwood and particles' (which can include wood chips) is made wood pulp which, in turn, can be traded as market pulp or go directly into making paper and paperboard. The 'wastes' or residues in converting roundwood into sawnwood or veneer and plywood can be chipped and manufactured into other types of panels or into pulp for paper and paperboard. Once used, paper and paperboard can be collected (i.e., 'recovered') and recycled into pulp again, so providing a raw material that supplements fresh wood for paper and paperboard manufacture.

Figure 1 shows the proportional changes for population, income and consumption of the main forest products. Figures 2 and 3 (on pages 48 and 49) summarize key changes in terms of quantities produced, while Table 2 shows changes in per thousand capita apparent consumption.

Figure 1 - Percentage changes over the period 1970-94¹⁷

¹⁷ Commodity data: FAO; Population: UN Statistical Office; GDP: World Bank

Table 2
Approximate apparent consumption per thousand people

product and units		1970	1980	1990	1994
fuelwood and charcoal (m3)
	world	320	332	337	336
	developed	178	207	196	156
	developing	377	376	380	386
industrial roundwood (m3)
	world	346	327	324	262
	developed	1 046	1 002	1 094	864
	developing	67	95	94	92
sawnwood (m3)
	world	112	101	96	73
	developed	343	315	328	241
	developing	20	27	27	25
wood-based panels (m3)
	world	18.99	22.59	23.43	22.45
	developed	62.41	77.24	87.29	78.36
	developing	1.59	3.63	4.91	10.01
paper and paperboard (tonnes)
	world	34.05	38.00	45.43	47.33
	developed	107.79	125.51	158.94	160.75
	developing	4.76	7.56	11.55	15.25

Figure 2 - World production of roundwood by economic category¹⁸ (million m³)

¹⁸ FAO Yearbook of Forest Products, 1979, 1994.

World production of roundwood by economic category¹⁸ (million m³), 1970

World production of roundwood by economic category¹⁸ (million m³), 1990

World production of roundwood by economic category¹⁸ (million m³), 1994

Figure 3 - World production of processed forest products by economic category¹⁹ (sawnwood and wood-based panels: million m³; fibre products: million tonnes)

¹⁹ FAO Yearbook of Forest Products. 1979, 1994.

World production of processed forest products by economic category¹⁹ (sawnwood and wood-based panels: million m³; fibre products: million tonnes), 1970

World production of processed forest products by economic category¹⁹ (sawnwood and wood-based panels: million m³; fibre products: million tonnes), 1990

World production of processed forest products by economic category¹⁹ (sawnwood and wood-based panels: million m³; fibre products: million tonnes), 1994

Major changes

Global consumption of wood has expanded by some 36 percent (around 900 million m³) over the past two and a half decades, reaching almost 3 400 million m³ in 1994.²⁰ Broad estimates suggest the value of this consumption in 1994 to be in excess of US$ 400 000 million, with industrial usage accounting for 75 percent of this. Slightly more than half of the wood volume was used as fuelwood, and the rest was used for a variety of industrial purposes. Fuelwood consumption expanded more rapidly than industrial roundwood consumption, growing by 60 percent to 1 890 million m³ in 1994, while industrial roundwood consumption grew by 15 percent to almost 1 500 million m³, although actually declining from a high of 1 720 million m³ in 1990.

²⁰ The developments reported are based mostly on the FAO Yearbook of Forest Products, the most complete and historically continuous statistical series on these products, with a database that starts in 1961. A full summary of world and regional production and consumption with subtotals for developing and developed categories is in Table 4 of Annex 3.

The decline in consumption from the 1990 level reflects both supply and demand conditions. A major factor was the continued dislocation of output in the Russian Federation where reported industrial roundwood removals were down substantially (around 50 percent from the 1990 level). The decline also reflected weak demand in the industrialized countries. Further, the supply of logs continued to be affected by restrictions on harvesting in North America and the main tropical Asian countries, increasingly due to environmental concerns. Some African countries also increased their restrictions on logging and export, both for forest management reasons and to encourage greater domestic processing.

World production of most individual forest products (Figures 2 and 3) rose substantially in volume terms over the period 1970-94. Only sawnwood had a lower production in 1994 than in 1970. Output ranged from a minor fall in the production of sawnwood, to a 113 percent increase in paper and paperboard products. The slow growth for industrial roundwood masked the fact that coniferous roundwood production only increased by 1 percent, while that of non-coniferous roundwood grew by 48 percent. The main impact was post-1990, as production of both coniferous and non-coniferous roundwood had increased up to that point. Industrial roundwood and sawnwood both reached a peak in 1990 and then declined, mostly due to dislocation of output in the former USSR; recent levels have approached the 1990 high.

Growth rates for consumption of many commodities (see Table 3) during 1980-94 have been slower than for the 1970-80 period in many regions. Of particular note are the following:

· The growth rates of fuelwood and charcoal consumption and of population are nearly equal in developing countries.

· Consumption and production of fuelwood, industrial roundwood and sawnwood grew less than GDP in both developed and developing country categories.

· For wood-based panels, and for pulp and paper commodities, developing country consumption grew much faster than both GDP and population. The developing countries' share of total roundwood production has increased steadily from 49 percent in 1970 to 61 percent by 1994 (see Table 4 and Figure 2). They have increased their share of industrial roundwood from 17 percent to 33 percent.

Changes at a world level, and a breakdown for developed and developing countries, are shown in Figures 2 and 3 and in more detail in Table 4. Regional figures for production and consumption are given in Table 5 of Annex 3. For industrial roundwood, the most impressive changes have occurred, not for the leading consuming regions, but for the others: Africa's consumption nearly doubled to about 60 million m³ between 1970 and 1994 with its share rising from less than 3 percent to 4 percent. South American consumption also rose from 3 percent to more than 7 percent. However, it was the growth of consumption in Asia that transformed the global balance: from consuming 15 percent of world industrial roundwood in 1970, Asia came to account for 21 percent (compared to about 20 percent for Europe) in 1994. Similar shifts have occurred for other commodities. For paper and paperboard the main developments have been the sharp declines in share of consumption by North/Central America and by Europe, mostly in favour of Asia which raised its share from 15 to 30 percent.

Table 3
Consumption growth rates for selected forest products (percent per annum)

region	fuelwood and charcoal		industrial roundwood		wood-based panels		total fibre furnish		recovered waste paper		paper and paperboard
	1970-80	1980-94	1970-80	1980-94	1970-80	1980-94	1970-80	1980-94	1970-80	1980-94	1970-80	1980-94
world	2.23	1.77	1.31	0.10	3.70	1.66	2.93	3.03	6,95	4.95	2.99	3.31
developed	2.35	-1.44	0.38	-0.46	3.02	0.68	2.47	2.12	6.40	4.25	2.39	2.37
developing	2.21	2,26	5.81	1.87	11.09	6.77	7.33	7.72	10.30	7.80	7.32	7.21
Africa	2.82	3,03	3.16	1.88	9.15	-0.32	5.89	2.14	4.80	4.30	4.07	2.90
North/Central America	10.83	1.05	1.11	1.44	1.18	1.74	2.24	2.29	6.90	4.60	2.15	2.47
South America	2.31	2.00	7.98	1.90	10.20	0.75	7.12	2.69	2.90	2.55	6.30	2.99
Asia	1.72	1.90	3.28	1.07	4.63	5.50	4.85	6.48	2.90	7.00	5.52	6.70
Europe	-2.61	-0.04	0.54	0.04	4.52	0.60	2.40	2.53	9.25	4.35	2.34	2.72
Oceania	1.87	1.53	0.47	1.09	3.35	2.58	2,66	1.65	6.35	2.95	2.85	2.95
former USSR	-0.92	-6.55	-0.72	-7.19	6.23	-5.94	3.30	-6.62	9.60	-5.10	2.91	-8.55

Table 4
Summary breakdown of world production of roundwood by economic category, 1970-94 (million m³)²¹

²¹ Calculated from FAO Yearbook of Forest Products. 1979, 1994 editions. 'Other industrial roundwood' adjusted from published data for wood residues and shares of developed and developing countries pro-rated.

		1970		1990		1994
		volume	percent	volume	percent	volume	percent	1970=100
total roundwood
	world	2 463	100	3 499	100	3 358	100	136
	developed	1 257	51	1 559	45	1 318	39	105
	developing	1 206	49	1 947	55	2 122	61	176
fuelwood and charcoal
	world	1 185	100	1 780	100	1 891	100	160
	developed	187	16	234	13	191	10	102
	developing	998	84	1 546	87	1 700	90	170
industrial roundwood
	world	1 278	100	1 718	100	1 467	100	115
	developed	1 070	84	1 318	77	1 051	72	98
	developing	208	16	401	23	417	28	200
of which: saw and veneer logs
	world	757	100	1 056	100	895	100	118
	developed	623	82	808	76	644	72	103
	developing	134	18	248	24	251	28	187
pulpwood and particles
	world	314	100	434	100	496	100	158
	developed	300	95	376	87	427	86	142
	developing	14	5	58	13	69	14	493
other industrial roundwood
	world	207	100	228	100	76	100	37
	developed	149	72	137	60	27	35	18
	developing	58	28	91	40	49	65	84

Fuelwood and charcoal consumption increased by about 60 percent to reach an estimated 1 890 million m³ in 1994, of which about 1 percent was charcoal. Over the 1970-94 period, Asia accounted for half of the world's fuelwood use; Africa's share increased from one-fifth to more than one-quarter due to that continent's high population growth and relatively low incomes. Rapid economic growth in some large Asian countries (notably China, India, Indonesia) may slow down that region's fuelwood dependency. Up to now, however, rather than reducing their share as their economies have grown, the developing countries have expanded their share of global consumption of fuelwood and charcoal from 84 percent two decades ago to 90 percent in 1994 (see Box 6).

The energy role of wood is not, however, confined to fuelwood and charcoal, and the data should not be confused with 'total wood energy'. Box 7 shows the many other ways in which wood has retained importance in energy even in the developed region of Europe.

On a per caput basis, consumption of all commodities from sawnwood to newsprint and packaging boards continued to grow since 1970. For developed countries, consumption per caput increased for most products, with that of panels and paper rising by more than 40 percent.

Developing countries, which had per caput consumption rates between 2 percent and 6 percent of the developed country levels in 1970 for the above commodities were, by 1994, consuming around10 percent or more. Most of this consumption increase was due to the rapidly growing economies of Asia. For wood-based panels and for paper and paperboard, developing country per caput consumption tripled between 1970 and 1994. As their purchasing power grows, developing countries can be expected to continue to close the gap with the industrialized countries; Asian countries have already begun to equal or surpass Europe as a consumer of a number of commodities. For industrial roundwood, Latin America is also significant on the world scale.

Box 6 Fuelwood, charcoal and wood energy Two in five people worldwide rely on fuelwood or charcoal as their main or sole source of domestic energy for cooking and heating. One-half of today's estimated 2 000 million users face fuel shortages as supplies of wood fuels dwindle. Among these, perhaps 100 million already experience virtual 'fuelwood famine'. Estimates suggest that the number of people relying on wood fuel will increase to 3 000 million by the end of the century. Alternatives to wood fuels are often limited in rural areas that are remote from national power grids or centres of distribution of fossil-based fuels such as kerosene or coal. Yet, even where such conventional or 'convenience' fuels are available, many cannot afford them or simply prefer to use wood fuels for specific purposes. Concern arose in the 19 70s and early 19 80s of the possible social and environmental consequences of fuelwood shortages, including, among others, deforestation, desertification, negative nutritional impacts and hardship associated with fuel collection. There was concern that the 'fuelwood crisis' was already occurring in some places, most notably, in Africa's Sahel, Brazil's northeast and the highlands of Nepal. National and international efforts were launched to find ways to increase production, to reduce household consumption of wood and wood-based fuels, and to identify alternative renewable energy sources for household use. The 1981 UN Conference on New and Renewable Sources of Energy, convened in Nairobi, Kenya, acted as a stimulus for these activities. Without doubt, fuelwood shortages and overcutting can have negative economic, environmental and social effects. But, in most cases, fuelwood collection is not a primary cause of deforestation. Furthermore, it is now clear that fuelwood production and harvesting systems can be, and often are, sustainable. While the extent and the nature of the 'fuelwood crisis' has been reassessed, dependence on wood fuel is, and will continue to be, a reality, necessitating continued efforts to ensure adequate and sustainable supplies. In addition, economic and environmental concerns may provide opportunities for an expanded role for wood energy. Its potential as an environmentally-friendly and affordable energy source for industry is being considered and, in some cases, realized by many countries. The potential of biomass energy, including wood fuels as a substitute for fossil-based fuels, is also being investigated as a means of mitigating global warming.

Box 7 Europe: energy dominates wood end-use It is reported that in 1990, 47 percent of wood harvested in Europe, equivalent to 208 million m3, was used for energy.22 However, only about 44 percent of this was actually used in the form of fuelwood; another 24 percent was in the form of pulping liquors while the rest ended up as energy through other channels, such as in the burning of discarded pallets etc. According to the report, energy generation is 'by far the largest end-use for wood in volume terms [in Europe].' Equivalent information is not readily available for other regions. 22 European Timber Trends and Prospects: into the 21st Century. Geneva Timber and Forest Study Papers No. ECE/TIM/SP/11. UN-ECE/FAO. UN, New York and Geneva, 1996.

Notwithstanding the growth of both population and incomes, sawnwood seems to have reached a plateau, with long-term consumption nearly stagnant relative to other processed forest products. Although the developing countries have achieved a doubling of sawnwood production since 1970, this is far less than the gains achieved for other commodities: a five-fold increase in pulp for paper and also in total fibre furnish; almost a six-fold increase in panels and recovered waste paper; and more than a six-fold increase in paper and paperboard (see Box 8).

Production of wood-based panels (veneer, plywood, particle boards, and fibreboards) has been particularly dynamic. Production in the developing countries has grown more than five-fold. New types of panels have competed with traditional ones and have also created new opportunities for use. Market shares are undergoing continual change in many markets.

There has been particularly rapid growth in the consumption of pulp and paper products and, in parallel, greater recycling. So rapid has this growth been, that world per caput consumption has increased by about 40 percent; consumption in developing countries is up more than three-fold, the fastest gains being in Asia. Non-wood fibre use has also grown rapidly in Asia.

Pressure on resources and responses As indicated earlier, the post-1970s period has witnessed a major increase in population; e.g., in Africa, population has nearly doubled. As much of the population increase has been in poorer countries, the demand for land for cultivation and pasture, in addition to infrastructure development, has exerted considerable pressure on forests. Meanwhile, the rising incomes of some major countries in the developing world have also created a greater demand for industrial forest products. This has added to other pressures and to already high consumption levels in developed countries.

These pressures have resulted in concern over deforestation and the sustainability of forests. International efforts to alleviate these problems became a hallmark of the late 1970s to mid-1980s. In industrialized countries, concern and economic pressures have led to a surge of efforts to use wood more efficiently. In. fact, one of the most significant developments of the 1970-94 period has been the efficiency gains achieved in processing. More products are being made with less wood from the forest, a situation which has major long-term implications for the sustainable management of forests and the adequacy of raw material supplies.

Successful adaptation is shown by the fact that, although processed products grew very rapidly (by two-thirds for pulp for paper, two-fold for total fibre furnish, and more than two-fold for paper and paperboard), consumption of the roundwood raw material itself was practically stagnant, having only increased by 15 percent. Particularly in developing countries, much of the waste that was previously left as forest residues at harvest sites is now being collected; wastes from saw and veneer mills increasingly end up as feedstock for reconstituted-panel products mills to make particle boards or fibreboards, and for pulp mills. Box 5 on page 31 presents developments in recycling; Figure 4 in this section shows the growing significance of recovered paper (which is recycled) in total fibre supply for paper and paperboard manufacture.

Box 8 Sawnwood - possible reasons for its slow-down in growth Sawnwood consumption appears to have reached a plateau in most countries. There is at least partial evidence of effective substitution for sawnwood by wood-based panels in certain key end-uses; in 1970 panels were equivalent to only 17 percent of sawnwood in volume but this ratio climbed to 24 percent by 1990 and 30 percent by 1994. This may have contributed to the slow-down in demand for sawnwood, although some of the increase in the use of panels may reflect new markets altogether. It seems likely that some of the most important factors restraining sawnwood consumption are as follows: · Sawnwood is a product that generally demands larger and higher quality logs, which are increasingly scarce. Those that are available may be being diverted to more profitable end-uses (such as plywood). Availability of large logs for industry may also be increasingly constrained by environmental pressures to protect old-growth forests. · The leading consumer countries (in North America, Scandinavia and Europe generally) may be approaching saturation levels of per caput requirements. Furthermore, relative to panels and non-wood sheet material substitutes, sawnwood demands relatively more labour to use (a costly and scarce factor in these countries). · The current group of rapidly developing countries may not have the same timber construction traditions that drove the high demand in developed countries when they were at the same income levels. There is one more possible explanation: in the main producing countries, there may be a preference for higher value-added products being made directly from sawnwood so that an increasing share of sawnwood output is not produced as a commodity for sale but for input into secondary products, milled products, furniture and joinery components etc. Such output might not even feature in sawnwood statistics just as utility veneer is reported mostly as its end product, plywood. Clearly, more research is needed to clarify the dynamics of the sawnwood industry today.

It is worth noting, however, that much of this change can be credited to marketing efforts in combination with technological advances. For example, marketing has created a demand for entirely new products to the point where panels made from chipped waste wood have not only partly substituted for existing products (sawnwood and plywood) but have also created new opportunities for the use of wood.

Forest products in 1994

As for other post-1990 years, 1994 was well below the historical trend in terms of production and consumption of forest products - the dislocation of production in the former USSR was still affecting world totals, particularly those for the developed countries. Due to the growth in the use of fuelwood, however, total roundwood consumption in 1994 was only 4 percent lower than in 1990. Industrial roundwood output, however, was down by 20 percent in developed countries and up by 4 percent in developing countries compared to 1990 levels. Output of sawnwood and wood-based panels, the other solid products, was also down in developed countries but had either been stable or had increased in developing ones.

Despite the situation in the former USSR, pulp and paper production increased in both developed and developing countries. This reflects only partly the fact that, although important, the former USSR was not decisive as a producer. More important is the evidence it gives of this sector's growing independence from forest supplies of raw materials. For example, production of wood pulp (to which the former USSR is a significant contributor) declined relative to 1990; it was, however, more than compensated for by a 21 percent increase in waste paper collection so enabling paper and paperboard production to rise by 6 percent in developed and 42 percent in developing countries.

Figure 4 - Changes in composition of total fibre furnish 1970-94 (million tonnes)²³

²³ FAO Yearbook of Forest Products. 1979, 1994

In 1994, historical concentration of consumption and production continued. This also emerges as an issue in the section titled 'The global outlook for forest products' beginning on page 74. Using consumption of industrial roundwood and paper/paperboard as examples, three regions together account for 93 percent of consumption of paper and paperboard and for 81 percent of consumption of roundwood (see Table 5 of Annex 3).

As Figure 5 shows, concentration is also reflected in the fact that, of total 1994 production, the main five countries for each commodity accounted for:

· 48 percent of fuelwood (note that these were all developing countries - in order: India, China, Brazil, Indonesia and Nigeria);

· 60 percent of industrial roundwood;

· 57 percent of sawnwood;

· 53 percent of wood-based panels;

· 66 percent of total fibre furnish for paper manufacture; and

· 63 percent of paper and paperboard.

Comparing production and consumption patterns in tropical vs. non-tropical countries (see Table 6 of Annex 3), tropical regions accounted for three-quarters of both production and consumption of fuelwood and charcoal in 1994. By contrast, they accounted for only 17 percent of production and 20 percent of consumption of industrial roundwood.

References have already been made to the relative importance of developed and developing countries in production and consumption of fuelwood and industrial commodities. Table 5 reveals the rapidly growing importance of developing countries in production of processed forest products. Clearly, with growing consumption in home markets for those commodities of which they have traditionally been exporters, developing countries will be able to export less in the future. Market opportunities for forest products will grow faster in developing rather than mature-economy countries. The 'global outlook' section on pages 74-90 highlights how the shifting pattern of regional dominance and concentration may affect trade prospects for key regions.

Figure 5 - The world's five main producers in 1994, by commodity²⁴

²⁴ FAO Yearbook of Forest Products. 1994.

Fuelwood

Industrial roundwood

Sawnwood

Wood-based panels

Total fibre furnish

Paper and paperboard

A setting for the future

In summary, the following points have significance for the future:

· Fuelwood remains important and, in fact, continues to grow, with consumption now exceeding that of industrial roundwood. Provision of fuelwood must remain a central part of the forest products and resource-management agendas. Given such importance, the quality of data on fuelwood must be improved. New research is needed to update consumption coefficients, to characterize the changes in sources of fuelwood, and to place the commodity in a clearer context relative to other energy types as countries develop.

· In considering other potential uses for fuelwood, cases may exist where the demand for both fuel and industrial raw materials creates significant competition. A better information base on the sources of fuelwood relative to those of industrial inputs is therefore necessary.

· While the consumption of processed products expanded rapidly, the use of industrial roundwood grew by only 15 percent in two and a half decades. This encouraging development shows that industry has succeeded in increasing output with less roundwood raw material input, in recycling more materials and in using more residues. This suggests that a similar process must be induced in developing countries so they can enjoy consumption growth without placing unnecessary stress on the forest resource.

· The emergence of recycling of paper fibre on a major scale creates, for the first time, the prospect of a significant distance, although not a total separation, between the paper industry and the forest. This, however, may create problems for the profitable management of many forests.

· Concentration of production and consumption is a permanent feature of the industrial forest products scene. Asia's recent growth is occurring