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Book (series)Comprendiendo el impacto de El Niño relacionado con la sequía en las zonas agrícolas mundiales
Evaluación utilizando el Índice de Estrés Agrícola de la FAO (ASI)
2015Also available in:
FAO monitors the evolution of hazards and provides early indications and warnings on possible impacts on agriculture and food security. One such phenomenon is the periodic occurrence of El Niño. During El Niño episodes the normal patterns of tropical precipitation and atmospheric circulation become disrupted triggering extreme climate events around the globe: droughts, floods and affecting the intensity and frequency of hurricanes. Agriculture is one of the main sectors of the economy that could be severely affected by El Niño phenomena. FAO monitors the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, among other weather related hazards, with a special focus on the potential impacts on the agricultural sector. FAO-GIEWS communicates developments during the gestation period and issues alerts and warningsif and when necessary. The objective of this study is to enhance our understanding of the El Niño phenomenon using FAO’s Agricultural Stress Index system (ASIS). FAOASI, developed with t he support of EU/FAO Improved Global Governance for Hunger Reduction Programme, is based on remote sensing data that highlights anomalous vegetation growth and potential drought in arable land during a given cropping season. -
NewsletterGIEWS Update Central America, 27 August 2018
Drought causes crop losses in “Dry Corridor” in Central America
2018Also available in:
No results found.There is a high risk of contraction in the production of basic grain crops in Central America because of the intensified "heat wave"2 in July, affecting the flowering and grain-filling phases of the crops. The maize and bean crops grown for self-consumption are expected to be the most affected, mainly in the areas of the “Dry Corridor”. The extent to which the crops are affected highly depends on the timing of sowing and the geographical distribution of rain. As of 15 August 2018, the Governments of El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras reported losses of 282 000 hectares in maize and bean crops, resulting in an estimated 2.2 million people at risk of food insecurity. In general, the period of food shortage in the region is between April and August, with supplies getting particularly tight from July. This season’s crop losses could make the next lean season more pronounced, with tight supplies and a worsening food security situation setting in earlier-than-normal in 2019 in the “Dry Corridor” area. There is a 60 percent probability (IRI/CPC, August 2018) that the El Niño phenomenon would occur in late 2018, which could put the second and third season production in the region at risk. To anticipate and mitigate the impact of the drought, national governments are identifying measures that contribute to risk reduction, early action and potential response in collaboration with FAO and WFP. -
Book (series)Climate-change vulnerability in rural Zambia: the impact of an El Niño-induced shock on income and productivity 2019
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No results found.This paper examines the impacts of the El Niño during the 2015/2016 season on maize productivity and income in rural Zambia. The analysis aims at identifying whether and how sustainable land management (SLM) practices and livelihood diversification strategies have contributed to moderate the impacts of such a weather shock. The analysis was conducted using a specifically designed survey called the El Niño Impact Assessment Survey (ENIAS), which is combined with the 2015 wave of the Rural Agricultural Livelihoods Surveys (RALS), as well as high resolution rainfall data from the Africa Rainfall Climatology version 2 (ARC2). This unique, integrated data set provides an opportunity to understand the impacts of shocks like El Niño that are expected to get more frequent and severe in Zambia, as well as understand the agricultural practices and livelihood strategies that can buffer household production and welfare from the impacts of such shocks to drive policy recommendations. Results show that households affected by the drought experienced a decrease in maize yield by around 20 percent, as well as a reduction in income up to 37 percent, all else equal. Practices that moderated the impact of the drought included livestock diversification, income diversification, and the adoption of agro-forestry. Interestingly, the use of minimum soil disturbance was not effective in moderating the yield and income effects of the drought. Policies to support livestock sector development, agroforestry adoption, and off -farm diversification should be prioritized as effective drought resiliency strategies in Zambia.
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