FAO - Forestry assessment

Outlook projections for the Asia Pacific Region were compiled from three primary sources:

1) Forestry Statistics Today for Tomorrow: 19945-1993 & 2010 (FAO, Rome, 1995)

2) Forest Products: World Outlook Projections: Projections of Consumption and Production of Wood-based Products to 2010, FAO Forestry Paper 84, Vol. II, (FAO, Rome, updated September 1991)

3) Forest Resources Assessment 1990 (FAO, Rome)

Basic data on total roundwood for 1993 by Asia Pacific Region is summarized in Table 49 as a point of reference. Detailed information by sub-region and country is contained in Appendix 25. Information regarding the recent trends (1980, 1985 and 1990-94) is also summarized in Table 50, with the trends in apparent consumption highlighted.¹⁰ As previously noted, total roundwood production for Asia Pacific increased from 891.3 million cubic meters in 1980 to 1,131.8 million cubic meters in 1994. With the Region being a net importer of roundwood, total consumption has grown from 917.9 million cubic meters to 1,164.5 million cubic meters in 1994. As shown in Table 49, the majority of roundwood production is non-conifer, at 919.6 million cubic meters for 1993 with some 208.2 million cubic meters of conifer. Charcoal accounted for an additional 22 million cubic meters. The Asia Pacific Region accounted for almost $34.5 percent of global total roundwood, and 44.7 percent of non-conifer roundwood. In contrast, the Region produced only 18.5 percent of conifer roundwood.

¹⁰ Table 48 reproduces the information shown in Table 33 with the emphasis put on the trends in the regional apparent consumption determined as production (+/-) net trade.

Table 49 also indicates the dominance of fuelwood for the Asia Pacific Region, for 1993, total fuelwood production and consumption was an estimated 855.8 million cubic meters, or 74.4 percent of reported total roundwood. This represented 45.6 percent of global fuelwood for 1993. Projections by FAO indicate expected consumption of over 1,030.1 million cubic meters of fuelwood by the year 2010, an increase of 20.4 percent over 1993. Projected volume increase is over 174.3 million cubic meters.

Table 49. Forest Production and Consumption 1993 and Outlook 2010: Roundwood and Fuelwood

		Roundwood Production 1993 (1000 CUM)				Fuelwood (1000 CUM)
		Total	Conifer	Non-Conifer	Charcoal	1993	2010
ASIA-PACIFIC REGION SUMMARY
	SOUTH ASIA	378,663	12,033	354,042	12,588	349,084	457,893
	CONTINENTAL SE ASIA	105,997	179	101,108	4,710	93,587	104,745
	NORTH ASIA	337,092	171,088	165,458	546	209,780	232,426
	INSULAR SE ASIA	282,441	641	277,780	4,020	194,617	223,067
	OCEANIA-SOUTH PACIFIC	45,652	24,224	21,230	198	8,750	11,994
TOTAL - ASIAN PACIFIC REGION		1,149,845	208,165	919,618	22,062	855,818	1,030,125
Developed, All		1,246,056	843,853	395,631	6,572	213,108	250,350
Developing, All		2,087,969	284,715	1,663,500	139,754	1,662,748	2,130,629
WORLD		3,334,025	1,128,568	2,059,131	146,326	1,875,856	2,380,979
ASIAN PACIFIC SHARE OF WORLD		34.49%	18.45%	44.66%	15.08%	45.62%	43.26%
Source: FAO Forestry Statistics Today for Tomorrow, 1995

Table 50. Summary: Production and Net Trade of Forest Products with Apparent Consumption 1980, 1985, and 1990-94

Asia Pacific Region - Summary: Production and Net Trade of Forest Products by Volume (1000 CUM)
FAOSTAT				1980	1985	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994
Total Roundwood (1000 CUM)
	Production			891,265	976,498	1,065,824	1,083,502	1,103,470	1,117,072	1,131,816
	Net Trade			-26,602	-30,596	-32,080	-34,139	-29,756	-33,444	-32,788
	Apparent Consumption			917,867	1,007,094	1,097,904	1,117,641	1,133,226	1,150,516	1,164,604
Non-Conifer Roundwood (1000 CUM)
	Production			722,311	790,415	870,616	886,365	902,276	908,365	919,001
	Industrial Roundwood
		Production		157,475	161,406	175,882	178,176	180,547	172,920	169,823
		Net Trade
			Tropical				2,188	3,058	1,808	486
			Other				1,212	-965	-1,123	-1,083
	Apparent Consumption
		Industrial					174,776	178,454	172,235	170,420
		Other					708,189	721,729	735,445	749,178
		Total					882,965	900,183	907,680	919,598
Conifer Roundwood (1000 CUM)
	Production			168,955	186,085	195,210	197,138	201,195	208,708	212,816
	Industrial Roundwood
		Production		93,856	104,525	105,956	106,121	108,696	114,383	116,645
		Net Trade					-20,436	-17,733	-17,090	-17,480
		Apparent Consumption
			Industrial				126,557	126,429	131,473	134,125
			Other				91,017	92,499	94,325	96,171
			Total				217,574	218,928	225,798	230,296
Sawnwood - Non-Conifer (1000 CUM)
	Production			44,641	49,135	52,928	52,710	51,449	52,065	51,033
	Net Trade			3,813	3,133	1,121	949	1,382	354	1,535
	Apparent Consumption			40,828	46,002	51,807	51,761	50,067	51,711	49,498
Sawnwood - Conifer (1000 CUM)
	Production			50,527	50,787	51,854	47,242	46,161	49,925	49,537
	Net Trade			-4,681	-4,740	-7,894	-7,849	-8,218	-9,603	-9,663
	Apparent Consumption			55,208	55,527	59,748	55,091	54,379	59,528	59,200
Wood Panels (1000 CUM)
	Production			19,453	22,299	29,093	34,144	40,418	44,192	50,659
	Net Trade			2,926	4,484	2,942	2,641	2,497	1,621	712
	Apparent Consumption			16,527	17,815	26,151	31,503	37,921	42,571	49,947
Wood Pulp (1000 MT)
	Production			14,370	15,260	18,977	19,687	19,564	19,749	20,149
	Net Trade			-3,118	-3,926	-4,891	-5,627	-6,291	-6,830	-8,124
	Apparent Consumption			17,488	19,186	23,868	25,314	25,855	26,579	28,273
Paper & Paperboard (1,000 MT)
	Production			31,008	39,554	58,391	61,912	64,408	69,078	74,513
	Net Trade			-2,514	-3,317	-4,091	-3,981	-5,221	-5,796	-7,051
	Apparent Consumption			33,522	42,871	62,482	65,893	69,629	74,874	81,564

Basic summary comparisons for 1993 and projected consumption for 2010 is shown in Table 51 for Industrial Roundwood, Sawnwood and Wood Based Panels. Detailed data and projections by sub-region and country is included in Appendix 26. Industrial roundwood consumption is projected to increase from 329 million cubic meters in 1993 to some 563 thousand cubic meters in 2010. This represents an increase of 233.7 million cubic meters, or 70.9 percent over 1993. Thus although fuelwood is expected to maintain a large share of projected consumption, the growth in industrial roundwood consumption exceeds fuelwood increase by volume. The Asia Pacific Region would gain slightly in terms of worldwide consumption to about 24.7 percent of projected global consumption in 2010.

The Asia Pacific Region is projected to increase consumption of sawnwood from 111.5 million cubic meters in 1993 to over 200.3 million cubic meters for 2010. This represents an increase of over 88.8 million cubic meters (79.7 percent). Consumption within the Asia Pacific Region would grow to about 31.9 percent of global consumption from just under 26 percent in 1993. Finally, consumption of wood based panels is projected at 99.3 million cubic meters in 2010, in contrast to 41.4 million cubic meters for 1993. This is an increase of 57.9 million cubic meters, or over 140 percent.

Essentially all sub-regions are expected to experience increased consumption of fuelwood, with the largest increase in South Asia. India accounts for the majority of the sub-region's increase, at over 388.2 million cubic meters of fuelwood consumption in 2010, an increase of over 75 million cubic meters. Industrial Roundwood consumption is projected to increase in all sub-regions as well, with the biggest gains in North Asia (99.5 million cubic meters) led by China (+89 million cubic meters) with a more moderate gain in Japan's consumption (+12.3 million cubic meters). Insular SE Asia is projected to consume 159.8 million cubic meters of industrial roundwood in 2010, a doubling of 1993 consumption. The largest increases are in Malaysia (42.4 million cubic meters) and Indonesia (35.1 million cubic meters). Philippine consumption would also double, to 8.1 million cubic meters.

Significant changes in sawnwood consumption is projected for all sub-regions excepting Oceania-S. Pacific. Greatest absolute increases in sawnwood consumption are projected for North Asia (33.2 million cubic meters) and South Asia (25.4 million cubic meters). China, Japan and South Korea account for the majority of North Asia's projected increase in sawnwood consumption, while India dominates South Asia consumption increases.

Wood panel consumption increased significantly in all sub-regions under the FAO projections, with North Asia again showing the greatest gain (48.1 million cubic meters). While China's projected consumption of wood panels doubles, Japan consumption leads North Asia with a projected increase in consumption of 290 percent, to over 38.2 million cubic meters.

Table 51. Summary: Asia Pacific Production 1993 and Outlook 2010: Industrial Roundwood, Sawnwood and Wood Based Panels

ASIAN PACIFIC REGION - Forest Pro
	Industrial Roundwood (1000 CUM)			Sawnwood (1000 CUM)			Wood-Based Panels (1000 CUM)
	Production	Consumption		Production	Consumption		Production	Consumption
	1993	1993	2010	1993	1993	2010	1993	1993	2010
ASIA-PACIFIC REGION SUMMARY
SOUTH ASIA	29,579	29,909	51,615	19,719	19,732	45,119	557	553	1,550
CONTINENTAL SE ASIA	12,410	11,858	21,611	2,272	3,375	12,564	904	770	2,562
NORTH ASIA	129,192	186,446	285,969	55,571	69,191	102,412	24,368	35,309	83,424
INSULAR SE ASIA	87,823	78,198	159,817	18,328	12,733	32,353	15,241	3,247	8,871
OCEANIA-SOUTH PACIFIC	36,902	22,949	43,999	6,213	6,466	7,887	1,885	1,476	2,865
TOTAL - ASIAN PACIFIC REGION	295,906	329,360	563,011	102,103	111,497	200,335	42,955	41,355	99,272
Developed, All	1,032,948	1,042,061	1,549,859	318,885	314,409	406,239	91,700	96,975	180,285
Developing, All	425,221	417,785	728,045	113,525	114,587	222,696	41,348	35,328	75,450
WORLD	1,458,169	1,459,846	2,277,904	432,410	428,997	628,935	133,049	132,304	255,735
ASIAN PACIFIC SHARE OF WORLD	20.29%	22.56%	24.72%	23.61%	25.99%	31.85%	32.29%	31.26%	38.82%
Source: FAO Forest Resource Asessm

Projected consumption for Pulp for Paper and Paper & Paperboard is summarized in Table 52. Detailed estimates by sub-region and country are provided in Appendix 27. As shown, wood pulp production for 1993 was almost 15.8 million metric tons, with 1.7 million metric tons from other fibers.¹¹ Including separate estimates for China, total wood pulp production would be an estimated 18.2 million metric tons and production from other fibers would be 17.1 million cubic meters. Asia Pacific projected consumption of total pulp for paper for 2010, exclusive of China, was estimated at 38.9 million metric tons, or an increase of almost 16 million metric tons. China's expected large increase in pulp consumption would be in addition to this incomplete projection. Projections from FAO Forestry Report 84 show China's consumption in 2010 at 20.8 million tons of other fiber pulp and 8.9 million metric tons of wood pulp, for a total of 29.7 million metric tons, raising the approximate estimated total Asia Pacific Region consumption to over 68.6 million metric tons.

¹¹ Information for China is not included in these projections, hence totals for North Asia are incomplete. China produces a significant volume of wood pulp, estimated at 2.4 million metric tons for 1993. Pulp from other fibers was estimated at 15.3 million metric tons for China in 1993. FAO Forest Products Yearbook-1993.

Paper and Paperboard consumption as shown in Table 52 is estimated to grow from 74.1 million metric tons for 1993 in the Asia Pacific Region to almost 182.7 million metric tons with over 153.4 million metric tons consumed in North Asia. Overall, this is an increase of 108.6 million metric tons, or almost 147 percent over 1993. For North Asia, consumption would increase by 92.7 million metric tons, or by over 152 percent. Consumption in other sub-regions are also projected to increase significantly in percentage terms, although the absolute increases are more moderate. South Asia would increase by almost 4 million metric tons (113 percent), Continental SE Asia by 2.7 million metric tons (137 percent), Insular SE Asia by 6.6 million metric tons (143 percent) and Oceania S.-Pacific by 2.7 million metric tons (83 percent). Overall, Asia Pacific is projected to increase the share of global paper and paperboard consumption from 29.4 percent to over 38.1 percent by 2010.

Outlook projections were updated by FAO in September 1991¹² Projections for the years 2000 and 2010 are summarized in Table 53 with detailed sub-region and country projections included in Appendix 28. The projected consumption for fuelwood is slightly lower, at 1.02 billion cubic meters, or about 10 thousand cubic meters below the 1990 Assessment projected level. Industrial Roundwood consumption for Asia Pacific in 2010 is projected at a higher level, however, at 632.7 million cubic meters in contrast to an earlier projection of 563 million cubic meters. Wood for pulp was projected at an additional 138.6 million cubic meters, while sawnwood in 2010 was slightly lower (at 194 million cubic meters) than earlier projections of 200.3 million cubic meters. Wood based panels were increased slightly in the revised projections, from 99.3 million cubic meters to 100.5 million cubic meters, resulted in increased consumption for South Asia, Continental SE Asia and North Asia, whereas projected consumption was lower for Insular SE Asia and Oceania-S. Pacific.

¹² FAO, Forest Products World Outlook Projections, FAO Forestry Paper 84, September 1991 Update. New outlook projections for 1995 are anticipated soon and will be incorporated in the Final report if available.

Table 52. Summary Asia Pacific Production 1993 and Outlook 2010: Pulp for Paper and Paper & Paperboard

ASIAN PACIFIC REGION
		Pulp for Paper (1000 MT)				Paper & Paperboard (1000 MT)
		Production 1993		Consumption		Production	Consumption
		Wood	Other	1993	2010	1993	1993	2010
ASIA-PACIFIC REGION SUMMARY
	SOUTH ASIA	990	1,291	2,519	2,190	2,971	3,530	7,519
	CONTINENTAL SE ASIA	57	265	591	404	1,446	1,950	4,615
	NORTH ASIA	10,940	54	15,610	30,490	57,657	60,707	153,363
	INSULAR SE ASIA	1,410	169	2,290	2,971	3,835	4,623	11,213
	OCEANIA-SOUTH PACIFIC	2,364	6	1,897	2,814	2,848	3,244	5,943
	TOTAL - ASIAN PACIFIC REGION	15,761	1,785	22,907	38,869	68,757	74,054	182,653
Developed, All		133,771	587	132,162	196,082	201,737	190,782	329,989
Developing, All		14,624	18,206	34,556	29,598	51,849	61,419	149,189
WORLD		148,395	18,792	166,718	225,680	253,586	252,202	479,178
ASIAN PACIFIC SHARE OF WORLD		10.62%	9.50%	13.74%	17.22%	27.11%	29.36%	38.12%
Source: FAO Forest Resource Asessm

Table 53. Projected Forest Resources Consumption in the Asian Pacific Region

	Roundwood		Ind. Roundwood		Fuelwood		Wood for Pulp		Sawnwood		Wood Panel
	2000	2010	2000	2010	2000	2010	2000	2010	2000	2010	2000	2010
South Asia	451,353	537,508	43,728	63,716	407,625	473,791	7,508	15,181	28,181	39,935	1,374	2,964
Continental Asia	108,417	121,686	18,089	24,751	90,327	96,934	292	535	4,208	6,197	799	1,927
North Asia	498,137	587,604	285,502	369,620	212,634	217,984	70,035	98,286	91,804	117,039	39,108	75,938
Insular SE Asia	297,022	362,980	92,705	143,248	204,315	219,732	3,197	7,410	14,501	19,944	6,529	16,107
Oceania-S. Pacific	36,280	44,395	25,154	31,386	11,124	13,010	11,706	17,149	8,707	10,859	2,409	3,598
Asia Pacific Region	1,391,209	1,654,173	465,178	632,721	926,025	1,021,451	92,738	138,561	147,401	193,974	50,219	100,534

FAO, Forest Products: World Outlook Projections. Forestry Paper 84, 1991

Projections formulated by FAO utilize the statistical relationship between consumption and measures of the individual country economies, including the projected growth rates for gross domestic product, gross fixed capital formation, levels of construction and projected growth, private final consumption, total population changes in forest area, shares of wood in energy consumption. Multiple regression techniques were used to formulate projection equations based on combinations of these determinants. Separate supply and demand functions were not formulated or utilized in these projections.