Per caput demand for livestock products
Total demand and supply
Scenarios of livestock production
In the scenario of the per caput demand the expected increase in incomes in developing countries are believed to cause a shift towards more meat, milk and eggs in the human diet, and a relative decrease in the consumption of cereals and starchy foods. In developed countries with current high consumption levels, future per caput meat consumption may not change or even decrease as incomes rise further. In many developing countries the current meat, milk and egg consumption levels are very low compared to those in developed countries and major increases in the per caput consumption of livestock products can be expected along with rising incomes. The consumption scenarios used as a basis for this study (Appendix 2) were adapted from Zuidema et al. (1994). Although it is difficult to predict future consumption, certain generalizations can be made recognizing specific regional, cultural or religious differences and nutritional preferences. However, considering the extremely long time period covered by the scenarios, even these factors may change. Hence, the scenarios must be considered as one possible orientation for changes in consumption patterns, based on only one scenario of economic development. It must be stressed that even the base year data include considerable uncertainty.
The per caput total meat consumption shows an increase by a factor of 2 between now and 2050, and by a factor of 2.5 between now and 2100 in developing countries (both with and without China) (Figure 1; Table 3). The assumed increase in the demand for eggs is even faster (factor 3) and the demand for milk will increase by about a factor of 2 between now and 2100 (Appendixes 7 and 8). In most regions the per caput demand for pork and poultry meat make up the major part of the growth in total meat demand (Figure 1), while beef is assumed to increase in Near East in Asia and North Africa. In the scenario South Asia is assumed to remain basically vegetarian. It is not certain, however, that India, the major country in the South Asia region, will not change its consumption pattern in the next century as per caput incomes increase1.
1 An increase in the meat consumption in South Asia would have important repercussions for the feed demand and consequently the production and harvested areas of cereals (mainly maize), root and tuber crops, and oil crops.
The per caput egg and milk consumption is assumed to increase dramatically in all regions, although milk consumption remains at a relatively low level in China and East Asia. In the last two regions only a minor part of the population consumes milk at present, and in the scenarios the increase is caused by the consumption of more milk-derived products (Appendix 2).
Scenario of population and food consumption for all developing countries including China
b) per caput consumption for all commodities (including total cereals, i.e. including non-food use);
c) per caput consumption of livestock products;
d) total consumption of livestock products.
TABLE 3 - Demand per caputa, total domestic demandb, production and self-sufficiency ratios (SSR)c for total meat for developing regions
a Per caput demand in kg per year
b Total demand and production in 106 metric ton per year
c SSR is expressed in % of domestic demand
While the per caput demand for meat, milk and eggs in the scenario increases by a factor of 2-3 in most regions, the total demand increases much faster (Figure 1). For all developing countries including China the total meat consumption may increase by a factor of 4 between now and 2050 and by a factor of 5 between now and 2100; a somewhat faster increase is seen for all developing countries excluding China (Table 3).
A very fast increase occurs in the scenarios for Sub-Saharan Africa (> factor 6 in 1990-2050; > factor 10 in 1990-2100), Near East in Asia (> factor 6 in 1990-2050; > factor 10 in 1990-2100), East Asia (> factor 4 in 1990-2050; factor 8 in 1990-2100).
The meat consumption pattern differs from one region to another (Appendixes 3-6). At present pork is the major contributor to animal proteins in all developing countries including China (Appendix 2). If China is excluded, beef is the most important animal protein source, while in China pork is the most prevalent kind of meat. These patterns may change in the future (Appendix 2). The importance of poultry meat may increase at the cost of pork and beef in all developing countries and in China. The increase in the production of total meat is mainly caused by the increase in production of pork and poultry meat (Figure 1).
The total demand for eggs increases by almost a factor of 5 between now and 2050, and by almost a factor of 8 between now and 2100 (Figure 1; Appendix 7a). The production scenario shows an identical pattern. For all developing countries, excluding China, the increase in the demand is even faster, indicating a slower than average increase in China. The regions with highest rates of increase in egg consumption are Sub-Saharan Africa (> factor 10 in the period 1990-2050; > factor 20 for 1990-2100); South Asia (factor 8 between 1990 and 2050; factor 15 for the period 1990-2100); Near East in Asia (close to a factor of 8 in the period 1990-2050; factor 14 in 1990-2100).
According to the scenario the total milk consumption will increase more slowly than meat and egg consumption (Appendix 8a), i.e., by a factor 3.6 in the period 1990-2050 and a factor 5 for 1990-2100 in all developing countries including China. Regions with current low milk consumption (East Asia, China) remain relatively low in both their per caput and total consumption.
In the past the dominant sources of growth in livestock production in the developing countries have been livestock numbers and offtake rates. Alexandratos (1995) concluded that there is considerable uncertainty in the historical data on animal populations, which makes it difficult to describe past developments. There has been a general trend towards more intensive production systems; this trend will continue and in the future much of the increased output of pork and poultry meat, and dairy products, may come from further expansion of intensive and semi-intensive production systems with the use of supplementary feedstuffs. Eggs, pork and to a lesser extent, dairy production systems, tend to be relatively responsive to changing market conditions. At the level of individual production units, the growth process tends to be discontinuous rather than evolutionary. Ruminant meat production is much less responsive to changes in demand because of the longer reproduction cycles. Therefore, in ruminant systems the changes occur more slowly than in non-ruminant production. The possibility of increasing production through gradual transformation from traditional to intensive production is generally insufficient to meet the growing demand. For this reason, modern production systems similar to those in developed countries have emerged in many developing countries alongside the traditional production systems. This development will continue in the future, with a growing share of total production coming from intensive systems. In the following sections scenarios will be presented for carcass weight and offtake rate (determining collectively the meat production per head) for cattle, pigs, goats and sheep and poultry. The milk production per milking animal for dairy cattle, goats and sheep and the egg production per head for poultry will also be demonstrated.
For each item three scenarios will be presented (Table 2). The medium scenario is a continuation of the annual increase proposed for 1990-2010, up to a maximum or production ceiling (Table 2). The high or optimistic scenario has faster growth (1.25 x that of the medium scenario) and a higher production ceiling than the medium scenario. The low or pessimistic scenario describes a slower growth (0.75 x that of the medium scenario) with a lower production ceiling than the medium scenario. In the case of meat production, future increases can be achieved by accelerating both the growth process (increasing offtake rates) and the weights at slaughter (carcass weights). The animal populations depend on the total demand and the production per animal, the latter being the resultant of offtake rate and carcass weight. The scenarios are summarized in Table 2. The full set of assumptions is presented in Appendixes 3-8.
The maximum carcass weight assumed is 250 kg/head in the medium scenario, 275 kg/head in the high scenario and 200 kg/head in the low scenario for all regions (Appendix 3b). The carcass weight of 250 kg equals the current level for cattle in Western Europe. For the offtake rate maximum values selected are 35%, 40% and 30% for the medium, high and low scenario, respectively. An offtake rate of 40% is considered as the maximum level of extraction at which the population can be maintained. Exceptions are made where the present levels for offtake rates or carcass weight already exceeds the ceiling assumed for a certain scenario. For example, the carcass weight for beef cattle in 1989/1991 in Latin America was 204 kg/head. As this value exceeds the maximum of 200 kg/head of the low scenario, the carcass weight is assumed to remain constant at 204 kg/head in the low scenario. Similarly, the offtake rate in the region North Africa is 35% in 1989/1991. Therefore, in the low scenario the offtake rate is assumed to remain at 35 %.
The carcass weight of pigs is assumed not to exceed 85 kg/head, which is the present carcass weight of animals in the United States and Western Europe. This maximum carcass weight is equal in all three scenarios (Table 2; Appendix 4b). Offtake rates differ, the maximum value being 160% in the medium scenario (equal to the current rate in the U.S.), 200% in the high scenario (considered as a possible future attainable offtake rate due to faster growth of the animals) and 120% in the low scenario. There are a number of exceptions to the scenario rules, in particular where the present level of offtake rate or carcass weight is already higher than the maximum value assumed for the low scenario (e.g. the medium scenario for offtake rates for East Asia and the low scenario for offtake rates for the regions South Asia, Near East in Asia, North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, where values are assumed to be constant at 1990 levels).
Mutton and goat meat
The production of mutton and goat meat, and milk generally takes place in more traditional systems than pig and cattle production systems. For some regions, however, the high scenario reflects a shift towards more intensive production, with strongly increasing carcass weights and offtake rates (Appendix 5b). As the animal species differ from region to region and as the production takes place in various environmental conditions, the scenarios also differ between regions. As the per caput consumption of mutton and goat meat is nearly constant (Appendix 2), the increase in demand reflects the increase in human population.
In the three scenarios of poultry meat production the maximum carcass weight used is 2.0 kg/head; differences between scenarios are achieved by varying the offtake rates, reflecting the growth of the animals and the period needed to achieve the carcass weight (Appendix 6b). The maximum offtake rate in the medium scenario is 750%, indicating a period of slightly less than 7 weeks to reach the carcass weight of 2 kg. In the high scenario the maximum offtake rate is 1250%, or a period of slightly more than 4 weeks to reach the 2 kg carcass weight. In the low scenario the offtake rate is 500%, corresponding to a period of about 10 weeks. The optimism of the scenarios is based on the expected very fast increase in the demand for poultry meat. Even the low scenario indicates a shift to more intensive production than at present in most regions. Latin America, Near East in Asia and North Africa already have a rather high level of productivity at present (Appendix 6b).
The medium scenario of egg production describes a growth to a maximum annual production of 22.5 kg/head (Appendix 7). The high scenario is based on a maximum production of 25 kg per head and the low scenario on a maximum annual egg production per head of 20 kg/head. The fast growth in per caput demand for eggs and the fast human population growth (Appendix 2) cause a dramatic increase in the total demand for eggs, as discussed above. Despite the optimistic assumptions on the production in all three scenarios, the population of laying hens needs to increase in all regions for all scenarios to meet the growing demand.
As for the meat production scenarios, three different growth rates coupled with different production ceilings were taken to develop three milk production scenarios (Appendix 8b). The medium scenario is a continuation of the growth rate assumed for the period 1990-2010 in AT2010, with a maximum annual production of 6,000 kg milk per milking animal. The high scenario is based on a maximum production of 7,000 kg milk per milking cow per year. With the low annual increase assumed in the low scenario, no maximum production is assumed. There are a number of exceptions. In East Asia the present production is much higher than in the other regions, and the growth in the period 1960-1990 has been much faster than in other regions. Therefore, the maximum production levels are taken as -8,000, 10,000 and 5,000 kg milk per animal per year for the medium, high and low scenarios. It should be noted that at present milk consumption and production are of minor importance in East Asia (Appendixes 2 and 8). In the low scenario for Near East in Asia, North Africa and Latin America the production per head is assumed not to change after 1990. The major reason for this assumption is the nearly constant production per head in the historical period.
Sheep and goats
The milk production per head is assumed not to change after 1990 in the low scenario for all regions (Appendix 8c). With the continuation of the annual increase assumed for 1990-2010 from AT2010 in the medium scenario, and the higher annual increase of the high scenario, no maximum values had to be assumed, because the calculated levels approach still realistic production levels. The production for South Asia and China grow to the highest levels as a result of the continuation of the fast historical growth and present high production per head (Appendix 8c).
Camels represent a minor source of milk in only a few regions. Both the population and production per head are assumed to remain constant at 1990 levels in all three scenarios.
Sheep and goats
The beef cattle population in all developing countries including China increased by 1.4% per year in the period 1960-1990, and will increase by 1.2% per year in 1990-2010, 0.6% per year in 2010-2025 in the medium scenario. After 2025 the beef cattle population stabilizes and even declines somewhat in the period 2050-2100. Dairy cattle increased by 2.3% per year during 1960-1990. The increase will slow down to 1% per year in 1990-2010, 1.7% per year in 2010-2025, 0.8% per year in 2025-2050. The beef cattle population will even decline in the period 2050-2100.
Only in South Asia does the cattle population decease in all three scenarios; this is due to a stable or decreasing per caput demand for beef combined with production increases (Appendix 3b). In East Asia, China and Asian centrally planned countries. Near East in Asia and North Africa the animal populations increase in all scenarios. In Sub-Saharan Africa the population starts decreasing after an initial increase between 1990 and 2050 in the medium and high scenarios. In Latin America animal populations start decreasing after an increase in the period between 1990 and 2010 in all three scenarios.
The share of milking animals grows more slowly than that of the total population. The major regions for dairy cattle are South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. In the medium scenario the population is almost stable in South Asia; it decreases after 2010 in Latin America and increases by some 30% in Sub-Saharan Africa.
The population of pigs in all developing countries, including China, showed an increase of close to 4% per year in the period 1960-1990; in the medium scenario this increase rate will decrease to 2.7% per year in 1990-2010, 0.9% per year in 2010-2025, respectively, and the population will stabilize and even decline in the period after 2025.
In the first decades of all scenarios in all regions except North Africa and Near East in Asia there is a drastic increase in the number of pigs (Appendix 4b). In some regions (East Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America) the populations of pigs continue to increase after 2010 in all three scenarios, indicating the fast growth in the demand for pork which can not be met by the assumed increase in productivity. In China and centrally planned Asian countries and in South Asia, the pig populations decrease after 2025 in all scenarios, caused by the assumed stabilization of the per caput demand.
The poultry population increased by close to 5% per year during the period 1960-1990, and even more than 6% per year in 1980-1990. In the medium scenario the number of animals will continue to increase during 1990-2010, but at a somewhat slower rate of 2.3% per year, and for 2010-2025 the increase rate will decrease to 1.8% per year.
The poultry populations in most regions increase in all scenarios. Only in the high scenario in China and centrally planned Asian countries (after 2025), East Asia and South Asia (after 2050) and Latin America (after 2075) do the populations show a decrease. These patterns reflect the human population growth plus the fast increase in per caput demand for poultry meat in all regions. The resulting increase in demand can be met by combination of shifts towards more intensive production systems and rapidly increasing populations.
The sheep and goat population in all developing countries including China will continue its fast increase of 1.4% per year (1960-1990) during the period 1990-2010 (1.3% per year) according to the medium scenario, increasing even further in the period 2010-2025 (2.7% per year) and slowing down to 1.6% per year and 0.8 % per year during the periods 2025-2050 and 2050-2100.
The population of sheep and goats increases in all regions, reflecting the slow increase in production per animal in the medium scenario. The regions with major populations are China and Asian centrally planned countries. South Asia, Near East in Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. The greatest increase in sheep and goat population is seen in South Asia, where in the medium scenario the population increases by almost a factor of 3 between 1990 and 2050. In the high scenario in some regions the population shows a decrease (Near East in Asia after 2025; Sub-Saharan Africa after 2050; Latin America after 2010) or stabilization (South Asia).
The share of milking animals develops in a different way. In the low scenario the population of milking animals increases in all regions. In the high scenario the population decreases in East Asia, China and South Asia after the year 2010, while populations in the Near East in Asia, North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America decrease in a later period, in general after 2050. In the medium scenario the milking sheep and goat population continues to increase up till about 2050, except in East Asia, where population starts to decrease in about 2025.
The camel populations are assumed to remain constant after 2010.