5.1 Projected Requirements for Paper and Paperboard
5.2 Wood pulp
5.3 The Estimated Production of Reeds
5.4 Prediction on Output and Demand of Bagasse
5.5 The Prediction of Bamboo Resource and Pulp Outputs
5.6 Recycled Fibre (Waste Paper)
5.7 The Estimated Supply of Different Fibre Materials in 2010
5.8 The Estimated Supply of Different Fibre Material in 2010
5.9 Artificial Panel Industry
According to the process and rate of paper industry development since reform and the development of the national economy, it is estimated that the demand of paper and paperboard will be 34,000-36,000 thousand tons and will reach 45,000-50,000 thousand tons by 2000 and 2010 respectively.
According to consumption from 1979 to 1994, the compound annual increase was about 10.46% which is little less than the growth rate of GNP. From 1995 to 2000, the GNP growth rate is expected to maintain its 8-9% level, which will be little more than the growth of paper and paperboard requirement. Calculated at a 7% growth rate, the amount of demand would be 36,800 thousand tons. It could be also calculated to 36,570 tons by regression equation Y = 472.644 e 0.1004x at a 85% reliability level. The output of paper and paperboard will rise to 34,000 tons according to the state programme in 2000. The deficit will be met by imports from abroad. What follows are predictions on the supply of different types of pulp.
From 1991 to 1995, the annual average wood pulp output was about 1,764 thousand tons that is only 9.8% of total pulp production. The irrational structure of paper products resulted from shortage of wood pulp to make high class paper the production of which is less than the demand. By 2000, the demand of paper and paperboard will reach 34 million tons of which the proportion of wood pulp will be 25%. So the demand of wood pulp will be about 8 million tons. According to the assumption that 4 m3 timber converts into 1 ton of pulp, the consumption of timber will be 32 million m. By 2010, the demand of paper and paperboard will increase to 45 million tons and the proportion of wood pulp will be 33 % so that the need of wood pulp will be 14.85 million tons with consequent 59.4 million m3 timber consumption.
Following the annual area increment (1.4%) from 1985 to 1995, the estimated annual area increment will be 1.2% from 1995 to 2000 when the area of reeds will reach 541 thousand ha. The projected production of reeds in 2000 and 2010 is presented in table 24.
Table 24 - Prediction on Reed Production (103 tons)
|
|
Area of used base |
Output produced in the base |
Output produced in outside base |
Total output |
Supply for pulp |
|
1995 |
510 |
1,950 |
610 |
2,560 |
2,375 |
|
2000 |
540 |
2,624 |
650 |
3,274 |
2,783 |
|
2010 |
600 |
4,200 |
750 |
4,950 |
4,200 |
The main production areas of sugar are in Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Fujian, and Hainan provinces; their production is 90% of total production of China. From 2001 to 2010, the area and production of sugarcane will be 1,320 thousand ha and 83,000 thousand tons and the production of bagasse will be 9,500 thousand ton, 40% of which will be used in pulp production9.
Table 25 - Predicted outputs of bagasse in 2000 and 2010 (10s ha, 103 tons)
|
Year |
Sugarcane-growing area |
Output of Sugarcane |
Bagasse |
||
|
Total Output |
Used for pulp |
||||
|
Quantity |
% |
||||
|
2000 |
1,262 |
77,613 |
8,640 |
2,592 |
30 |
|
2010 |
1,320 |
83,000 |
9,500 |
3,800 |
40 |
Because the timber resource is inadequate, as the demand for artificial panels and paper increases, it is inevitable that the utilization of bamboo for panel and paper should increase. Since the 1990s, the improvement of low yield bamboo plantations has become the main thrust in the development of bamboo resources. During the National Ninth-five Year Plan (1995-2000), China forestry department plans to establish and improve bamboo plantations by an additional area of 1.933 thousand ha and the production of 10.207 million tons. According to a study by the Chinese Academy of Forestry, the predicted bamboo output and pulp is shown in Table 26.
Table 26 - Estimated Output of Bamboo and Bamboo Pulp in 2000 and 2010 (10s ha, 10s tons)
|
|
Bamboo area |
Standing stock |
Annual production |
Bamboo production used to make paper |
Stock volume |
|
2000 |
4,121 |
125,975 |
12,350 |
3,000 |
1,170 |
|
2010 |
4,640 |
186,000 |
18,230 |
4,460 |
1,741 |
However, it may be noted from Table 18 that since 1985, the share of bagasse used for pulp has not exceeded 16% of its total output. It may require policy incentives to raise this rapidly to 40% (editor).
The level of waste paper use in China is lower than the international level. In recent years, some technologies such as de-inking technology were introduced by coastal areas such as Linbou and Guangzhou etc. By 2000, many waste paper mills will be built and the total capacity is expected to reach 4-5 million tons. The consumption of waste paper will reach 11-12 million tons. {This suggests a much higher recovered fibre use than observed so far in China - Editor}.
The demand for paper and paperboard is 34 million tons and 1.36 million of it is newsprint. If it is assumed that the production of 1 tons paper and paperboard will consume 0.94 tons of pulp, then consumption of pulp will be 31.96 million tons in 2000. But the national capacity of pulp will only be 28.363 million tons. The balance of 3,579 thousand tons pulp needs import from other countries. Among them, imported wood pulp and waste paper will be 1 million tons respectively.
Table 27 - The Estimated Supply of Different Fibre Material in 2000 (10 tons)
|
|
Demand |
Supply |
Pulp output |
Percent of type of pulp (home production) |
|
Timber (103m3) |
32,000 |
26,000* |
5,800 |
20.45 |
|
Reeds |
2,723 |
2,723 |
1,089 |
3.84 |
|
Bagasse |
2,592 |
2,592 |
1,029 |
3.63 |
|
Bamboo |
3,600 |
3,600 |
1,404 |
4.95 |
|
the straw of Rice and wheat |
23,100 |
23,100 |
9,181 |
32.37 |
|
Waste hemp |
1,700 |
1,700 |
1,360 |
4.79 |
|
Waste paper |
11,000 |
10,000 |
8,000 |
28.26 |
|
Others |
1,300 |
1,300 |
500 |
1.67 |
* For timber there is a 6 million m3 deficit (about 19% of demand) while for other fibre, there is no shortfall except for waste paper (about 9%, 1 million tons).
The demand of paper and paperboard will be 45 million tons and the need of pulp will be 41.4 million tons. In order to improve the quality and structure of paper and paperboard, the proportion of wood pulp will be increased to 33% of total pulp. At the same time, the high techniques of purified and de-inking will be adopted and the consumption of wastepaper pulp will be increased.
Table 28 - The Estimated Supply of Different Fibre Materials in 2010 (103 tons)
|
|
Supply |
Output of pulp |
|
|
Quantity |
Percentage (%) |
||
|
Timber (103) |
47,000 |
13,160 |
33.01 |
|
Reeds |
4,300 |
1,720 |
4.32 |
|
Bagasse |
3,800 |
1,485 |
3.73 |
|
Bamboo |
4,500 |
1,760 |
4.42 |
|
Straw of rice and wheat |
20,000 |
7,900 |
19.83 |
|
Waste hemp and cotton |
1,800 |
1,260 |
3.16 |
|
Waster paper |
1,600 |
12,000 |
30.12 |
|
Others |
1,500 |
560 |
1.41 |
|
Total |
|
39,845 |
|
The manufacture of artificial panels using non-wood material started from the 1940s when some small mills were established with bagasse for panels in Shanghai and Suzhou. In the 1960s, some mills with the annual fibreboard production of 2,000 tons using cotton stalks were built in Henan and Zhejiang province. There has been rapid development in the use of non-wood fibre for artificial panels since 1980. The main areas of progress are four:
· Through scientific research, the panels production using non- wood fibre materials has been promoted rapidly. The technology and process of particleboard production using agriculture residuals as raw material were studied such as the utilization of straw of cotton, maize, rape, tobacco, sunflower, and sorghum. Many kinds of artificial panels with different physical and mechanical properties were produced and pilot experiments on the utilization of some non-wood fibre were conducted.· Artificial Panels Mills with annual production of 2,000-15,000 m3 were set up in most provinces in China. All equipment for these mills is manufactured in China.
· Advanced technology and equipment have been introduced from abroad since 1985, such as the bagasse and cotton Particleboard Processing Plant and MDF Mills with annual production of 30-50 thousand m3 in some provinces such as Guangdong, Shandong and Hebei etc.
· Non-wood panels with inorganic binders have been produced. A mill to produce a board with cement-bonded wheat-straw is set up with annual production of 10 thousand m3 in Shandong Province. Research on the technologies for the production of gypsum particleboard with cotton straw and bamboo has been conducted by the scientists of the Chinese Academy of Forestry.
In 1994, the total output of particleboard and fibreboard reached 1.69 million m3 and 1.93 million m3 respectively in China, of which the production from non-wood fibre accounted for 15-25%.
Because the utilization of wheat straw to manufacture paper has caused a serious waste water pollution, the paper mills with annual production of less 5 thousand tons have been forced to close. The paper mills with production of over 5 thousand tons also face a similar fate if the problem of waste water is not controlled. In the light of present situation, the industry of non-wood particleboard (which has less pollution to environment, lower cost and good benefits) may be rapidly developed in future. The main raw materials are to be the straws of bagasse, cotton, flax, tobacco and maize etc.
Concerning the production scale, the mills will be set up with annual output of 16-30 thousand m3 instead of small-scale mills with annual output of 10 thousand m3 in future. However, it is impossible to set up non-wood MDF mills of middle or large scale because of poor investment and power as well as technological problems, but it is possible to set up MDF plants using bagasse and cotton straw as raw materials with annual output of 20-30 thousand m3 in the near future.
