2.1 The approach
2.2 The structure of the study
2.3 The model
2.4 The Projection
The approach of the study has been developed through three main steps:
· standardisation of the forest resources information in such a way that comparisons of areas and roundwood supply between countries and sub-regions are possible;· derivation of the present situation of forest resources and roundwood supply in the different countries forming the region;
· development of a realistic scenario which describes the likely size, state and composition of the Asia Pacific forestry resource and of supply by 2010.
The country forest resources situation has been derived from the most reliable and up-to-date information on the state of forests and forestry available at FAO Headquarters. To provide "the most probable" situation by the year 2010, a model has been developed which works on a spreadsheet (Excel). The design of the model has been kept user friendly and simple. Formulas - standardised for all countries - are linear and mainly based on common sense; it is felt that in the absence of solid information, use of complex models might suggest greater knowledge than currently exists. The scenario mechanism is a tool to show signals based on possible forecasts for forest resources and wood supply under various assumptions. Under the study assumptions, users may modify any given parameters and build up their own image of the expected future situation; in this way, the implications of possible interventions or policies can be tested before decisions are taken.
It should be stressed that the aim has been to derive orders of magnitude. Greater precision would require more accurate information than many of the countries in the region are able to provide at present.
For the purpose of the study, the Asia-Pacific region will extend from Pakistan in the west to the International Date Line in the east; from Mongolia, China and Japan in the north, to include the Pacific Islands until Australia and New Zealand inclusive in the south. It will not include the Russian Far East or any of the Americas.
For the study, a total of 24 countries (or group of islands) have been analysed and the Asia Pacific region has been sub-divided into the following five geographic sub-regions:
· North Asia: China, Japan, Korea (Rep.), Korea (Dem.), Mongolia;
· Oceania-Pacific: Papua New Guinea, Melanesia, Polynesia, New Zealand, Australia;
· Insular Asia: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines;
· Continental South-East Asia: Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, Vietnam;
· South Asia: Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh.
Sub-regions and countries are classified in decreasing order of forest and wooded land areas as in 1990. Each country has been studied individually; summation of country data was used to obtain the sub-regional and regional estimates of the forest resources status and the roundwood supply (potential and fellings). Islands of the Pacific have been grouped into Melanesia and Polynesia Islands.
To present the situation of the forest resources and roundwood supply in each country and to work out a possible scenario showing the likely evolution up to the year 2010, a model has been developed. The model runs by 5 year periods with a set of formulas and parameters for which definitions are detailed in Section 3.
Some prerequisite assumptions have been made and are related to wood production, felling and growth. Assumptions and parameters needed to establish the forest resources status and to develop the base scenario are given below.
Wood production
The study considers that wood production originates from three main sources:
· production forests: comprise all natural exploitable forests and plantation forests.· other forests and wooded lands: low productive, poor, open forests or forests partially or totally protected. These forests contribute to the wood supply of the local population (but this contribution is often unrecorded). Wood destruction due to fires and other natural disasters is not considered in the study.
· non forested lands: are all but forested areas. Commercial tree crops (mainly rubber and coconut) in some countries and arable lands produce significant amounts of wood. Rangelands, barren and rocky lands, deserts are considered as wood un-productive areas.
Wood fellings
The study considers that:
· Fellings of industrial roundwood: originate only from the production forests and that the industrial roundwood supply is commercialised in the formal sector.· Fuelwood and other local timber fellings are directly linked to the estimated wood consumption of the population.
Wood Growth
Considering the short period of the outlook (20 years), wood stock estimates per hectare and annual increment parameters are kept unchanged during the whole scenario period (1990-2010). Wood production changes are linked mainly with forest area changes.
The forest resources parameters
The data base line of the forest resources situation is generally 1990. However, data are called parameters as many are standardised or estimated. The parameters needed to feed the model for each country are as follow:
· The area (in ha):* total country area;
* total forest and wooded land;
* natural exploitable forests
* plantation forests (man-made forests);
* forest conservation area;
* low productive/open forests
* arable lands;
* commercial tree crops (rubber, coconuts);
* other/range/barren lands.· The commercial growing stock (in m3/ha) related to:
* natural exploitable forests;
* plantation forests (man-made forests).· The mean annual increment (in m3/year/ha) related to:
* natural exploitable forests;
* plantation forests (man-made forests);
* low productive and open forests;
* commercial tree crops (rubber, coconuts);
* trees growing on arable lands.· Fellings (in m3/year) expressed as:
* Industrial roundwood removals (m3/year);
* Fuelwood fellings (m3/inh/year).
The parameters influencing projected situation
The future evolution of forest resources and wood supply will depend upon the changes in the following main parameters:
· the deforestation factor - (% of loss of natural exploitable forests and other forests and wooded lands area per year);· the plantation forests programme (thousands ha per year);
· the removals of industrial roundwood - (thousands m3/year).
· the conservation areas (totally protected);
· the commercial tree crop;
· the range conversion factor is the estimated percentage of the deforested lands turned into range lands;
· the increase of other/range/barren lands in relation to lands made available from deforestation.
The definitions of these parameters are given in section 3.
2.4.1 Information sources
2.4.2 Country profiles and sub-regional analysis
Only one projection, considered a likely trajectory, has been developed which provides in 5-year periods up to the year 2010 a possible outlook on the following:
· the forested areas in terms of productive and non productive zones being natural or planted forests;· the commercial growing stock from natural and planted forests;
· the annual roundwood felling broken down into industrial roundwood and fuelwood;
· the annual wood production potential (increment) of roundwood broken down by sources (production forests, other forests, non forested lands).
Information related to country forest resources has been collected at FAO headquarters principally from published and raw information under the Forest Resources Assessment (FRA) programme. The first draft of the study containing the FAO information and the consequent scenario was sent to the countries through the outlook study focal points for comments and validation. Relevant notes and remarks have therefore been integrated. The revised projection for forest resources and roundwood supply are considered by the author to be the most likely. This procedure replaces the possibility of first obtaining first hand figures from the countries themselves through questionnaires.
The information related to national forest areas is mainly based on the Forest Resources Assessment 1990 - FAO Forestry paper 112, 124, 127. Arable land areas are from FAO Production Yearbook 1994. Information related to exploitable natural forest and plantation forests areas are from country sources collected at FAO and the same source is used for the FAO - GFSS (Global Fibre Supply Study); however, some figures provided were adapted in accordance with the specific study definitions. Figures related to wood growth - growing stock and increment - do not often exist at national level and are extrapolated from similar situations.
Figures related to industrial wood removals are taken from country documents or recent reliable studies. Fuelwood production figures are from the FAO Yearbook of Forest Products and from the Review of Wood Energy Data in member countries of the Regional Wood Energy Development Project (RWEDP) (March 1997).
Table I.2 provides the summary of the values given to each parameter for each country.
For each country, a forest resources profile has been developed. Each profile contains the following analysis: (a) the country's forest situation: describes the state of the forest (tropical or temperate), forest distribution, main problems, management level with logging intensity, plantation forests programme, rural forestry, conservation forest activity; (b) Forestry sector development: gives a short analysis of the present forest policy, strategy and legal framework related to forest development; and (c) "projected development": explains the reasoning and level of the parameters used to build up the base scenario. Some comments on the results are provided.
The countries are grouped as outlined earlier and country base scenarios are aggregated into sub-regional scenarios. A short analysis accompanies each respective sub-regional scenario. This analysis discusses three points: (1) the overall sub-regional forest resources status; (2) the sub-regional sectoral perspectives; and (3) wood production potential and fellings in the sub-region. Countries composing the sub-regions are compared from the point of view of forest resources areas, annual roundwood fellings and increment.
The 24 country profiles and their projections and the 5 sub-regional analyses are given in Part II.
