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Methodological note on new estimates of the prevalence of undernourishment in China













Cafiero, C., Feng, J. & Ishaq, A. 2020. Methodological note on new estimates of the prevalence of undernourishment in China. FAO Statistics Working Paper 20-18. Rome, FAO. 




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    Estimating the prevalence of nutrient inadequacy from household consumption and expenditure surveys 2022
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    Malnutrition is pervasive in both low- and middle-income countries. Yet, there is a scarcity of food intake data collected at the individual level to describe diets, determine the prevalence of inadequate nutrient consumption in populations, and shed light on how diets contribute to the malnutrition burden. In the absence of nationally representative individual-level food intake surveys, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, dietary data collected in household consumption and expenditure surveys (HCES) are being used as a second-best option to make inferences on the food and nutrient consumption of populations. This paper proposes an innovative approach to estimate variability in nutrient intake that uses food data collected in HCES to estimate the prevalence of nutrient inadequacy in a country. This method builds on the approach developed by FAO to estimate the indicator of inequality used in the Prevalence of Undernourishment used in the global monitoring of food insecurity.
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    The Probability Distribution Framework for estimating the Prevalence of Undernourishment
    Exploding the Myth of the Bivariate Distribution
    2007
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    In his pioneering study carried in the early 1960’s, Sukhatme had formulated the estimate of the prevalence of undernourishment in a population within a bivariate distribution framework where dietary energy consumption (DEC) and dietary energy requirement (DER) are considered as random variables. The evaluation of the formula required the specification of the joint distribution of DEC and DER. In the absence of data on the joint distribution Sukhatme had, as an approximation, formulate d the estimate within a univariate distribution framework involving the distribution of DEC and a cut-off point reflecting the lower limit of the distribution of DER. FAO’s methodology for estimating the prevalence of undernourishment has been traditionally based on this univariate distribution framework. However, since this approach appeared to ignore the risk of undernourishment at DEC levels overlapping the range of variation of requirement, it has been criticised as yielding an und erestimate of the magnitude of the problem of undernourishment. In view of this some analysts have attempted to apply the bivariate distribution framework by modeling the joint distribution of intake and requirement. Others have applied the univariate distribution framework but used the average DER requirement rather than the lower limit of the distribution of DER as the cut-off point. All these attempts have led to very high estimates of the prevalence of undernourishment. In further studies undertaken in the 1970’s Sukhatme has attempted to justify the univariate distribution framework that he proposed earlier by postulating the theory of intra-individual variation in energy requirement which implies that an individual cannot be considered to be undernourished or overnourished as long as his or her DEC is within the range of variation of DER.
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    Methodological issues in the estimation of the prevalence of undernourishment based on dietary energy consumption data: A review and clarification 2014
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    Sukhatme had in the early 1960’s originally formulated the estimate of the proportion of undernourished in a population (PU) within a bivariate distribution framework where dietary energy consumption (DEC) and dietary energy requirement (DER) are considered as random variables. However, in the absence of data on DEC and DER of individuals expressed in the form of bivariate distribution, Sukhatme had suggested a formula that considers the part of the distribution of DEC below a cut-off point repr esenting the lower limit of the distribution of DER as an estimate of PU. However, this univariate approach has been criticised as yielding an underestimate of the magnitude of the prevalence undernourishment in a population. In response to this critic, Sukhatme has attempted to justify the approach by invoking the theory of intra-individual changes in DER. As this theory has led to a controversy rather than a clarification of the univariate approach, doubts regarding its validity still prevail. Following a review of these developments including the concept of DER, this article shows that the formulation of PU within the bivariate distribution framework is inappropriate. Subsequently, the relevance of the univariate approach is clarified. Finally, the article addresses certain issues relating to practical estimation of the prevalence measures based on household rather than individual data pertaining to DEC.

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