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3. FUTURE PROSPECTS


3.1 Assessment of Future supply and Demand for forest products and Services
3.2 Future Development and Development Objectives
3.3 Implications of Scenario

3.1 Assessment of Future supply and Demand for forest products and Services

Forests no longer remain confined to only provide timber and fire wood to the people in the jet set modern age. The natural functions of forests in form of environmental services far outnumber the valuable economic goods which are limited comparatively. There is global concern on both goods and services from forest since the future of humanity depends on how we utilise and conserve the forest now. Throughout the world life-threatening environmental issues have surfaced and therefore the need for forest conservation acknowledged universally with unanimity

The growth of population is a phenomena of common concern throughout. But the burgeoning increase of population in India has been threatening and rate of growth cannot he sustained by available environmental resources. India's population is 846.3 million, according to the 1991 Census, and increasing every year by 2.11%. The country's population would exceed one billion by the turn of the century and reach 1,170 million in 2011 (Srinivas, 1996): Consequently in 2011 the population density would live in rural and 408 million in urban areas. Estimates on rural poverty show that about 27.5% of the citizens live below the poverty line. If they have limited purchasing power, many depend, for their cooking and heating requirements, on biomass gathered painstakingly from forests or other public lands. If 60% of such people have access to forest lands, their number would approximate to 128 million (762 x 0.28 x 0.6 million). This represents an average incidence of 206 persons per sq. km. of forest, assuming that the extent of forests in the country stabilise at 62 Mha. The entire forest estate is unlikely to be uniformly impacted because of poor accessibility of some areas, excessive degradation etc. If roughly two-thirds of the forests estate is assumed to be so impacted, the intensity of population pressure on the accessible resource (41.5 Mha) would be 308 persons per sq. km. Inventories of forests conducted by the Forest Survey of India (FSI) show that already over 75 % of the forest in the country are devoid of established natural regeneration. The results of high population pressure on forests for fuel wood alone can be visualised easily.

Food production has increased from 51 million tonnes (MT) to 176.2 MT during the period 1951-1991 recording a 245% growth (Land use Statistics Table XI). The increase in food production in the preceding decades has come from an addition to the net area sown, improved infrastructure and inputs. Future increase will come solely from further modernisation of agriculture as no virgin land is likely to be available. With the introduction of modern agriculture technology, crop, yields will increase further. Annual per capita availability of food grains has increased from 144 kilograms (kgs) in 1951 to 183 Kgs in 1991. If food grain availability has to be maintained at this level in the year 2010 then the total production will have to go up to 214 MT per annum. The net sown area will continue to be between 140 and 142 Mha and the area devoted to food grain production will also be static at about 130 Mha. Looking at the past trends of production of food grains the yield will be higher than 1,700 Kgs per hectare in 2010. Consequently the extent of land required to produce 214 MT of food will be only 125 Mha. Therefore, in an ideal situation about 5 Mha agriculture lands may be expected to be released for cultivation of long-rotation tree crops. This will call for suitable technological packages and guidance being made available, good market forecasts and the ability of the forest departments to create conditions conducive for the farmer to switch over to tree farming. With proper technical guidance, infrastructure, policy support and incentives it is likely that about 5-10 Mha of lands now under subsistence agriculture would be available for tree farming.

Table XXV - Land-Use Statistics (Area in Mha)

Land-Use Category

1950-51

1990-91

Net area sown

118.75

142.24

Forest(legal definition)

4048

67.99

Non-agriculture uses

9.36

21.22

Uncultivable waste

38.16

1966

Pasture

6.67

11.80

Miscellaneous tree crops

19.83

3.70

cultivable waste

22.94

15.01

Fallow land

28.12

23.40

Total reporting area

284.32

305.02

Source: Ministry of Agriculture, 1994.

Forest cover assessment carried out by FSI in 1995 shows that the total forest cover in the country is 63.96 Mha. Dense forest of more than 40%, crown cover 29%, are 29.93 MHA in extent. Mangrove forests account for 0.45 million hectares. The total standing growing stock has been estimated to be 4,740.9 million in [MMS1] or 74.42 in per hectare. This growing stock is contributing an annual increment of assessment is that it does not indicate the growing stock on the basis of the density of the forest cover. Nearly 4.5% of geographical area of the country in under national parks and sanctuaries. The working plan prescriptions in respect of timber harvesting is officially suspended in these areas. In many states ban has been imposed on green felling (principal among them are Karnataka Uttar Pradesh and Orissa). Working plans have not been prepared/revised for many forest tracts in many states for want of adequate machinery. Excluding 4.6 Mha under wildlife management and 5 Mha of inaccessible areas where the costs of the timber extraction would be high, the extent of dense forest which have a potential to produce timber is 28.97 Mha. Studies have shown that annual increment of forests, irrespective of type, is about 5 m3 per hectare. Allowing a wide margin for risk of over-felling, failure of regeneration etc. the annual allowable cut can be reckoned as 2 in per hectare. Therefore, the potential production of the country's forest could be 59 million m3 per annum. It is clear that with improvement in the management of the forests it will be possible to meet the current demand. This is not at the cost of wildlife or biodiversity, as such areas could be excluded from commercial timber operations.

No reliable estimates are available of timber requirements for house building, furniture, agriculture implements, handicrafts, pulp, paper and other industry. While the requirements of Industry can be worked out from the installed capacity, it is not easy to do so in respect of other important consumers of timber. A study under the ongoing National Forestry Action Plan (NFAP) exercise commissioned by the MOEF has estimated the demand for industrial timbers as 56.67 million M3 (1994). The projections for the years 2000 and 2015 are 50.46 and 136.98 million M3, respectively. An inter-ministerial working group on wood substitution set up by the MOEF in 1985 has estimated the demand of timber for industrial and other usage, up to the year 2000. This has been projected in the figures further to year 2010 by Vedant of the Ministry (Table XXVI) - it may be noted that these projections differ somewhat from those of the NFAP exercise.

Table XXVI - Demand of Timber (Million m³)

Item of consumption

1985

2000

2010

1. Packaging

2.49

4.08

5.51

2. Railways

0.26

0.26

0.26

3. Agriculture implements

3.80

3.80

3.80

4. Matchwood

0.68

1.42

2.45

5. Ply wood

0.60

0.75

0.88

6. Particle and Fibre Boards

0.10

0.16

0.20

7. Paper & Pulp

7.70

19.32

27.06

8. Sports Goods

0.003

0.10

0.12

9. Saw Milling Industry

13.40

22.94

37.53

10. Mining Industry

3.00

3.90

4.68

11. Furniture and Panelling

0.25

0.40

0.50

12. Construction Timber

3.00

3.50

4.00

Total

35.28

60.63

83.29

Source: MOEF (1986). Projections by Vedant, DIG, Forests, MOEF.

The term fuelwood demand is not well understood and is often used synonymously with availability and consumption. Demand is generally assumed to be the consumption of fuelwood at a given point of time. This consumption pattern is extrapolated to arrive at the future demand. Several estimates of fuelwood demand are available but vary widely. The difficulty in estimating the demand arises from the fact that substantial quantities of fuelwood are gathered by a very large number of people directly from forest outside the market system. Their numbers are estimated to be about three to four million (Agarwal, 1987) and actual numbers are probably many times greater. The gatherers do not bother to weigh fuelwood each time they return from the forest, leave alone keeping records. Those who collect it are poor and uneducated, mostly women, and, collect whatever is available. As such, biomass (plant matter) accounts for about 15% of energy used in the world and 38% in developing countries.

Fuelwood continues to be the main source of biomass energy in rural areas of India as other commercial sources of energy (coal, kerosene, gas and electricity) are either behind the reach of a large number of rural people or not easily available. Estimates of fuelwood demand in India for the year 2000 range from 97 MT to 330 MT (Sexena, 1997). One estimate of the current annual fuelwood consumption in the country is 201 MT or 563 million cubic metres (Rai, 1996) (using conversion factor of 2.8 cubic metres (m3) = 1 tonne). The per capita consumption is therefore 214 kgs per annum. Fifty one percent of the fuelwood consumed by households was supposed to come from forests while the rest came from non-forest sources. This assessment seems to be closer to reality. A wood-consumption study conducted by FSI in Hassan district of Karnataka found that dependence of rural households on forests for fuelwood was a function of the distance of the village from the forest (FSI, 1996). The study revealed that as distance of the village from the forest areas increased, alternative sources of energy became more important. Most tend to construct a leaner model of fuelwood consumption wherein given per capita consumption is multiplied with projected population increases to derive the expected future demand.

However, an important factor which influences fuelwood consumption is the income level of the household. As net incomes increases households prefer to replace fuelwood with cleaner modern commercial fuels. Therefore, as income rise the per capita fuelwood consumption is expected to fall. The obvious analogy is the replacement of starchy foods with protein diets. The exact correlation between rise in per capita income and the consequent fall in fuelwood consumption may be difficult to establish statistically, but is logical. A study of consumption of fuels in rural and urban households conducted by Tata Energy Research Institute (TERI) confirms this for the urban population. Such a clear trend is still not discernible in the case of households in rural areas (TERI, 1996). This can probably be attributed to low levels of awareness about the effects on smoke of health. Specific studies need to be commissioned by the MOEF to determine all the relevant factors that have a bearing on fuelwood consumption in the country and also a realistic assessment of woodfuel produced in the country.

According to an assessment 218 million m³ of fuelwood (out of 563 million m³) is collected from forests (39%) (Rai, 1996). This represents an average annual removal of 5.25 m3 per hectares as a mean that only 41.5 Mha of forests are subjected to fuelwood collections. FSI has estimated the likely silvicultural availability of fuelwood from forest on a sustainable basis as 87.6 million m³. New plantations created under the state plan schemes, centrally sponsored schemes and donor-assisted projects are estimated to contribute 4.1 m of fuelwood per annum. Thus the total sustainable productions of fuelwood from the countries natural forests and plantations is estimated to be 91.7 million m3 (2.35 m³/ha). It is clear that the country's forests are being exploited in excess of their regenerative capacity and sustainable production capacity for fuelwood alone, resulting in lack of natural regeneration of most species from the accessible forests in the country. This trend has been observed in all the forests areas where FSI has conducted inventories. The degradation caused by such over exploitation is seen in the form of some barren hills and some in the process of being barren all over the country's landscape.

Table XXVII - Estimated consumption of fuelwood, 1996

Year

Population (million)

Per capita fuelwood consumption (Kgs/Year)

Total fuelwood requirement million m3 (million tonnes)

1996

940

214

562 (201)

2000

1018

214

610 (218)

2010

1170

214

700 (250)

Source: Rai, 1996.

Forest fodder is an important product in India. The livestock census data show that in 1987 the cattle population of the country was 428.4 million. An increase of 46% has been recorded between 1941 and 1987 - an annual rate of the growth of 1.5% (Table - XIV). The greatest increase in the respect of pigs (143%) followed by goats (111%), buffaloes (77%), cows (26%) and sheep (17%). The cow population has increased very slowly whereas the goat population has increased rapidly. Goats are browsers and can survive better than cows and buffaloes in the countryside even where the quality of fodder has deteriorated. Mutton fetches a good price in the market and the animals can be culled at a shorter rotation. There is no religious prescription on the consumption of goat meat as in the case of beef. However it is different in NE states.

Table XXVIII - Livestock Population of India#

Category

Livestock Population (million)


1951

1961

1972

1982

1987 *

Cows

155.30

175.56

178.34

190.79

195.86

Buffaloes

43.35

51.21

57.34

69.00

76.76

Sheep

38.43

40.02

39.99

48.07

44.83

Goats

47.08

60.86

67.52

94.72

99.41

Horses and ponies

1.51

1.33

0.94

0.93

0.78

Pigs

4.42

5.18

6.90

9.58

10.76

Camels

0.63

0.90

1.11

1.03

--

Others

1.30

1.15

1.11

1.82

--

Total

292.02

336.21

353.34

415.94

428.40

Source: # Indian Council of Forestry Research and Education;
* Ministry of Agriculture

The use of tractors for ploughing, tilling and the transporting of harvest is becoming widespread in the countryside. Consequently the dependence on animal power for agriculture operations is decreasing. Even then in many areas dependence on draught animals for agricultural purposes will continue because of land tenurial system, land holding patterns and socio-economic status etc. The economically and socially depressed sections of the rural people now realized education as a means to move up the social ladder and enhance their status. Traditional occupation such as shepherding are reserved for only one member of the family-the youngest or the oldest-as the wages paid for these jobs are low. Young men prefer to learn special skills and seek employment opportunities in towns and cities where the same amount of the effort enables them to earn more. Families prefer to educate children so that they can earn more when they grow up.

The introduction of hybrid varieties of crops has also reduced significantly the quantity of hay and other crop residues produced. Thus, shortage of fodder for farm animals has increased. The religious ban on consumption of beef is not so stringent in the states of Karnataka, Kerala and Tamilnadu, in the South, the Kashmir region in the North, and some of the North Eastern states. All these factors have combined to make cattle rearing a difficult task. The number of cattle owned per agriculture family is gradually diminishing. In spite of these factors, the cattle population in the country is enormous. Large herds of scrub-cattle can even now be seen grazing freely in the country side although their numbers are decreasing.

Data on fodder requirement and its production from some of the known sources are available. The committee on fodder and grasses constituted by the Ministry of Environment and Forest (MOEF) in 1988 has estimated the fodder requirement in the country as 1,080 MT (dry weight). The supply of fodder from known sources (crop residue, hay, cultivated fodder etc.) has been put at 504 MT. The difference of 576 MT it is believed, comes from forests, common lands, pastures and other public lands. No attempts have so far been made to collect data on the number of cattle actually grazing in forests, the quantity of fodder and grasses utilized or the carrying the capacity of the forests for sustainable grazing. It is probable that about 40% of the cattle are able to access 41.5 Mha of forests for grazing. This represents a grazing intensity of 4.1 cattle heads per hectare and likely to increase to 5.6 per hectare in 2010 assuming the same rate of growth as in the preceding four decades (Table XXIX).

Table XXIX - Grazing intensity in forests (Cattle Population in million; Grazing intensity in cattle unit per hectare)

Year

Cattle Population

Grazing intensity

1988

429

4.1

2000

506

4.9

2010

581

5.6

Source: projection by Vedant 1997.

Dry grass yields from forests and other non-forest grazing lands are estimated to be 2 and 1.5 tonnes per hectare, respectively (Singh, 1994). If two-thirds of the forests areas are grazed the yield of dry grasses would be 83 MT. Working on our earlier assumption that 40% of the cattle (136 million) may be able to access the forests for grazing, the availability of fodder per cattle head would be about 1.7 Kg. per cattle head per day. This is far short of the maintenance intake of 3% of body weight as the minimum requirement (ICFRE, 1992). Most of the cattle that graze in the forest areas are scrub cattle which do not yield much milk and are also not useful as draught animals. Regulating their entry into forest areas through the imposition of a grazing fee has often been recommended by foresters and scientists. But implementation of such recommendations are fraught with difficulties as politicians do not support such measures. The conflict between conservers and consumers as well as cause and effect continues.

Castration of unproductive bulls and introduction of hybrid imported varieties of cattle with artificial insemination has also been suggested. This is a debatable issue as hybrid cattle require much nurturing, care and nourishment. In the absence of proper health care amenities for farm animals in the rural areas, experimental introduction of hybrid cattle has not made much headway in many parts of the country. Programmes for improving local breeds through cross-breeding and improving amenities for health care holds greater promise and is readily accepted by agriculturists. The role of the forest department (FD) in this is minimal. They can contribute in small manner by creating silvi-pastures, management of grasslands and pastures on scientific lines, and reseeding grasslands and pastures. But this is an area in which forest officers have no or little training or skills. Staff of the veterinary department concentrate on animal health care and, like foresters, do not have any skill for managing grasslands and pastures. Even the agriculture department does not have the necessary wherewithal for managing grasslands and pastures. Thus, forest as well as non-forest pastures and grasslands are in poor condition today.

Forests occupy space and space is under great stress in this growing world. Forest has to yield to surrender space to other competing agencies of development including human needs. There is a constant conflict for space from all sides and angles. It is not possible to indicate the future demand on forest land from several competing quarters even a guess would be totally wrong. But there is no, denying of the fact that there will be a lot of diversion of forest land for developmental projects, mining, rehabilitation and regularization of encroachments. Loss of forest is not comparable in terms of money gained instead. Thanks to the much disliked Forest Conservation Act 1980 for which the pace of diversion of forest land for non-forestry purposes is restricted and reduced. In case of diversion of forest there is a provision of compensatory afforestation of equivalent land area. Mother's breast milk is the best for child and it cannot be replaced or substituted. So also natural forest cannot be replaced or recreated with all its biodiversity whatsoever one can do for compensatory afforestation. A loss of natural forest area is a loss for ever. The progress of compensatory afforestation is quite tardy. It has been observed that the interest of the states is much more for diversion of forest land rather than in compensatory afforestation. A very strong political and bureaucratic commitment and will is required in this regard to save the dwindling forest. To ensure availability of services from forest in totality adequate forest and tree cover need to be maintained. The responsibility is not only of government but also of the civil society as a whole.

3.2 Future Development and Development Objectives

One thing is constant in the world that is change. This change is a continuous process and is progressive. In a developing country like India development encompasses several wide ranging issues. The prime aim of development for a welfare country is peoples welfare and for public good. In fact every country throughout the world strive towards this objectives and so also all the countries in the region. Forest is a part of the environment, Development and environment both are inseparable. Man lives in a given environment and strives to improve his lot by certain actions within it in the name of development. Every act of man affects environment. People's well being is the ultimate goal of all governments and all development polices and programmes are usually tailored to cater to that objective. While everything is changing land remains and will continue to remain limited. Growth demands space and forest is the only area having some geographic spread. This perhaps has been also the cause of liberal use of its area and extent. The increasing need and influence of other sectors has made forestry sector a diminishing entity.

In the economic terms and financial accounting system externalities (social costs) are not considered very often. Services from forest such as soil protection and productivity, regeneration of water and improvement of hydrological cycle, all forest products other than timber and bamboo, carbon sink and bio-diversity have immense value of far reaching consequences. Such benefits flowing from forests are not only local but regional and global. Large scale industrialisation does not mean development if it does not pay due attention to environment. Further development has to have social content in every sphere. The material progress has to be blended with old values, ethics and morals. Earlier no one talked of environment in development projects and activities. The craze for development subdued the simmering after effects or fallout of those activities which do not seem visible initially in the beginning. Forests destroyed to make way for development and industries which later polluted air and water causing several difficulties and problems to the people in general. In this regard the examples of devastating effect of indiscriminate development are not wanting. Government have taken care against such reckless development and ruthless predatory exploitation of forest (natural resources) and environment. Otherwise the cure becomes much more cost prohibitive than the disease itself. Realisation has come for the old saying "Prevention is better than cure".

Visualising the scenario for the future as well as for the incoming century government of India with its age-old wisdom is the first country to make constitutional provision for protection and improvement of environment in 1976. Forestry and wildlife are in the concurrent list of the Constitution of India. Ministry of Environment and Forests is the nodal administrative structure at central level for planning, promotion and co-ordination. Ministry is responsible for policy formulation, monitoring, and co-ordination with Government and International agencies. Environmental impact assessment of developmental works, prevention and control pollution, research education and training and providing financial and technical assistance to states, NGO's and others through various schemes are also the responsibility of the Ministry. Conservation and development efforts have been facilitated by several legislative and administrative instruments. Government of India through such measures have tried to ensure "Development without Destruction". The 1988 national forest policy is a landmark instrument with wide ranging coverage and focusing on conservation efforts in Indian Forestry coupled with sustainable utilisation and peoples participation. The National Conservation strategy was adopted in 1992 laying down stress on environmental considerations. The principal aim of National Forest Policy (1988) is to ensure environmental stability and maintenance of ecological balance including atmospheric equilibrium which are vital for sustenance of all life forms - human, animal and plant. The derivation of direct economic benefit must be subordinate to this principal aim. The policy lays down the overriding considerations for the environmental concerns rather than commercial interests. Accordingly the conservation of bio-diversity, genetic resources, species, their habitats and production of wood and NWFP for local consumption and use as well as for meeting the industrial requirements on long term basis are important factors determining sustainability. India has unique and diverse forest ecosystems some being fragile and critical needing special treatment.

Most of the India's Forests being under the control of government are managed on scientific lines with detailed field work, inventory and mapping with due regard to principles of sustainable development. The policy document stipulates that holders of customary rights and concessions in forest areas should be motivated and encouraged to identify themselves with protection and development of forest from which they have been deriving benefits. The 1st June 1990 circular reflects governments commitment to manage the forests through participatory process which envisages active involvement of village communities, specially women and weaker sections of society and voluntary agencies. Rights and concession of the tribals and other poor living within and near forests are protected and their bonafide domestic requirements are regarded as first charge on forest produce. In spite of general denudation of forests and lack of regeneration there has been at places instances of good regeneration in natural forest by changing forest management practices involving more effective collaboration between government forest staff and rural communities having willingly controlled their access to natural forest for grazing and cutting. This is an emergence of new approach hitherto not given adequate attention and importance. It is an integrated approach for ecological security and stability.

Adoption of participatory forest management with communities providing them incentives and support (both technical and financial) has wide acceptance now and is also more cost effective. This philosophy of forest development is a silent social revolution and has considerably reduced general degradation of the commons. People have responded to the cry of forest "first care and then share" and thereby people themselves have developed a stake in forest protection. This process has generated a sense of belonging amongst people. They have voluntarily turned "from free user to regulated user of resources and from consumer to producer". Consequently forest management is done with a human face and for the people by harmonising various parameters of forest management. In a way it is liberalising and feminizing forestry. This has helped the forest department to feel oneness with society with a concept of social justice and distribution of rights.

Joint forest management - Forestry in the country is in transition from a statist to a more people centred approach. The country's forest policy today talks in terms of empowering and involving people in managing forest locally. That participatory approach is a viable alternative to the traditional methods of forest management became known when the FD in the state of West Bengal tried this concept for the first time in the early 1970's in Arabari. It started as an attempt by a harassed FD, unable to prevent the destruction of forests in spite of strenuous efforts at policing, to involve people in policing forests in return for a share in the harvest. In general people were depending on forest and degradation of forest continue with way flow of produce. People were only concerned with their rights and concessions without bothering for their responsibilities. In the process poverty became endemic to degraded forest areas. People were persuaded first to care and then manage the forest and share the benefit in shape of goods though the services and functions from the forest so protected was uniform for the entire community. Involving people in this collective endeavour has in cost-effective and very radical in approach.

Protection alone enhances the bio-diversity of the area and thereafter helps in equitable sharing of biotic wealth. The novel attempt had salutary and significant effect on forest and local society as well and made them more aware and concerned for the benefits of forests and optimal use of resources not only for own generation but for generations to follow. Rules of self-abnegation were framed by the local communities leading to the laying of the foundation for collective efforts at regenerating degraded forests. Such efforts both of local governments and village communities have been also taking place in other parts of the country. In one instance a villager narrated to the author about their case as "Necessity is the mother of inventions" resulting in extensive degraded forest area regenerating by their voluntary protection. People realised the ecological advantages by their action contrary to legacy of ecological exploitation and generated ecological movement which contributed more for survival of poor. The causative factors of forest degradation were taken care of by use of this renewable resource with restraint care and caution. The success that these efforts met with led the MOEF to formulate a strategy to involve people in collaborating with the FD to regenerate forests and get a share of the benefits (harvest) from the forests so managed.

In India participating in forest management is called Joint Forest Management (JFM). JFM involves the collaboration of the FD, the people of the area and a local non-governmental organisation (NGO) to serve as an interface between people and government. From this modest beginning, JFM has acquired the shape of a movement with over 15,000 village forests committees (VFCs) managing in collaboration with FDs over 2.0 Mha. of degraded forests. The experience in the last few years has shown that many complex issues of social, political, administrative, legal and silvicultural are emerging and require to be addressed. This mechanism for enhancing forest area both within and outside legal limits of forest has a great future because of recognition of its utility and universal acceptance. The trust of the people has to be sustained to continue the process towards prosperity. It can be emphatically foretold that the coverage under JFM and involvement of people will increase several tunes of what it is now since the awareness for forest conservation is gaining ground at the base in rural India nearer the forest. The return from forest varies widely in the country depending on the locality and species occurring therein.

The practice of forest working from the beginning has a scientific base in which both present and future needs were considered without sacrificing the biodiversity existing in the local forest types. The imbalance crept in when the demand surpassed the supply impinging and impairing the existence of the very forest. Wood alternatives and substitutes have been found and more and more research is on to save the overuse of wood and wood products. Both the aspects of supply and demand have to he tackled to conserve the natural forest in its pristine glory. Conservation encompasses both protection and management. Legal and Administrative framework have to be strengthened with proper human resource development and with a paradigm shift in their approach to various problems of forest management. Modern tools like GIS (Geographical Information System) and MIS (Management Information System) have to be used to hasten the process of building up of lost ground in forest management. The forest management has to be "Technically sound, Environmentally compatible, Commercially viable and Socially acceptable" and its ultimate aim and approach has to be humane and people oriented. That would include both short term and long term gains.

Natural forest extent may not remain static in view of growing population and cattle pressure and its consequential welfare needs and demands which include several developmental projects mining etc. Shifting cultivation, though likely to reduce, will have its toll on the forest land. The reality of the projection ultimately means less of forest and more per capita demand. That being the case efforts have to be made for enhancing forest productivity with adequate research supports. The natural regeneration in the forest can be supplemented with artificial regeneration wherever necessary to maintain the forest stocking to the optimal state. Timber harvesting from forests in India is linked to rural employment and economics. However, the importance of remote and inaccessible forests tracts as a source of timber will diminish considerably. Plantations will gain importance as a source of all woody raw material in the 21st century. The NGO activists have contributed in no small measure to this change. But there will still be some tracts of natural forests from where it will be necessary to manage forest scientifically and to extract timbers of selected species or dimensions. The returns from logging of such areas would be high and would cost sufficiently low to make harvesting of natural forests competitive with those of the plantation industry.

If timber has to increasingly come from plantations there would be a need to reappraise policies regarding the proportion of natural forests to plantation. An important change that has been seen in the developed West is the realisation by activist NGOs that environmental amenity value of forests can be maintained even when timber harvesting is continued in old growth forests. Similarly industries and forestry professionals are recognizing the need to modify harvesting practices so as to reduce its adverse impacts. The extent and quality of the forest cover a country can maintain is linked to the biotic pressures it is subjected to. It is expected that forest cover in most developing economies will continue to diminish till they are able to bring down the rates of population growth to manageable levels, develop their economies and create avenues for alternative sources of employment for people who now derive their livelihood from forests and forestry. When this happens the forest cover will cease to decline further. But the threshold levels at which the U-turn will take place will be different for different countries. Even in the country different states will have different area coverage in forest because of their geographical location, population and development status.

Assuming an end of deforestation or forest degradation and continuation of afforestation/reforestation/agro-forestry activities at the rate of one million hectares per year, forest resources, by 2010 AD, could be somewhat like this:

- Area of natural forests

50 Million ha.

-Protected areas

15 million ha.

-Area with production potential

30 million ha.

-Area of forest plantation

40 million ha.

-Area under agro-forestry/homestead forests

8 to 10 million ha.

If a sustainable development scenario with effective protection of existing forests and increased investment in creating new-manmade forests is followed, India can avert the developing crisis and take a growth path in forestry. Even if the productivity of existing plantations (which is about 4 cu.m./ha/Yr.) is increased to a level of 10 cu.m./ha/yr. (i.e. the lower limit to be qualified as fast growing), it should he able to produce about 500 million cu.m. from Plantations alone.

Implications of Projected Outlook - The supply/demand situation and resulting changes have several implications affecting: investment, skill needs, employment, income, government revenue, product substitution and diversification, product distribution, new entrepreneurial activities, value addition, operational efficiency, community welfare, environmental conservation, trade, prices and more importantly institutions and institutional arrangements.

Afforestation - It is simply clear from the foregoing discussions that India's forests are being exploited in excess of their sustainable productive capacity. This is in spite of the fact that the country has increased the pace of its reforestation programme in recent years. Between 1951 and 1997 the country has reforested 21.78 Mha of degraded forest and other public lands at a cumulative cost of Rs. 68,842.8 million (approximately US $ 1.9 billion) as per details in Table-XXX.

Table XXX - Progress of reforestation in the country

Plan period

Area reforested (Mha)

Cumulative

Expenditure incurred (Rs. million)

Cumulative

First plan (1951-1956)

0.05

0.05

12.8

12.8

Second plan (1956-1961)

0.31

0.36

68.6

81.4

Third plan (1961-1966)

0.58

0.94

211.3

292.7

Annual Plans (1966-1969)

0.45

1.39

230.2

522.9

Fourth plan (1969-1974)

0.71

2.11

443.4

966.3

Fifth plan (1974-1979)

1.22

3.33

1,072.8

2,039.1

Annual Plans (1979-1980)

0.22

2.55

371.0

2,410.1

Sixth plan (1980-1985)

4.65

7,20

9,260.1

11,670.2

Seventh Plan (1985-1990)

8.86

16.06

25,868.4

35,128.6

Annual plan (1990-1991)

0.75

16.81

5,999.5

41,128.1

Annual plan (1991-1992)

1.15

17.96

7,701.3

41,898.4

Eighth plan (1992-1997)

3.82

21.78

26,944.4

68,842.2

Source: MOEF # Provisional

Afforestation is very labour intensive operation and it is estimated that about 200 to 300 mandays are generated for plantation of one ha. In addition a sizeable employment is generated in collection, processing and marketing of NWFP. Reforestation on this scale is probably the largest effort undertaken by the forest service of any country in the Asia-Pacific region. Productivity of these plantation has, however been an issue on an extensive debate. The choice of species has often been pointed out by the critics to be inappropriate to the condition of soil, climate or the requirements of the local people. This is attributed to be an important region for the poor productivity or the lack of enthusiasm on the part of the local people to protect or nurture the plantations. The people also suspect, often for justifiable reasons that a larger share of the final harvest will be taken away by the government to feed industry or the towns. A study of the out-turn of a plantation (of Eucalyptus hybrid) raised by the FD in Mysore district in Karnataka under the rural fuelwood plantation scheme found that only fourteen percent of the saplings planted had been survived up to the harvest stage (Vedant, 1989). A large number of trees had been harvested by the local communities illegally. The Final harvest was removed by the FD to a nearby town for supply at prices which were below the prevailing market rates. The study went on to show that selling the wood at the rates determined by the state government involved hidden subsidies. Although the study was limited in scope to one plantation, yet this is true of majority of plantations raised under schemes purported to meet rural fuelwood and fodder requirements. Social forestry, which included agro and farm forestry models, was conceived as a possible alternative for enhancing production of wood on farm bunds, roadsides, canal-banks, tank foreshores and other public lands or block planting. In all such plantations protection has been the main problem in spite of involvement of communities. A common responsibility is not individual responsibility and the casualty has been the plantations raised at huge cost and forest also. Moreover plantations have long gestation period and no substantial result can be obtained unless protection and care is taken for that length of time.

The concept of social forestry was mooted as a means of ensuring production of wood, fibres and other tree products, used by people, on their own lands. It was thought that a shift in emphasis to meeting people's requirements from private and community owned lands closer to their areas of habitation would help in reduction of pressure on natural forests. Conceptually social forestry meant for the people (community/village) by the people and for the people with support and assistance of forest department. NGOs acted as an interface and catalyst between the governed and the government. The implementation of projects translating these ideas into action began in early 1980s. India received substantial aid from international donor as well as aid agencies for launching social forestry projects in different parts of the country (Table-XXXI).

By the close of the 1990s most aid agencies had lost interest in supporting social forestry programmes, Evaluation of social forestry in the country revealed that choice of species did not take into account local factor such as soil, climate and preferences of the people. Forest Departments lacked sufficient machinery to carry out micro-planning at the grass-root level of the village. Difficulty in obtaining concurrence of local authorities for raising village wood lots or pastures was also encountered. Although the country has nearly 12 Mha of pastures and 40 Mha of non-forest lands classified as fallow and culturable wasteland, much of it is in degraded conditions. It was not possible to obtain these lands for planting under alternative use. Forest Department initially did not make any attempt to allow local institutions or communities to take over the execution of the physical work. This would have led to creation of local institutions and acquisition of skills to undertake and manage such projects. But subsequently at many places the local institutions and NGOs were involved in the process. The Forest Department initially viewed social forestry projects no differently from the normal forestry projects - as a means for increasing green cover in the respective states. Participatory approaches in forest management on the other hand have opened up the possibility of tackling issues like choice of species, sharing of final harvests, pricing of the produce and a host of other issues which Forest Department cannot alone handle.

Table XXXI - International assistance received for Social Forestry Projects

States

Project period

Expenditure Incurred (Rs. million)

Area covered (Hectares)

Uttar Pradesh

1979-80 to 1983-84

500.00

76,000

Maharastra

1982-83 to 1989-90

720.00

75,726

Andhra Pradesh

1983-84 to 1990-90

427.6

45,217

Bihar

1985-86 to 1991-92

486.00

53,375

Jammu & Kashmir and Haryana

1982-83 to 1990-91

1,061.90

186,281

West Bengal

1981-82 to 1990-91

640.00

242,578

Karnataka

1983-84 to 1991-92

852.10

53,351

Kerala

1984-85 to 1992-93

896.80

131,000

National Social Forestry Projects (UP, HP, Rajasthan, Gujrat)

1985-86 to 1992-93

6,981.08

1,198,742

The country has made significant progress in reforestation, yet the productivity of these man-made forest is suspected to be low. Production in the public sector suffers from many deficiencies, chief among which is related to price determination. Government intervention can mean that market forces cannot competitively decide the price for the forest produce. This is a result of the government's anxiety to avoid being seen as promoting elitist interests. Therefore, as a producer, the FD cannot get a fair return on its investments. Private sector investment is also driven away from this activity. Competition cuts out inefficiencies, brings in new technology and allows more efficient use of resources. In the absence of competition neither the consumer benefits nor does the sector. Initially the goods and services produced by the private entrepreneur may cost more than the consumer can afford. But this by itself will be attained at the price at which the market is able to consume all that is produced. Liberalisation of economy will also affect the management of forests in the country. Governments in the country would be unable to provide budgetary support for uneconomic activities in different sectors of the economy.

As long as fuelwood. fodder and timber continue to be subsidised there will be no incentive for the Forest Department to make large investment for its production. The subsidies on these will be inevitable and politically forced so long as the FD burdens itself with the responsibility of producing a commodity that can be easily and more efficiently produced by farmers and others. Therefore production of fuelwood, fodder and timber should be partially shifted from public sector to the private sector. This will be accompanied by a shift in production from natural forests to plantation forests This seems to be the only way of conserving the remaining native forests. Private plantations would also include individuals and institutions. In private, plantations can be raised with higher inputs for faster growth with a view of higher economic return. In some cases industries have invested large sums in research and extension and carrying out plantation work in the field. Adoption of "Tree Pass book" system and formulation of "Green Brigade" in schools are few examples in this direction. Thereby the green tree culture will be established throughout. As it is women have a great role in forestry and while adopting the aforesaid issue the case of gender has to be kept in view. But private sector involvement in production forestry is possible only if land ceiling laws are relaxed for enabling operationally viable holding size. Also, the policy of not giving degraded forest land for production forestry to the private sector needs to be revised considering overall scenario without being dogmatic and biased and without leaving the control over land by Government. Such a mechanism will enable private entrepreneur to generate more forest produce for every one, while regreening the barren landscape profitably. The delay in such a broad based pragmatic decision may not be appropriate for forest conservation in the long run. Out of country's degraded forest land, the request of such captive plantation will be very little. Why should not this be given a fair trial for a few years and observe the outcome rather than a stubborn attitude of "Touch me Not"?

The decision-making processes in the forestry field in the country are not keeping pace with changing forest scenario. In spite of the availability of modern tools such as remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIS) and management information systems (MIS), Forest Departments use archaic and time-consuming decision-making systems for management prescriptions. Lately many foresters have shown a greater inclination to specialise and use GIS, remote sensing and MIS in their profession. Yet the number of foresters specialising in these disciplines is very small and insufficient for the magnitude of the tasks ahead. It will be necessary to induct professional GIS, MIS and remote sensing specialists into the Forest Department. Foresters have so far kept the forest service as a closed house where entry is restricted to people selected from a narrow range of traditional disciplines. Forestry training institutions in the country train foresters to be generalists.

Forestry is today highly specialised requiring new tools and skills, not included in the training curricula at the in-service training institutions. What forestry in India requires today is a cadre of highly motivated specialists in nursery, seed production, silviculture, wildlife biology, microbiology biodiversity, tree breeders, genetics and genetics engineering, ecologists, GIS, MIS, remote sensing, communications, human resource development, forest pathology and a host of other disciplines. Similar would be the case in wildlife management including Zoos. Lateral entry of professionals will enrich the professional content of the work of the forester and help the service regain confidence of the people. The modern demand from the forest service is to be more responsive, more open and transparent, more sympathetic, more accommodative and to keep people in the centre stage of all activities. Accordingly training curricula should include relevant subjects as per demands of changing times. Thereby the forester being the trustee of a resource can gain the trust and confidence of the people and the government.

3.3 Implications of Scenario

In view of the special conditions prevailing in Indian Forestry Scenario, specific criteria and indicators (C&I) have to the ascertained for each type of forests. Due to rich biodiversity and multitude of variations one set of C&I for the whole country will be irrelevant and misleading. Biodiversity is an important source of rebuilding ecological balance and sustainability in agriculture production and our own survival. For sustainable forest development the broad guiding principles are the forest resource base, continuity of flow, environmental control, socio-economic efforts and institutional framework.

It is now generally recognised that forest management needs to become increasingly effective in adapting to local ecological and socio-economic conditions and demands. This is reflected in the current debate on criteria and indicators (C&I) to measure the effect of management practices on the sustainability of forests. Even if national governments, in consonance with international agreements, impose limits within which forest management could function, decisions on product optimisation and the degree to which forest systems can be modified from their natural state will still have to be made by local stake holders. The definition of sustainable forestry will vary greatly over space and time as society's needs and perceptions evolve. Sustainability of forest connotes maintaining or enhancing the contribution of forests to human well being, both of the present and future generations without compromising the integrity of the ecosystem, that is, their resilience, function and biological diversity. The objective of research on C&I is to identify key components that can be measured either quantitatively or qualitatively on the ground. There is increasing recognition that foresters must adapt their management practices to satisfy the people's changing needs for forest goods and services. This requires sensitive indicators to measure changes in the attributes of forests and the ability to predict the responses of the ecosystem to modified management regimes. The C&I debate is leading forestry professionals to rethink the meaning of environmental sustainability so as to explicitly identify the various elements that collectively comprise sustainability. Some of the key components have been discussed at other places.

The competition for land has always been intense. The country's first policy on forests, enunciated by Voelker in 1884, stated that foresters would have to give up their claim to lands on which agriculture was more profitable. A period of aggressive settlement of land for enhancing food production saw a rapid pace of extension of agriculture into virgin areas. Forests have been cleared indiscriminately into virgin area, for rehabilitation and development of infrastructure such as dams, irrigation, roads and industrial estate. Forestry professional's opposition to such indiscriminate diversion of forest land was decried unfortunately as a manifestation of their anti-development orientation, though foresters have been true to their profession and committed to professional integrity, training and mindset. In the three decades between 1951 and 1980, 4.328 million ha. of forests were diverted for the following purposes:

Agricultural activity

2.623 million ha.

Submerged under reservoirs

0.502 million ha.

Industrial townships

0.134 million ha.

Road/rail routes

0.061 million ha.

Miscellaneous

1.008 million ha.

Total

4.328 million ha.

Thereafter from 1981 to June 1996, 0.42 million ha have been diverted to various development works including mining and regularization of encroachments. Political parties in their eagerness to pursue 'vote bank' politics and appease commercial lobbies followed policies that had deleterious effects on forests in the country.

The Forest (Conservation) Act passed into law in 1980 now requires the state governments to take prior permission of the Central government before diverting forest lands for non-forestry purpose. But in spite of the new law about 0.8-1.0 Mha of forest land is under illegal occupation (encroachment) by cultivators and settlers which is expected to intensify further, Forestry will inevitably have to be satisfied with remnant marginal lands with poor soil and nutrient regimes. On the brighter side it is noted that forest plantations in the tropical and subtropical regions can succeed even on lands of intermediate productivity on which agriculture would not be profitable. One of the questions that is expected to be asked repeatedly in the future is 'How much forests, natural or otherwise, do we need to maintain essential environmental services'. Although there are no answers as yet, it is generally held that a smaller proportion of natural forests kept under rigid protection would serve the purpose of bio-diversity conservation while a larger part of forests would have to be in the economic intervention zone to meet the essential needs of the society in general.

The Export - Import policy 1992-97 has provided stability within a dynamic framework enabling periodic harmonisation of national priorities with global change. With the long term exim policy providing a stable policy matrix, advances have been made in restructuring the economy and the consequent changes that are possible and desirable towards the objectives of trade liberalisation. The Exim Policy 1992-97 is a land mark in India's trade policy regime ushering in a new environment through major trade policy reforms. Exim policy restricts imports and exports of certain specified items. Panels, certain types of paper and paper products, boards, shavings, chips, particles, saw dust and other wastes of wood, certain wood and wood articles etc., are restricted for import. Import and Export of plants, their products and derivatives, some wildlife and their parts are subject to the provisions of Convention on International Trade of Endangered Species of Wild Flora and Fauna (CITES). Economic pressure at times are very intense but the fact that Trade and Environment are mutually supportive should not be lost sight of.

Marketing and Trade - Forest products do not figure prominently in India's international trade. There has hardly been any export in recent past and imports were mainly pulp paper products and logs. Production has been directed essentially at domestic market, with consumption limited to what has been produced. Domestic market of forest products in India is a large, even though considerable exchange and utilization of forest products takes place outside market. Scarcity of wood has caused rise in its prices at a rate of 9 to 13.5% per annum since 1982 as compared to annual price increase of rice at 7.5%, wheat 7.0% oilseeds 9.5% for the same period. As per FAO report on Forest Product Prices 1995, the increase in prices of wood in main producer countries like USA, Canada and Malaysia was from 3.9 to 8.3% per annum which was much lower than Indian trend.

India's export of wood products has been minimal. Small quantities of sawnwoods, veneer sheets, about 38,000 cu.m. of speciality plywood and limited quantity of furniture (total value about US$ 25 million) were exported from India in 1994. In terms of export trade performance of NWFPs was considerably higher. Main items exported were edible products, crude drugs and medicinal plants, species, essential oils, gums and resins.

India has imposed complete ban on export of logs and restrictions on interstate movement of special quality wood e.g. rosewood, red sanders and sandal wood. While India cannot compete in bulk markets for forest Products abroad it can capture niche markets for forest based consumer goods. Substantial foreign exchange may be earned through export of designer furniture, furniture components, wood carvings, handicrafts, fancy articles, bamboo and rattan works, spices, aroma chemicals pharmaceutical and perfumes. Considering the scarcity of wood raw materials, and to ease the situation in processing industry India relaxed trade barriers and liberalized imports. Customs duty on logs and wood chips was substantially reduced from over 100% to 5% and 10% respectively.

Table XXXII - Important Import Tariffs for Forest Products (1993)

Raw Materials

Tariff (%)

Finished Goods

Tariff (%)

-Logs

5

Veneer sheets

30

-Sawnwood

15

Particle board

30

-Woodchips

10

Plywood and veneered Panels

40

Pulp

10

Newsprint

0-45*

Waste Paper

20

Other paper products

65

* Zero percent for papers, books and periodicals.

This policy has led to increased imports of timber and forest products. India's import bill for these items increased from about US$ 195 million in 1985 to US$ 277 million in 1994. In particular Roundwood imports rose from 27, 000 cu.m. valued at US $3.1 million in 1985 to 1.3 million cu.m. valued at US $ 937.4 million in 1990. Import of round timber in 1994 was 285.000 cu.m. valued at US $ 48.1 million. Marketing system for forest products is weak in India, particularly so far production in informal sector in rural areas involving agroforestry products. NWFPs handicrafts, bamboo and rattan ware. The rural producer is often on a debt hosed relationship with middlemen, where he is denied a reasonable and remunerative price. The Tribal Cooperative Marketing Development Federation of India Limited (TRIFED) has provided a national network of procurement, processing and marketing of forest (and agricultural) products from tribal areas. It, has established some 5,000 single-window service centres in traditional tribal markets in rural areas of the country. But most rural producers are unable to avail of or have access to such facilities.

In any trade, investment to the required extent is necessary by which development can he ensured. Further in modern times trading has to be environment friendly for its own survival as well as its sustainability. In the liberalized trade policy scenario of the country a considerable amount of prudent decision making is required for overall growth of the sector.

Forest is no doubt nature's gift as a valuable resources, but it is not unending for ever. Any resource can not continue to provide services without adequate investment. The concept of unilateral utilisation of forest resource with no or little investment is undergoing change gradually. The mindset of all in this regard is slowly by transforming. There is dilemma in forest investment since no immediate return is obtainable from forest trees in tangible terms. Forest tree take long time to grow in nature even though it can be hastened marginally by human intervention. But in the long run the return from investment in forestry is more than realised in shape of both goods and services from forest. Evidently therefore the investment in forest in the country and in the states has been quite low. Of late some states have increased allocation to forestry sector up to 4-8% of state plan allocation. But the allocation in the centre is dismally low considering the contribution from forestry monetized and non-monetized, tangible and intangible. Certain allocation are made to allied sectors for forestry work but that is often diverted away from core forest sector work. It has to be forest sector allocation exclusively to utilise in forest operations both inside and outside forest area. In a way forest sector has been a neglected sector in spite of the recent attention to it from all quarters. Efforts have been made time and again to allocate more funds to forestry but it hardly got any satisfactory attention.

Forest Department is the core organisation to deal with all forestry and allied matters. But of late the job is distributed to very many agencies and departments whereas forest department is answerable for any lapse. It would be worthwhile to bring all those (from RD and NAEB) under one umbrella of forest department and make it more effective and strong. Evidently therefore there will be more fund flow to the organisation (FD) for which the Department would have to be accountable and answerable. In view of international recognition to forestry it may be that forest and wildlife is made a separate department or ministry in future. Having done that it is likely that forestry sector gets enough allocation and the investment becomes commensurate to its contribution.

Adequate investment will necessitate sufficient infrastructure, human resource development with due competence and proper responsive attitude and deployment of modern tools for conservation management and development of forests. Priority has to be given to need based research to make the department more open and transparent as well as accountable to all. While doing so the linkage has to be established with other land using and allied departments and research organisations with access to, biotechnology to make the Forest Department march and progress with time and gain the trust of all concerned. In all these a fact has to be acknowledged that forestry science has a longer time span for any visible result, unlike agriculture or any other sector.

Very often the foresters are subjected to skewed criticism critically for their anti-people stance. Unfortunately those critics have formed one-sided opinion from a distance with occasional forays into forest area and peripheral knowledge about the people living therein both tribal and non tribal and men and women. Such a view is improper and unjust. Rather factually foresters are represented in the last remotest village and have seen the ground reality from very close quarters. They are a disciplined lot and technically competent to manage forest themselves as experts in field work provided necessary legal and administrative support is extended by the authorities. But for their dedications and commitment the country's landscape would have been quite different, leave aside the consequential climate devastation and natural calamities. They are custodian and caretaker of about 1/5 - 1/4 land area of the country which is repository of very valuable treasure and are emotionally attached to it. Given the chance to exhibit their ability they can surpass many both administratively and technically. Even then the service has not been given its due in all aspects. Forestry professionals are record holders, conservers and protectors (defenders) of all forest land and technical managers of forest area for ultimate benefit of the countrymen. With such onerous duties they need adequate incentive and encouragement to attract the best talent India has and can produce in the younger generations. Such band of dedicated lot can certainly be given the responsibility of providing food, shelter and clothing to the millions of Indian peoples through Forestry enunciated in Forestry Principles (Rio-1992).

Earth is the only planet having life and our only home is this mother earth. Preserving forest and eco-system is preserving water (essence of life), and preserving human life. Let us not devastate forest today to repent tomorrow since future depends on the choices made today. It is said end of a tree is end of mankind. Living trees is more valuable than a dead tree. Forest is nature's gift and has to be nurtured for good of human kind.

Considering the above analysis it is a fact that by 2010 India may have a population of 1,170 million or more needing adequate food, shelter and clothing. All matters relating to human good and betterment have bearing on forest directly or indirectly. The demand of the growing millions will reduce and impoverish forest and goods produced in it but would also demand the services of forest on several counts for their survival. Therefore forest and forestry have a dual role to play in future as well as now for the well being of the society. Peoples need gets priority over immediate environmental need though healthy environment is essential for peoples welfare. With less land under forest after diversion to many pressing spheres of activity, the foresters with their innovation and dedication will have to produce more goods and services from reduced forest area with adequate support from research and modern tools of management. Further forestry has to be equally developed outside the forest land to meet the increasing demand of forest goods. There has been some remarkable efforts by industries, public and private sector companies and private individuals and communities in greening areas under their possession and control by which the material progress has been blended with old conservative values. It is a big support to government to maintain healthy environment. Challenges where there before the forest and the foresters. It increased but were overcome. With the march of time it would appear again and again. Hopefully it would be surmounted by the Indian people according to their spiritual dictates of "live and let live" and "global friendship/relationship" and there is every reason for this optimism and future hope.


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