1. CURRENT ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CONDITIONS

1.1. Vietnam: the country and its population
1.2. Economic aspects

1.1. Vietnam: the country and its population

Located at the eastern part of the Indochinese Peninsula, Vietnam is in the centre of South East Asia and a tropical country of the northern hemisphere. The country is bounded on its northern side by Chine, on its western side by Lao and Cambodia, and on its eastern and southern sides by the East Vietnam Sea. Its coastline extends over 3,260 km, between the following geographical coordinates:

Latitude: 8°02' - 23° 23' N
Longitude: 102°08' - 109°28' E.

Its territory comprises a total land mass of 330,991 square kilometres, surrounding at its eastern side by an immense area of waters. Its territorial waters including its 12 - nautical miles area and its 200 - mile exclusive economic zone account for one million sq. km.

The pattern of landuse¹ and its coverage read as follows:

¹ Where year is not specified, "around 1995" should be assumed (Editor).

Description	Area (in sq. km.)	Percentage
Total land area	330,991	100.00
1. Farmland	73,484	22.20
2. Forest land	96,412	29.12
3. Special landuse	11,177	3.38
4. Residential area	7,740	2.34
5. Lands not under use	142,172	42.96

The topography of the country is complex, carved with many mountains rivers high plateaux and plains of different sizes; nearly three-fourth of its lands are under mountains, hills and high plateaux and carved by a dense network of watercourses, among which the two biggest ones are the Red River and the Mekong.

The climatic conditions of the country bear the monsoon characteristics of South East Asia with: the prevailing North East and South East winds an average temperature of 24-27°C (the highest temperature being found only in southern provinces of the country), and an average annual rainfall of 1,500-2,500 mm falling very often exclusively in the local rainy season from May to October.

Population density in Vietnam is found to be the highest in South East Asia reaching up to 1,000 people per square kilometre in the Red River Delta (the average figure being 232 people per square kilometre). In 1995, the population size of Vietnam reached 74 million people, ranking second in South East Asia, seventh in Asia-Pacific Region and twelfth the world over.

According to statistics, the rate of population growth from 1989 to 1994 was 2.15%, causing an increase by 1,6 million people to happen at Vietnam annually 80% of this population are living in the countryside, and 75% of same are practising agriculture and forestry, living with lands and forests.

Assuming that the above mentioned situation is still going on more or less up to the year 2000, that from the years 2000-2005, the population growth rate will be 1.8%, and that from 2000-2010, the same will be 1.7%, the population of Vietnam will ranch: 83 million people in the year 2000, 87 million people in the year 2005, and 95 million people in the year 2010.

Rapid population growth has caused economic development to meet with difficulties in particular in dealing with social problems, in stabilizing and enhancing the living and educational standards of people, in providing employment opportunities to local people who are acutely suffering now from full- and part-time unemployment.

In spite of the fact that the Government has paid much attention to the running of a number of birth control programmes. The active female population affected by the way of thinking prevailing in the decades 50-70 of this century, in which birth control was not applied, has responded quite weakly, as a result the population growth rate in this country up to the year 2010 will slow down to only 1.6-1.7%.

1.2. Economic aspects

Referring to its GDP per person, Vietnam is regarded as a poor country. However, since 1986 when "dot moi"² at last came to this country, its economic recovery and development has been strongly accelerated. The main features of that economic development during the period 1986-1995 are: the commercial production of goods and commodities by all sectors of the national economy, and the functioning of a market economy macro-economically managed by the state following socialist principles. Ten years of "dot moi", the national economy has been developing at a quite high rate allowing the living standards of local people to improve the national income to increase not only to meet national outlays but also to promote further accumulation of capital. In spite of weaknesses, the recent economic and social crisis of the 50s is said to have gone.

² The "doi moi" philosophy encompasses the combination of policy and institutional adaptations associated with liberalization, opening up and reform. Its adoption is generally given credit for the spurt in economic performance of Vietnam in recent years (Editor).

This is quite apparent through an examination of GDPs During the period 1991-1995, the cumulative increase in GDP accounts for 48.3% with an average of 8.2% per year and annual increases described as follows: 6% in 1991, 8.6% in 1992, 8.1% in 1993, 8.8% in 1994 and about 9.5% in 1995.

A general description of the Vietnamese economic conditions in 1995 is given below:

Description		Unit	1995
1. Population size		Million people	74
1. GDP		Billion US$	20.26
	- Farm	"	5.58
	- Non-farm	"	6.10
	- Services	"	8.58
2. Increase in National Income		%	9.50
	- Farm	"	5.40
	- Non-farm	"	13.50
	- Services	"	17.00
3. Export Earnings		million US$	5,200
4. Imports		million US$	7,500
5. Food production (equivalent paddy)		million tons	27.5
6. Electric power generation		million KWH	14.7
7. GDP per person		US$	270
8. Population growth rate		%	2.0

Source: Yearbook 1995-SRV Central Statistical Office.

The contribution to GDP from farm industries (including those based on forests) amounted in 1994 to 35%, in 1995 to 28%. With the on-going process of industrialization and modernization of the national economy, that contribution to national GDP in the year 2005 will be only 20% and in the year 2010, it will be more or less the same as above.

Looking at the Forestry Sector, one can find that the forested land area of Vietnam amounts to 9.3 million hectares and its non-forested land area to 10 million hectares. Out of 9.3 million hectares of forests, there are 8.3 million hectares of natural forests, others being man-made ones. Based upon forest landuse, the forests of Vietnam are categorized into special-use forests, protection forests and production forests with their area being estimated as follows: Special-use forests: 0.9 million hectares; Protection forests: 3.5 million hectares; and Production forests: 4.9 million hectares (Source - Forest Inventory 1995.)

Main forest products and their values in 1995

Description		unit	Values/Amount in 1995
1. Values of forest products (at constant prices of 1989)		Million US$	132
	- Forest establishment and maintenance	"	32
	- Wood and non-wood products	"	98
	- Others	"	2
2. Amount of wood products		'000 m3	2,754
	- State-owned enterprises	"	770
	- Non state-owned enterprises	"	1,984

(Source: Year book 1995. SRV Central Statistical Office)

The contribution to GCP from the forestry sector remains very low. It means that the main contribution of the forestry sector to the national economy consists of benefits from the conservation of natural environment restrictions of timber exploitation, the network of wood and forest products working and processing industries being by now poorly developed.

Economic Development Projections towards the year 2010 in Vietnam

Description		(1995 base year)	2000	2010
1. Population (million people)		74	83	95
2. National GDP (in billion US$ at constant prices of 1994)		20.26	24.43	38
3. Contribution to National GDP in percent per sector:
	- Farm (including forests)	28	20	21
	- Non-farm	30	34	38
	- Services	42	46	41
4. Growth rate in percent per year:		9.5	9-10	8.8
	- Farm (including forests)	4.5	4.5-5	4.2
	- Non-farm	13.5	14-15	12
	- Services	11.2	12-13	8.9
5. GDP per person (nominal in US$)*		272	443	955
6. GDP per person (real) in US$		240	290	400

* The nominal increase equals 351 % and real increase 67% between 1995 and 2010.