FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report 05/97

TANZANIA

CURRENT SITUATION

Prospects for the 1997 long rains crop season in the unimodal rainfall central, southern and south-western areas are uncertain. This season, to be harvested in June/July, is the most important for cereals, providing some 40 percent of the annual maize production.

Rains at the beginning of the season, in November/December 1996, were erratic with a prolonged dry spell in December over most growing areas. In general, rains were one month late, becoming well established only in January. The late start of the rains resulted in reductions in the area planted and replanting of crops sown in November, mainly in central parts. While yields of the early planted crop are expected to be substantially lower than normal, the late-planted crops may not have enough time to mature and are vulnerable to an early end of the rainy season.

Precipitation in February and March remained patchy and below average in most parts with severe and prolonged dry spells in early March . Heavy rains in late March and the first dekade of April, resulted in floods in some southern areas and in localized damage to housing but generally improved crop conditions. However, the rains were late to prevent further reductions in yields and insufficient to allow a full recovery of crops in several parts.

Cereal crops, currently at advanced vegetative to flowering stage, are reported in poor condition in central parts -where replanting with short-cycle varieties are still taken place- but in a better situation in southern and south-western areas. Although the final outcome of the crop will depend on the rains in the last half of April, the cereal output is anticipated to decline substantially from last year due to lower plantings and yields. If good rains are not received in the remainder of the crop season, the impact on yields will be disastrous and production will be sharply reduced.

Following a drought-reduced 1996/97 "short rains" season in the north and north-eastern areas, which left some 700 000 people in need of emergency food assistance, the failure of this season’s crop would have disastrous consequences for the county’s food security. Adequate contingency plans by the national authorities and the international donor community are urgently advised to avoid major food difficulties.