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Book (series)Crop Prospects and Food Situation, No. 2 June 2016 2016Global cereal production prospects continue to improve although latest forecasts indicate that world cereal output in 2016 would still fall slightly short of the projected demand in 2016/17. COUNTRIES IN NEED OF EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE: FAO estimates that 37 countries, including 28 in Africa, are in need of external assistance for food. Persisting conflicts, acutely undermining agricultural capacities and drought‑induced production declines, frequently linked to the now dissipating El Niño, are the main causes stressing food security in 2016. In AFRICA: The early aggregate outlook for the 2016 cereal crops points to a fall in production, mostly resulting from expected drought-reduced harvests in North and Southern Africa. In Central and West Africa, 2016 early crop prospects are uncertain, largely due to unfavourable weather and conflicts, while the overall outlook improved in East Africa, on account of recent favourable rains that eliminated early seasonal dryness. In ASIA: The outlook fo r 2016 points to a production recovery in the Far East, with a steep increase foreseen in India expected to more than offset a cut in China’s output. By contrast, cereal outputs are likely to fall in the Asian CIS subregion and in the Near East, where several countries continue to be severely affected by conflicts. In LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: Aggregate cereal production in 2016 is forecast to decline on expectations of reduced crops in the key-producing countries of Brazil and Mexico, bu t still remain above average, mostly owing to a larger output anticipated in Argentina. Production recoveries from the 2015 drought‑reduced levels are foreseen in Central America and the Caribbean countries.
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DocumentFPMA Bulletin #3, 10 April 2017
Monthly Report on Food Price Trends
2017International wheat export prices followed diverging trends in March depending on the origin. The benchmark US wheat price declined after increasing in the previous two months, mainly reflecting improved weather conditions in key-growing areas. By contrast, in Argentina, prices increased because of strong demand. Maize export prices generally declined under pressure from favourable production prospects in Southern Hemisphere countries. International prices of rice remained relatively stable and were below their year-earlier levels in several leading origins. In East Africa, cereal prices continued to increase at a fast pace in March and reached record or near-record highs in most countries due to overall tight supplies and the uncertain prospects for the upcoming 2017 main harvests. High prices of cereals and low livestock prices further deteriorated the terms of trade for pastoralists, severely constraining their access to food. In Southern Africa, expectations of a strong maize produ ction rebound in 2017 contributed to push down prices in most countries. In the key subregional producer and exporter South Africa, prices of white maize fell by nearly 30 percent in March, continuing the declining trend of the previous two months and were less than half their year-earlier levels. -
Book (series)Crop Prospects and Food Situation, No. 4 2015FAO’s latest forecasts for global supply and demand of cereals continue to point to a generally comfortable 2015/16 marketing season, with world inventories by the close of seasons in 2016 expected to fall only slightly below their record opening levels. AFRICA: Cereal production in 2015 is forecast to fall, mainly reflecting the impact of adverse weather on Southern Africa’s output and the ongoing harvest in East Africa. Harvests in West and Central Africa are forecast to remain close to the levels of 2014, while a production recovery in North Africa is anticipated to prevent a steeper regional decline. Conflicts in several countries continued to severely affect food security and the agriculture sector, while drought conditions in East Africa have severely impacted pastoralist livelihoods. ASIA: A record 2015 cereal crop in China boosted aggregate regional production to levels above the previous year, while a recovery in Turkey’s output also contributed. However, dry weather in so me areas of the Far East lowered production in several countries, with a significant decline estimated in India. The persistent conflicts in Iraq, the Syrian Arab Republic and Yemen continued to severely impact on agricultural production and aggravate the humanitarian crisis. LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: Despite improved prospects for second season crops, El Niño-associated dry weather reduced overall 2015 crop production in Central America and the Caribbean, excluding Mexico, where a bumpe r crop was gathered. Large 2015 maize harvests are also estimated in South America, where plantings for the 2016 crops are expected to decline, mainly reflecting ample regional supplies and lower commodity prices. El Niño continues to impact on global agriculture: Following El Niño-related dry weather that adversely affected 2015 crop production in parts of Asia, Central America and the Caribbean, and Oceania, developing dryness in Southern Africa has dampened early 2016 production prospects. FAO estimates that, globally, 33 countries, including 26 in Africa, are in need of external assistance for food.
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