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Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Bulletin # 1, 10 February 2021

Monthly Report on Food Price Trends













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    Export prices of wheat and maize generally declined in February amid well-supplied global markets and uncertainties about the impact of Coronavirus on global demand. By contrast, international prices of rice strengthened, on a combination of demand from Far Eastern and East African buyers and tight availabilities in some exporting countries. In Southern Africa, maize price increases eased reflecting improved prospects for the 2020 harvest, large import volumes and the effects of policies aimed at stabilizing prices. Prices, however, remained broadly higher, year on year, amid tight regional supplies. In East Africa, prices of coarse grains declined seasonally in most countries of the subregion in February as the recently completed second season harvests improved market supplies. By contrast, in the Sudan, prices continued to soar and reached record highs in February due to a below-average 2019 cereal output coupled with high production and transportation costs. In East Asia, prices of wheat flour in Pakistan declined from the record or near-record highs reached in January following Government measures and favourable production prospects for the about-to-start 2020 main season harvest.
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    International wheat prices were generally stable in recent weeks but those of coarse grains continued to increase amid strong import demand. International rice prices also firmed, driven by demand for lower quality Indica and Japonica varieties. In East Africa, prices of coarse grains generally followed mixed trends in February. In most countries, prices were around or below their year-earlier levels, except in the Sudan and South Sudan, where they were at near-record to record levels, underpinned by insufficient supplies and severe macro‑economic difficulties, including continuous and sustained depreciation of the local currencies. In Central America, prices of beans mostly decreased in February with the start of the “Apante” season harvest, but remained well above their year-earlier values because of the significant increases in the past two months due to crop losses caused by two consecutive hurricanes in November 2020.
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    International prices of wheat and major coarse grains increased further in November, reflecting continued strong global demand. However, rice values remained steady with support provided by tight availabilities and currency movements in selected South East Asian exporters countering limited demand and harvest pressure in other major origins. In East Africa, prices of coarse grains increased further in the Sudan and South Sudan in November, reaching record highs in several markets of both countries, underpinned by insufficient supplies and difficult macro-economic conditions, including a sustained depreciation of the national currencies. In West Africa, prices of coarse grains eased further in Nigeria with fresh supplies from the 2020 harvest but supply chain bottlenecks amid generally difficult macro-economic conditions sustained them well above their year-earlier values, particularly in the northeast where persistent conflict exacerbated the economic challenges. In Central America, prices of maize and beans increased, especially in Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua, hit hard by hurricanes Eta and Iota.

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