FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report 05/97

MALI

CURRENT SITUATION

Seasonably dry conditions prevail. Recession crops are about to be harvested in Kayes and Gao regions. A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission last year estimated aggregate cereal production at 2.2 million tons, which is 6 percent above 1995 and 3 percent above the average of the last five years. Millet, rice and wheat production rose significantly while production of maize and sorghum decreased. Forecasts for off-season crops are favourable. They are now estimated at about 49 000 tons, comprising 33 000 tons of rice, 14 000 tons of maize and 2 000 tons of sorghum. Isolated Desert Locust adults may be present and will persist in some parts of the Adrar des Iforas.

Following this relatively good harvest, the overall food supply situation is satisfactory. Prices of sorghum and maize started to decrease in late September and were still decreasing significantly in early 1997. They are now generally stable. Supply of cereals is adequate. The National Early Warning System (SAP), estimated that no food distribution is necessary for the moment but that several arrondissements in the north, notably in Kidal, Gao and Tombouctou regions, may face economic difficulties in 1997. Fodder supply is scarce in Kidal region and in Almoustarat arrondissement of Gao region. Terms of trade for pastoralists are generally more favourable than last year. Following the collapse of a dam on Lake Horo in Tombouctou region, more than 1 000 hectares usually cultivated for off-season crops have been flooded, leaving about 30 000 persons without any production, needing external assistance. The national early warning system recommended to maintain a sufficient stock in Kidal region and to reconstitute stocks in Tombouctou region in order to cover needs in Lake Horo area. Local purchase of about 17 000 tons of cereals is drawing to a close in Mopti and Ségou regions, thus bunging the national security stock at its initial level of 35 000 tons. For the 1996/97 marketing year (November/October), the cereal import requirement is estimated at 110 000 tons and food aid requirement at 35 000 tons. So far, 7 200 tons have been pledged. Food assistance is also given to the Tuaregs who have returned from neighbouring countries. Between November 1995 and November 1996, about 77 000 Malian refugees returned to their homes, arriving from Algeria (42 300), Mauritania (14 000), Niger (8 500), Burkina Faso (5 000) and Senegal (700). For 1997, about 62 000 additional refugees are anticipated to return in Mali from Niger (18 000), Burkina Faso (15 000), Mauritania (15 000) and Algeria (14 000).