FIELD DOCUMENT

INSTITUTIONAL STRENGTHENING IN THE FISHERIES SECTOR
BANGLADESH

BGD/87/045/91/07JULY 1991

Cover
ANALYSIS OF THE CONSTRAINTS TO AND POTENTIALS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR EXPANDED FISH PRODUCTION IN BANGLADESH
TABLE OF CONTENTS


Kee-Chai CHONG

Planning Expert and Project Analyst

and

Nazrul ISLAM
Deputy Chief, P&E, DoF

Monowara BEGUM
Deputy Chief, P&E, MFL

MINISTRY OF FISHERIES AND LIVESTOCK, DEPARTMENT OF FISHERIES GOVERNMENT OF BANGLADESH

UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANISATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS


This field document is one of a series of reports prepared during the course of the project on Institutional Strengthening in the Fisheries Sector of Bangladesh. The conclusions and recommendations given in the report were considered appropriate at the time it was prepared. They may be modified in the light of further knowledge gained at subsequent stages of the project.

The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this document do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the United Nations or the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This document is in its final draft form. The opinions expressed by the authors are not necessarily those of FAO or the Government of Bangladesh.

FOREWORD

As senior members of top management for the fisheries sector, we are naturally interested in the structure and conduct of the fisheries industry and how they affect the performance of the primary sector and related industry. As is well known, fisheries is very important to the country's economy both at the national and local levels.

The sector not only employs or provides the livelihood means to about 10% of the country's labour force or about 11 million people but it is the employment of last resort for many thousand others seeking income-generating activities to support their families. In addition to this labour-absorption capacity of the sector, the fish landed also provides more than 80 % of the animal protein consumed by the people.

Further, for every Tk 100 of the national and agricultural Gross Domestic Product (GDP), fish output contributes and accounts for Tk 3.5 and Tk 6.5 respectively. More significantly, fish exports account for Tk 14 for every Tk 100 of the much needed foreign exchange earned.

In spite of its socioeconomic importance, investments and management of such investments have not received commensurate attention and resource allocation until recently. It is for this reason, among others that the performance of the fisheries sector has been less than expected.

We are therefore especially happy to see the publication of this study on the analysis of the potentials and opportunities for and constraints to expanded fish production in Bangladesh. We hope that readers within the public and private sectors will consider and evaluate the findings, conclusions and recommendations of the study and make the necessary improvements to project planning and implementation and also investments in fisheries management and development to improve the sector's production and distribution performance.

Although risks and uncertainty due to severe floods are now reduced or minimised, thus making the embanked and poldered land and water areas relatively safer for settlement and entrepreneurial activities, such opportunities and potentials have not been more widely and actively seized by the people. It is hoped that the findings and recommendations of this study will spur new ideas, innovations and activities to increase national output of fish.

As with any topic as diverse and controversial as the present one on assessing the alternative approaches to develop and tap the country's fisheries potentials and opportunities, we are sure the authors welcome constructive criticisms and suggestions to improve their work further.

Mr. P.C. ChoudhuryMr. A.K. Ataur Rahman
Chief Technical AdviserDirector
UNDP/FAO Project onDepartment of Fisheries
Institutional Strengthening in the Fisheries Sector 
  
Mr. Luqueman AhmedMr. Kazi Azizul Haque
Joint Chief, P&EAdditional Director
Ministry of Fisheries and LivestockDepartment of Fisheries

Dhaka, Bangladesh
03 July 1991

PREFACE

The approach taken in this Sectoral Planning and Project Analysis Component of the UNDP/FAO Project on Institutional Strengthening in the Fisheries Sector for the transfer of professional skills in fisheries planning, economic analysis and forecasting techniques is to put together a comprehensive analysis and of the issues and information gaps involved in the examination of the potentials for and constraints to expanded fish production, along with the necessary training manual and MIS database for fisheries planning. The MIS data bank would contain a set of basic data and information of direct relevance and pertinence to this project component.

The authors believe that unless the issues are explicitly examined, any attempt to impart professional skills and training to the local staff will be based on purely theoretical exposition. These training materials so assembled and analysed will serve as the background materials and issues in the manpower planning, development and training programme of the project component.

It is with this purpose in mind that considerable time, energy and effort have been expended in assembling as exhaustive as practical all the pertinent data and information to achieve the output of the component.

Dhaka 1991Kee-Chai Chong
Planning Expert and Project Analyst

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

In assembling this study, the assistance of many individuals both in their official and individual capacities have been sought and freely given. For their continued support, understanding and friendship, as senior author I would like to single out the following persons: Messrs. Luqueman Ahmad, Joint Chief of the Planning Cell, Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock, A.K. Ataur Rahman, Director of the Department of Fisheries, and Kazi Azizul Haque and Liaquat Ali, respectively Additional Director (Inland Fisheries) and Additional Director (Third Fisheries Project) of the Department of Fisheries. Mr. Haque who is at the same time the National Project Director of the UNDP/FAO Project on Institutional Strengthening in the Fisheries Sector (BGD/87/045) has given freely his limited time for consultation.

The following persons have furnished valuable statistics for this study: Messrs. R.C.K. Banik, Senior Scientific Officer, Sitesh C. Choudhury, Fishery Survey Officer, Manotosh Chakraborty, Statistical Officer and B.S.M. Kashem, Scientific Officer. Also, the cooperation and assistance extended by both the Ministry and Department staff attending the weekly brainstorming sessions are gratefully acknowledged.

This study also benefited from the valuable comments and suggestions provided by Mr.A.D. Insull, Senior Fisheries Planning Officer in his capacity as the UNDP/FAO Project BGD/87/045 Technical Backstopping Officer from FAO Headquarters in Rome and Mr. Charles Angell, Senior Aquaculturist of the Bay of Bengal Programme.

Last but not least, the professional guidance, assistance and understanding provided by Dr. P.C. Choudhury, Chief Technical Adviser of the Project is gratefully acknowledged, without whose encouragement this study would not have been completed.


Hyperlinks to non-FAO Internet sites do not imply any official endorsement of or responsibility for the opinions, ideas, data or products presented at these locations, or guarantee the validity of the information provided. The sole purpose of links to non-FAO sites is to indicate further information available on related topics.

This electronic document has been scanned using optical character recognition (OCR) software. FAO declines all responsibility for any discrepancies that may exist between the present document and its original printed version.


TABLE OF CONTENTS

Foreword

Preface

Acknowledgements

List of Tables

List of Figures

Executive Summary

1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background

1.2 Purpose

1.3 Overview of the Fisheries Sector

1.3.1 Bangladesh Fisheries: Past Present and Future
1.3.2 The Sector and Industry: Supply and Demand
1.3.3 Fish Price Structure
1.3.4 Sectoral/Industry Problems
1.3.5 Export of Fish and Its Future Prospects

1.4 National Development Objectives

1.5 Overview of Planning

1.5.1 Purpose of Planning
1.5.2 Planning Strategies
1.5.3 Planning and Attracting Investment
1.5.4 Plan Implementation and Management

1.6 Fisheries Development Setting

2. SCOPE OF STUDY AND SOURCES OF DATA

2.1 Scope of Study

2.2 Sources of Data

3. CONSTRAINTS

3.1 Overview of Constraints

3.1.1 Constraints Specific to Fisheries
3.1.2 Environmental Constraints
3.1.3 Institutional Constraints
3.1.4 Socio-Cultural-Economic Constraints
3.1.5 Market Constraints
3.1.6 Information and Information Dissemination Constraints

4. RESOURCE BASE

4.1 Natural Endowment

4.2 Capture Fisheries

4.2.1 Inland Open Water Fisheries

Artificial Stocking and Enhancement
Fisheries Laws, Rules and Regulations

4.2.2 Marine Fisheries

Artisanal Marine Fisheries
Industrial Marine Fisheries

4.2.3 Hilsa Fishery

4.3 Culture Fisheries

4.3.1 Pond Systems

Freshwater Fish Ponds
Brackishwater Fish Ponds

4.3.2 Fish Pen and Cage Systems

4.3.3 Integrated Fish Farming Systems

4.3.4 Fish Seed Multiplication Farms

5. POTENTIALS AND OPPORTUNITIES

5.1 General Outlook

5.2 Seed Production and Distribution

5.3 Production for Domestic Consumption

5.3.1 Motivating Fish Production for Low-Income Consumers

5.3.2 Wild Stock Fisheries Enhancement and Management

5.3.3 Rice-Fish Culture

5.3.4 Integrated Fish Farming

5.3.5 Smallscale Marine Fisheries

5.3.6 Production of High Value Low Volume Species

5.4 Export-Oriented Fisheries

5.5 Opportunities in Value-Added Processing

5.6 Post-Harvest Loss and Quality Control

6. GOVERNMENT STRATEGIES AND PLANNING

6.1 General Policy Orientation

6.2 Planned Targets Vs Reality Gaps

6.2.1 Examples of Reality Gaps

6.3 Fisheries Policy Planning

6.4 Manpower Planning

6.5 Fisheries Extension Planning

6.6 Fisheries Technology Planning

6.7 Fisheries Credit Planning and Management

6.7.1 Mobilising Rural Savings Plan

6.8 Fisheries Investment Planning

6.9 Fisheries Information Centre

7. PROGRAMME OF ACTIONS

7.1 Development Options and Alternatives

7.1.1 Alternative to Open Water Stocking
7.1.2 Private Sector Role in Seed Supply
7.1.3 Post-Harvest Handling and Processing Alternatives

7.2 New Market Development

7.3 Fish Production for Low Income Markets

7.4 Fisheries Development, Women and Population Management

7.5 Infrastructure Construction Planning

7.6 Marginal Land and Fish Production

8. PRIORITISING DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS

8.1 Setting Priorities

8.2 Context of Planning

8.3 Investment Profile

8.4 Balancing Domestic Consumption With Export Need

9. DISCUSSIONS AND CONCLUSIONS

9.1 Highlights

10. REFERENCES

LIST OF TABLES

1. Sources of Fish Production, 1984–1989

2. Fish Production: Target and Actual

3. Price Levels of Selected Fish in Dhaka (Wholesale Market Price)

4. Volume and Value of Fish Exports (Tons and US$ Million)

5. Amount Budgeted and Expended for Fisheries Under the Different Five-Year Plans

6. Composition and Distribution of Inland Open Water Fisheries by Major Species

7. Marine Fish Landings and Length of Coastline and Size of Continental Shelf for Selected Countries

8. Annual Fry and Fingerling Requirements

9. Thai Freshwater Aquaculture Technology

10. Pattern of Rural Indebtedness

LIST OF FIGURES

1 Major and Minor Rivers of Bangladesh

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

01. The purpose of this study is to bring together in summary form all the pertinent information relating to the fisheries sector of Bangladesh to examine its potentials for and constraints to further development. The present and future potential contribution of the fisheries sector to fish supplies are analysed with a view to determine how such potentials can be economically tapped to benefit the people.

02. Having examined the resource base as well as recognising the urgent need and demand for fish, constraints to expanded fish production are then critically evaluated. After detailed examination of the development potentials and opportunities, especially in terms of feasibility, a plan and programme of actions and strategy is outlined for government consideration.

03. In sum, this study presents the analysis of the potentials and opportunities for greater fish production in the country's waters, especially inland waters. Growth in capture fish production in Bangladesh has been low, even insignificant to keep pace with demand and need for fish. In fact, inland capture fisheries which historically had been supplying about three-fourth of the country's fish landings has steadily declined at about 2 % each year over the last 5 years.

04. Causes or factors responsible for the slow and/or stagnating growth in the country's fish supply by types of fisheries and waters are reviewed. These constraints to higher fish output are clearly identified and alternative measures are recommended in overcoming them.

05. Various studies and missions have claimed that the more than 200 flood control, drainage and irrigation or flood control and drainage (FCDI/FCD) projects have shifted and improved the land use capability and cropping patterns of the land brought under irrigation or the land reclaimed from perennial inundation by drainage. However, post-project and with-project impact has been quite limited and restricted to accessible areas. There is thus considerable controversy surrounding the different claims on their benefits and impact.

06. For one, the continuing operational, repair and maintenance as well as management problems surrounding the use of these FCDI/FCD structures due to severe government financial constraint have limited the usefulness and beneficial value of these land remodelling structures.

07. The limited benefits already enjoyed by the people, especially FCDI/FCD project residents or inhabitants can still be greatly increased or enlarged. Rural outputs and incomes can be increased if and when a truly integrated approach is taken to harness and utilise these embanked and poldered land and aquatic resources.

08. At present, with one or two exceptions, relatively more emphasis is directed to irrigated agriculture and/or agriculture on flood-reclaimed lands. Even these few activities are oriented to mono-cropping of one or two main crops like irrigated rice and wheat. There is little or no coordinated and integrated effort given to fish production per se or fisheries enhancement programmes in combination with a more diversified agricultural (crop and livestock) cropping base and pattern. This is in spite of the socioeconomic importance of the fisheries sector.

09. Even though the fisheries sector presently only contributes about 3.5% to the total national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and about 6.5% to the agricultural GDP, this sector is more important than what the above statistics convey. Almost the entire nation which is predominantly rural relies on the fisheries for their livelihood: nutrition and subsistence, employment and income (including foreign exchange earnings).

10. For example, fisheries absorbs about 10% of the national labour force or close to 11 million people, distributed as follows: 2 million full-time and 9 million part-time fishermen. Fisheries labour absorption capacity is highest during the flood season between June and October each year. During this period, from 30–50 % of the total land surface area is inundated. This provides a glimpse of the potentials and opportunities for living aquatic resource development in increasing domestic product for the country.

11. Equally important, if not more, fish supplies about 80 % of the animal protein consumed by the population, more than two-thirds of whom subsist or eke out a living on the margin or below the national poverty threshold of Tk2, 350 (US$67) per person per year. Fish's nutritional contribution becomes even more indispensable when it is viewed in the light of the supply of other animal protein sources like beef, poultry and mutton available in the country. The dhal (a rich source of plant protein) or lentil equivalent of the national poverty threshold is estimated at 84–90 kg/capita/year or about 230–250 gm/day.

12. Since the early 1960s, the daily per capita availability of fish has been declining from 33 to 22 gm. The government has stepped up measures to increase fish availability to 25 gm by the end of the Fourth Five-Year Plan (1990–1995). Accordingly, the government has targeted a fish output of 1.2 million tons in the Fourth Five-Year Plan (FFYP). This is about 45 % increase over the Third Five-Year Plan (TFYP) achievement of 840,000 tons. The TFYP target is 1 million tons or a shortfall of 16 %.

13. The 1987/88 GDP is estimated at Tk521,639 million, equivalent to US$14,904 million. In the same period, the value of fisheries and agriculture production is worth Tk18, 789 million or US$537 million and Tk238,295 million or US$6,808 million respectively (based on an exchange rate of US$1 = Tk35). The fisheries share of the agricultural GDP is steadily increasing from 6.5 % in 1986/87 to 7.9 % in 1987/88.

14. Bangladesh exports about 21,000 tons or almost 3 % of its national fish catch valued at US$134 million in 1987/88, an increase of more than 120 and 150 % respectively over its 1982 export volume and value figures. This export revenue from fish, ranked third after jute and garment constitutes about 12–14 % of the total foreign exchange earnings each year and is steadily increasing. Shrimp is by far the main export commodity, accounting for almost 75 % by volume and over 80 % by value of fish exports.

15. Inland fisheries contributes most to total output, accounting for about 73 % of the total catch landed. Smallscale coastal fisheries and industrial marine fisheries each contributes 26 and 1 % respectively. Because of the relative importance of the inland fisheries subsector, the structural and functional organisation and manpower composition of the Department of Fisheries under the Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock reflect this subsectoral orientation.

16. Except for inland open water fisheries whose landings have recently shown a declining trend, the other fisheries subsectors, i.e marine fisheries and aquaculture have registered small positive gains. It is estimated that the share of the capture inland open water fisheries has been declining from 62.6 to 59.8 to 55.7 to 52.9 % since 1983/84.

17. The declining catch from the inland open waters is mainly due to overfishing (too many fishermen after too few fish), reduction in the size of traditional fishing grounds and decrease in fish population recruitment stemming from the extensive and massive FCDI/FCD project structures spread over in more than 200 localities throughout the country. Extensive embankments and polders have obstructed fish migration and recruitment.

18. At the same time, these land remodelling schemes have resulted in widespread breeding and nursery ground and habitat reduction and degradation, in some severe cases even complete destruction. Pollution is another worrying constraint. Other contributory causes and/or constraints include but are not necessarily limited to the following: reclamation of perennial inundated floodlands through drainage for agriculture, outbreaks of diseases, siltation and lack of fisheries management.

19. Even so, compensatory and mitigating measures instituted by the government under past five-year plans, in particular the Third Five-Year Plan (TFYP) such as artificial stocking of open waters with hatchery-produced and wild fish seed and transfer of improved technology have had limited impact. They appear to account for some partial improvement in arresting the rate of decline in fish production. This is particularly so for culture-based fish output. The government estimates that about 65,000 tons of fish landed can be attributed to these compensatory measures.

20. The share of marine fisheries has steadily increased from 21.9 to 24.2 to 26.1 to 26.7 % since systematic fisheries data was first collected in 1983/84. As for culture-based fisheries, its share has similarly increased from 15.5 to 16.0 to 18.2 to 20.4 % for the same period. There is clearly room for further improvement. This can be achieved if more attention is given to management of fisheries investments, especially fisheries project management after its implementation. Also, greater and closer coordination and follow-up are essential to ensure that such projects deliver the outputs as planned. Of equal importance, if not more so, the handing-over and incorporation of terminated projects into the government fisheries structure must not be overlooked as often happened.

21. This analysis of potentials for and constraints to expanded fisheries production argues that fisheries, if properly planned, implemented and managed (through constant monitoring and evaluation) can be made the engine to drive the economic growth of the country on a sustainable basis. Environmentally sustainable fisheries development and management projects are identified to underpin such a national development thrust.

22. The four main programme areas for fisheries under the public sector of the Fourth Five-Year Plan (1990–1995) are as follows:

  1. Survey, Investigation, Feasibility Study and Research

  2. Fisheries Education, Training, Extension and Community Development

  3. Culture and Capture Fisheries Development (including provision of production inputs and development of water bodies)

  4. Fish Landing, Storage, Processing, Marketing, Transportation and Distribution

23. Two major themes for project development underlying the above programme areas as proposed under the 1990–1995 Fourth Five-Year Plan have been identified:

  1. Support Services for the Development, Management and Conservation of Open Water Fisheries Resources in the Country

  2. Integrated Fisheries Development in FCDI/FCD Project Areas and Other Water Bodies,

Specific projects and ideas for projects under the two themes above are either being prepared or planned. Additional themes for project development are also being worked out to underpin the four broad programme areas approved under the new plan. These will be in addition to spillover projects and projects already approved.

24. To support and underpin the new thrust in fisheries, the government has allocated Tk7,500 million or US$214.3 million for the sector under the new Plan. This amount is more than twice the budget of Tk3,500 million or US$105.7 million under the TFYP. The budgetary allocation for fisheries has steadily increased with each successive plan: from Tk480 million to Tk1,740 million to Tk3,500 million and now Tk7,500 million.

25. The country's fisheries' most economically attractive comparative advantage as a “thrust” sector" is that its foreign resource cost of production is small relative to the domestic resource cost of production. Although the local fisheries is not completely inflation-proof on account of cost-price squeeze and its partial reliance on imported inputs, it is by far the sector which can absorb more investments and such price “shocks”. Costs of production are still within the lower limits when compared to those found in other countries.

26. For example, the garment industry which is ranked second in foreign exchange earnings has a large foreign content. Although it is ranked third after jute and garment, fisheries' income and employment “multiplier effect” is greater.

27. Compared to the other sectors in the national economy like agriculture and manufacturing, fisheries as a sector has not been given adequate attention in the past. It is only in recent years that the government has recognised and allocated more funds for its development. The fisheries budgets as a percentage of the agriculture allocations (here agriculture encompasses crop, livestock, forestry, fisheries, water resource and rural development) in the First Five-Year Plan (FFYP), Two-Year Plan (TYP), Second Five-Year Plan (SFYP), Third Five-Year Plan (TFYP) and Fourth Five-Fear Plan (FFYP) are respectively 4.6, 4.9, 2.7, 4.9 and 6.8 %.

28. The percentage figures only improve slightly to 4.9, 5.1, 2.7, 5.2 ans 7.3 % when the fisheries allocation is deducted from the total agriculture budgetary allocations. But what is most significant is that the fisheries budget as a percent of the overall national budget and budget for agriculture shows an increasing trend. The performance of the sector can still be further improved given adequate government attention. Further improvements in its overall performance can be quite easily obtained through improved judicious management of the sector.

29. Although doubts have been voiced and expressed regarding the scope and capability of the fisheries sector to increase output to meet the country's growing demand for fish and the need to export them to earn foreign exchange as well as to absorb the labour entering the job market each year, a closer examination of the sector's potentials, opportunities and constraints reveals that the picture is not as dismal as it is being made out to be.

30. This study shows that there is little doubt that significant additional employment and other income-generating opportunities to absorb the rapidly growing labour force can be created within the fisheries sector through proper planning for a more balanced development among the different fisheries subsectors: inland and marine encompassing both capture and culture fisheries. Under the new Plan, fisheries is expected to generate another one million jobs to absorb the growing labour force entering the employment market each year.

31. This analysis estimates that on average at least one job (unskilled and semi-skilled) is created (1) for every Tk10,000/ha invested in the culture fisheries subsector, especially in the rehabilitation of derelict and culturable ponds, (2) for every Tk50,000/ha invested for open water stocking in the capture fisheries subsector. Here, it is assumed that no new fisherman will enter the fisheries which is already overcrowded.

32. In addition to these jobs created in the primary sector, an additional 2–3 jobs will be available in the input and post-harvest or secondary/ancillary sector in support of the activities in the primary sector.

33. Greater attention should be drawn to the present imbalance in the development and growth between inland open water capture fisheries on the one hand and marine fisheries (coastal artisanal and industrial fisheries) and culture-based fisheries (aquaculture) on the other. Certain fundamental adjustments in the government's fisheries policies, strategies and programme area emphasis as well as in the fisheries industry structure need to be made. A good start can be made in shifting some resources away from open water stocking of public water bodies to more culture-based activities like distributing some of the fingerlings to pond owners.

34. Under the fisheries portfolio, the budgetary allocation for capture inland and marine fisheries and freshwater/brackishwater aquaculture are respectively 42.6, 11.2 and 46.1 % for the FFYP. Although aquaculture receives a slightly greater share of the total budget, the public expenditures or investments in aquaculture will ultimately benefit the inland capture fisheries through its open water stocking programme. It is also obvious that inland capture and culture fisheries receive the bulk of the budget or 88.7 % relative to the share received by marine fisheries or 11.2 %.

35. Similarly, the government should also re-examine the country's philosophy on use rights for fishing as embodied in “Jal Jar, Jala Tar”. There is a certain ambiguity in the philosophy of “the man who owns the net owns the water body” or “the water body belongs to the man who owns the net” as far as management of the fisheries is concerned, in particular for smallscale inland fisheries. A variation of a fishing licence scheme can be designed to monitor and manage fishing effort in such waters.

36. Bangladesh is a fish deficit country (in spite of its vast water resources). Fish has traditionally been and continues to be a “staple” item in the Bangladeshi diet, supplying well over three-fourths of the animal protein consumed. It is estimated that about four-fifths of the household expenditures (proxy for incomes) is allocated or spend on food. This is particularly true among the low to lower-middle income segments of the population. The poverty incidence in Bangladesh is reportedly about 75 %.

37. Priced within the purchasing power of the rural and urban poor with average disposable income of Tk500–1,000/month/household, effective demand for fish will not be a serious problem. Current retail fish prices range from Tk30 to Tk120/kg in Dhaka. These are for hilsa (Hilsa ilisha) and rui (Labeo rohita) respectively.

38. For the other freshwater species such as punti (Puntius sp), pabda (Ompok sp) and pangas (Pangasius pangasius), they can range from Tk40–80/kg in the urban areas and Tk10–60/kg in the rural areas. For marine species like hilsa, Indian salmon (Polydactylus indicus) and pomfret (Pampus sp), the lowest to the highest price is from Tk10–45/kg in the rural areas and Tk35–60/kg in the urban centres.

39. Prices outside Dhaka will vary and in general will be pegged to the prices prevailing in Dhaka and the other major consumption centres and their proximity to the centres of production. Being a fish deficit country in general, especially in urban consumption centres, demand for fish will be more than adequate. In fact, such demand can be further augmented by an appropriate fish consumption promotion campaign and fisheries price policy. In fact, the gap between supply and demand is widening as amply reflected in the rising fish prices. Government attention should also be directed to motivating fish production for low income markets.

40. As such, it is certain that supply disposal will not be a constraint. Furthermore, continuing high population growth rates of about 2.5 % vs 1–2 % fish production growth rates alone will dictate that more fish have to be produced and urgently. At the aggregate level, the per capita fish consumption in fact has been declining since the early 1960s, from 12 to 7 kg per annum. For example, assuming the current very low level of per capita consumption of fish of 22 gm daily from the 33 gm about 30 years ago, by the year 2000 (a short 10 years away) an additional 0.3 million tons of fish is needed to maintain even the present consumption level.

41. Although aggregate demand in general is “actually” suppressed due to a lack of purchasing power at present, the purchasing power of the people is expected to steadily improve over time. Supply of fish instead of its demand is more of a problem. Likewise, the export market for Bangladeshi fisheries products has also been growing steadily and looks very promising. Demand is literally limited by supply. Expanded production of fish is thus urgently needed.

42. In 1986/87, the national fish landing is estimated at about 815,000 tons, of which inland fisheries contributed about 73 % or 597,000 tons. This is followed by smallscale coastal fisheries with an output of 205,000 tons or 25 %. The remaining 1 % is accounted for by the largescale or industrial marine fisheries. In the same year, Bangladesh exported about 21,000 tons of fish or almost 3 % of the total fish catch.

43. Even though total fish landings for 1987/88 and 1988/89 have increased by 1.5 and 1.2 % each consecutive year to 827,000 and 841,000 tons since 1986/87, its growth rate is still below that of the population growth rate. This is in spite of various mitigating measures already adopted to increase production. It is very likely that total supply of fish will decrease in the coming year or so due to the extensive loss of and damage to the country's fishing boats and trawlers as a result of the 29 April 1991 cyclone and floods.

44. Although the local fish distribution and marketing system quite efficiently moves the fish from the producer to the consumer, the quality of the fish marketed in terms of freshness is much to be desired. Definite improvements to the existing post-harvest primary handling system are urgently needed. Many fish landing centres and facilities, including auction halls, wholesale and retail markets at the district, upazila and village levels are haphazardly constructed and organised. With a few exceptions, there is little effort in planning and designing the lay-out of the fish markets.

45. There is even room for further improvement to the existing BFDC (Bangladesh Fisheries Development Corporation) fish landing facilities and its marketing services.

46. Although seasonal market glut has been reported in the past and can be expected in the future, such glut is usually short-lived. This characteristic seasonal glut, if and when it occurs, firstly during the hilsa (Hilsa ilisha) season beginning in May, and secondly during the dry spell towards the end of the year (when the baor, beel and haor fisheries produce higher amount) can be handled quite easily through improved primary handling and greater value-added processing and export to regional markets (e.g. West Bengal). Also, for example there is a market for deboned or boneless fish (e.g. hilsa) in Singapore and Malaysia, and even as far as the Middle East countries and the United Kingdom. With abundant labour, a smallscale industry can be set up to produce deboned fish for exports, similar to the Philippines deboned milkfish industry.

47. Even though the fish landed is primarily sold as fresh uniced or iced fish, a substantial volume is salted and dried during the seasonal glut. This is mainly due to the lack of efficient and low-cost transportation and network of good roads. It is estimated that it cost from Tk1. 50-3.00 to ship a kg of fish from Chittagong to Dhaka by truck or train. Even though the installed ice-making capacity in the country is currently underutilised, reportedly at less than 50 % capacity, the lack of ice at the right place, time and cost is still cited as a serious constraint to efficient marketing of fish.

48. At the moment, there is also no fish canning nor fish cake, fish ball, fish sauce/paste or surimi manufacturing industry in the country. These latter secondary processing activities should not only be looked into to reduce the estimated one tenth to one sixth post-harvest loss from the existing marketing channels but also to add greater value to the catch landed. By improving the handling of fish at the different landing centres in the country, an estimated 100,000–150,000 tons of fish can be “re-injected” or returned to the fish marketing channels, thereby making more fish available to the population.

49. At the same time, it will protect the public from health hazards from eating less than wholesome fish. This is another frequently overlooked scope for government planning and investment in the fisheries sector. For a small investment in improved postharvest handling only, another 150,000 tons of fish (e.g. spoiled due to lack of icing) can be added to the supply again.

50. The returns from such investment in improved handling are obviously high in relation to the cost because the fish are landed but cannot be safely marketed due to spoilage. High returns on investment from fish processing have also been reported in other countries. With the exception of limited quantity of imported canned fish (mostly provided through food grant), Bangladesh so far has not resorted to import any fish to meet its fish deficit. However, unless fish output is quickly stepped up, the country may even have to import them. The country can ill-afford to add another import item to the already burdened national treasury.

51. Therefore, in order for the fisheries sector to be the engine to drive the national economy, government effort must not only be directed and limited to pre-harvest investments but also to integrate it fully with post-harvest investments. The government is presently paying far more attention to “production-oriented” investments but very little in improved primary handling, secondary processing and small-scale contract manufacturing of seafood based on the importing country's product specifications.

52. A good example is the production of surimi or minced fish to fashion out analogue foods like imitation crab or lobster claws, fish fingers and lobster/shrimp tails. This is a real investment opportunity the government should seriously pursue.

53. Other detailed investment ideas and specific projects based on the broad government strategies and development programmes for fisheries as contained in the FFYP are described in the main body of this study. However, no attempt has been made to analyse the detailed financial and economic aspects of the proposed investments and projects except to determine their technical and economic soundness. In other words, they are both feasible and viable within the present economic context.

54. To many readers, this analysis may look like a shopping list of possible investments and project ideas. Which it is and it is not ! It is hoped that this preliminary effort on the analysis of the potentials for and constraints to expanded fisheries production in Bangladesh will lead to the preparation of a series of INVESTMENT PROFILES for the fisheries sector. Such Fisheries Investment Profile series can be used to inform and attract both domestic and foreign private sectors to greatly increase their investments in Bangladeshi fisheries.

55. Under the new plan, the government has projected an investment of Tk6,000 million from the private sector. To mobilise such a private sector investment outlay clearly requires a more active government involvement than had occurred in the past. The investment targets set for the private sector in the past 4 plans (including the TYP) have not been fully achieved.

56. It should also be pointed out that the natural calamities like monsoons and flooding which occur each year make investments in this country relatively more risky. Such risks, however have been minimised in recent years through extensive FCDI/FCD engineering works. Nevertheless, these risks still remain. Other investment risks take the form of the so-called “high cost economy” in conducting business in this country.

57. Abundant and cheap labour, provided with the necessary skill training can soften some of these negative business aspects. Even so, cheap and abundant labour is no longer a great inducement in many developing countries because of the quality of output and work performance, in particular labour productivity.

58. Integrated approach to planning has alot of merits instead of the present reliance on top-down approach nor is sole dependence on bottom-up approach the best way to tackle economic and development planning. More fundamentally, it must be pointed out that no amount of planning will work until and unless the wage and price structure is examined and steps taken to correct some of its inherent “disincentives” and weaknesses.

59. Financially profitable and socioeconomically rewarding fisheries production systems can be successfully established in this country provided modern planning and management are diligently applied. This detailed analysis has pointed out fresh directions, thrusts and approaches which the authorities responsible for fisheries development, production and management should take into consideration with a view to helping the sector to take off.