Meat Market Review - Overview of global meat market developments in 2018

FAO

Meat Market Review - Overview of global meat market developments in 2018

mrt/19

Year of publication 2019

Place of publication Rome, Italy ;

Pages 11p.

Author FAO

Publisher FAO ;

Product type Journal, magazine, bulletin

Edition 1

Full item page

Synopsis (short abstract) Global meat output in 2018 is estimated at 336.4 million tonnes, up 1.2 percent from 2017, principally originated in the United States, the EU, and the Russian Federation, but partially offset by a decline in China and stagnation in Brazil, two of the world’s largest meat producers. Meat output volumes expanded in all major regions in the world, especially in Europe and North America. Productivity improvements, as countries introduced better management practices, more streamlined production systems and new technology, were largely behind the output expansion. Moreover, droughts in some parts of the world, including in the United States in the first half of the year, in the EU during the summer months, and Australia almost throughout the year, led to higher animal slaughter. Across the various meat sub-sectors, bovine meat output (refer to meat derived from ruminant mammals including cows, ox and buffalos) registered the highest expansion (+2.1 percent), followed by poultry meat (+1.3 percent), but remained stable for ovine meat (meat derived from sheep and goats) (+0.6 percent) and pigmeat (+0.6 percent). World meat exports in 2018 is estimated at 33.8 million tonnes, up 2.9 percent from 2017, principally driven by increased shipments from the United States, Australia, Argentina and the EU, but retreated in India, China and Brazil. China, the world’s largest meat importer, increased its purchases significantly, as consumer demand for meat continued to rise amid a contraction in pigmeat output, partly due to the onset of the African swine fever. Elsewhere, imports increased in the Republic of Korea, and Viet Nam, while the Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia and the United States have cut back on imports. Across meat categories, world meat exports expanded at faster rates for ovine (+9.4 percent) and bovine (+6.1 percent) than for pigmeat (+1.6 percent) and poultry (+1.0 percent). The annual average value of world meat prices in 2018, measured by the FAO Meat Price Index, was 2.2 percent lower than in 2017, reflecting the declines in prices of pig (-8.1 percent) and poultry (-4.8 percent) meats and stability of bovine meat prices (+0.2 percent). Ovine meat prices increased by as much as 17 percent, but did not affect the average index value significantly because of its low weightage in the index. The spread of the African Swine Fever (ASF) and associated import restrictions weighed on international pigmeat price quotations while generally sluggish poultry import demand caused its prices to weaken. Abundant export supplies and robust demand from across the world characterized the global bovine market, keeping its prices stable. Price strength of ovine meat during the whole year was a result of strong import demand, combined with limited supplies from Oceania.

Language English

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Key trends in 2018 Global meat output is forecast to hover around 335 million tonnes in 2018, up 1.5 percent from 2017, the fastest pace of growth since 2014. The regained momentum coincides with expectations of a strong recovery of the meat sector in China, after three years of contraction, and of sizeable increases in the United States and the EU. At the regional level, the outlook is generally positive, with all regions expected to produce more meat this year. World meat exports in 2018 are forecast to set a new record of 33.6 million tonnes, up 2.6 percent from 2017. This comes in the wake of a continued increase in shipments from the United States amid a retreat by India, Brazil and South Africa. Australia, Argentina, Thailand and the EU are also expected to expand exports. Amid changes in production, consumer demand and policies, meat imports are likely to rise in some major importing countries, in particular China, Japan, Mexico and the Republic of Korea, while they may fall in the Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Singapore. Import demand is rising faster for bovine and ovine meat than for pigmeat and poultry. The FAO Meat Price Index reached 166.2 points in September, stable compared to January 2018, but 4.5 percent below the corresponding month in 2017. Since January 2018, international prices of bovine meat have weakened by 3.8 percent, reflecting the availability of ample export supplies.
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World meat output, comprising bovine, pig, poultry and ovine meat, is estimated at 330 million tonnes in 2017, an increase of 1 percent from 2016. Among the main meat producing countries, total meat output expanded in the United States (+2.8%), Brazil (+2.1%), the Russian Federation (+4%), Argentina (+4.8%), Mexico (+3.5%), India (+2.7); stagnated in China and the EU; but declined in South Africa (-2.5%). Across the main meat categories, poultry meat output - the most widely produced meat reached 120.5 million tonnes in 2017, up 1.1 percent from 2016; followed by pig meat (118.7 million tonnes, +0.7%); bovine meat (70.8 million tonnes, +1.5%); and ovine meat (14.9 million tonnes, +1.3%). World meat exports in 2017 reached 32.7 million tonnes, 2.7 percent higher than in 2016. Meat exports increased especially in the United States (+5.6%), Turkey (+36.3%), Argentina (+22%) and Thailand (+8.8%), but declined in the EU (-3.4%), Chile (-9.5%), South Africa (-8.3%). Meat imports expanded mainly in Japan (+9.4), the Russian Federation (+10.4%), Viet Nam (+7.7%) and Angola (+25.3%), but declined in China (-6.3%), Saudi Arabia (-11%), the EU (-4.2%) and Canada (-1.8%). Across the main meat categories, in 2017 world trade expanded in bovine, poultry and ovine meat, but pig meat trade declined. With this development, poultry meat has become the most widely produced and internationally traded meat type in the world. The average international meat price increased by nearly 9 percent in 2017 over 2016. Meat export prices increased moderately from January to June 2017 but began levelling off afterwards and eased eventually. Strong import demand underpinned moderate price increases in the first half of the year, but between July and December, sluggish import demand and rises in export availabilities weighed on meat prices. Meat price increases in the first half of the year resulted in the average annual price for the whole year to exceed that of 2016. Across the meat categories, the average international price in 2017 for ovine meat rose by 25.6 percent, pig meat by 9.8 percent, poultry meat by 8.4 percent and bovine meat by 6.3 percent. Ovine meat prices rose due to strong import demand that outpaced export supplies from Oceania. Global markets for bovine, pig and poultry meat were well supplied, especially in the second half of the year.
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Global meat output is forecast at 335 million tonnes (in carcass weight equivalent) in 2019, 1 percent lower than in 2018. This marks a departure from the stable growth trend recorded over the past two decades and indicates a sharper fall than anticipated in May, principally due to a deeper than earlier expected impact of African Swine Fever (ASF) in China and its spread to several East Asian countries. World meat exports is forecast at 36 million tonnes in 2019, up 6.7 percent from 2018, principally driven by increased imports by China due to domestic tightness caused by ASF-related production losses. The FAO Meat Price Index measured by the FAO Meat Price Index, have continued to register moderate month-on-month increases since the start of 2019, with pig meat, frozen in particular, recording the sharpest rise due to the surge in import demand by China. Poultry, ovine and bovine meat prices strengthened, also supported by stronger Asian demand.