FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report 05/97

SOMALIA

CURRENT SITUATION

Planting of the 1997 main "Gu" crop season is underway. Well above-average precipitation in the first dekad of April have delayed planting operations but substantially improved soil conditions following prolonged dry weather in the previous season. The 1997 secondary "Der" crop, accounting for some 25 percent of the annual cereal production, was sharply reduced. Late and poor rains during the season coupled with pest infestions and insecurity in areas resulted in a reduction of one third in the area planted and negatively affected yields. Latest estimates indicated a cereal output of 45 000 tons, 60 percent below both last year and the pre-war average levels. This reflects a drastic decline in sorghum crop to 72 000 tons, not compensated by an increase of 14 percent in maize crop to 37 000 tons. Pastures and livestock are also in poor conditions due to water shortages.

The 1996 main "Gu" crop was estimated by a FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission at 243 000 tons of cereals, 47 percent above the poor level of the previous year but, however, still one-third below normal. Moreover, the increase in production was concentrated in the Bay region and the Northwest, which together account for half of the country’s production. Elsewhere, production declined sharply. In aggregate the 1996/97 cereal production is estimated at 288 000 tons, 10 percent higher than in the previous year.

The food supply is tight in many areas following two successive reduced crops. Massive migration movements in search of employment and income generating activities are reported. Grain stocks are at minimum level and prices, which normally decline at harvest time, have increase significantly. The price of sorghum in late January was 65 percent higher than in November 1996. By contrast, prices of livestock have decreased sharply due to large sales by pastoralists in order to meet the cost of their living and the survival of their herds. Severe malnutrition cases have reportedly increased in the past month in the southern Bay and Baidoa regions. Leaders of the different political factions have appealed for international food aid but the prevailing insecurity in the country hampers relief operations in the affected areas. Import requirements for 1996/97 (September/August) are estimated at 256 000 tons. With an increase of commercial imports to some 170 000 tons, there is a deficit of 86 000 tons to be filled by food aid. There is also urgent need of assistance in the form of seeds for planting of the next "Gu" crop season, to start from next month.