Morocco is the main participant in the North African sardine (Sardina pilchardus) fishery. The canning and meal industry began in 1930 and increased rapidly after 1945 until the mid-fifties. During the sixties some problems and contraction were experienced.
The major part of the landings, caught by purse-seiners, are exported either in the form of canned sardines or fish meal and oil. Earlier work for FAO by FIDECO showed a considerable potential for domestic marketing of sardines, but there has been no further development suggesting that with a population increase of about 3% per year, the domestic demand may be higher.
The FAO project introduced CSW technology into this fishery with some success from the techological point of view.
The fish is caught by purse seiners varying considerably in size and power but there is little use of ice. If fish of sufficiently high quality is to be made available, then conversion to include CSW storage is important.
Fish is currently transported by truck to the processing plants in boxes without ice. If fish is to be transported from the ports to the provincial towns and rural areas, then there should be CSW buffer storage facilities in the port. The trucks providing the transport service should be insulated, keeping the temperature low by the use of ice. Storage facilities are needed in the provincial cities and local transport for deliveries to urban market places, retailers and rural souks.
The study includes the conversion of purse seiners to CSW storage, investment in CSW tanks on shore, the purchase of 10-t trucks for long distance deliveries, e.g., Agadir to Meknes, and, 3.5-t trucks for local deliveries.
Normal operation of traditional Agadir pursers means overnight trips to nearby fishing grounds in the region marked A on the map (Figure 5). The operational analysis for this investment study assumes that a converted purser would venture much further to relatively unexploited grounds to the south (B on map), thereby gaining opportunities of higher catch rates. As a result of improved quality through CSW storage, a much greater proportion of the catch would be suitable for marketing as fresh fish. Only a conservative estimate has been used here, with no price advantage to the vessel. The incremental priced used in this analysis are insufficient to cover the operating costs of inland distribution to total revenues to enable an integrated operation of pursers, buffer store and road vehicles to be profitable. It is assumed throughout that the CSW buffer store at Agadir can hold one day's average long-distance transport capacity.
Figure 5 Main fishing areas (Zones A, B and C) of the sardine fishery
The integrated investment comprises a total of 25 pursers modified at 5 per year, plus the optimal number of road vehicles to distribute the designated fresh portion of landings (a peak of 45 long-distance and 34 local delivery trucks). The total capital invested is about 45 million dirhams over 10 years, of which most is in vehicles: only 4.25 million dirhams is required for vessel modifications.
The financial analysis, based on the assumptions described above for prices and costs, shows that an integrated project can be viable. The financial internal rate of return (FIRR), estimated at 24.2% is highly sensitive to changes in revenues and operating costs, but not to changes in the investment cost.
In the indicative example of financing, interest rates of 12% have been used on loans in the first year borrowed over 10 years. Loans in other years have been repaid over 4 years. None of these loans has been allowed a period of grace.
The economic analysis is based upon the financial data with the following adjustments:
prices for capital goods have been adjusted by a factor of 80% to exclude the tax component;
no adjustment has been made for labour costs;
transfer payments have been eliminated.
The economic rate of return is estimated at 59% showing the market effect of high levels of taxation within the fishery.
The purse-seiner fishery in Morocco is charaterized by a complicated system of quotas, fixed prices and quality requirements favouring steady supplies to the canning industry. Any departure from this pattern will require adaptations in many areas and it is probable that prevailing conditions will constrain the activities of CSW purse seiners more than the analysis suggests. However, the rates of return and the sensitivity analyses give cause for optimism for such a project, but it is important that an integrated system with the marketing sector should be established.
The project cannot be regarded as having passed the identification “test” as there is a requirement for additional projects in two areas.
The pre-requisites for an investment project are a design study for converting purse seiners to CSW storage, and an up-to-date survey for northern Morocco to determine the market potential of fresh small pelagic fish.
Financial Unit = M.Dh 1 000
Analysis Table | Description |
---|---|
8.1 | Agadir purser; differences in costs, prices and operations between a traditional vessel and one modified for CSW stowage. |
8.2 | Operational analysis for traditional purser. |
8.3 | Operational analysis for purser modified for CSW stowage. |
8.4 | Incremental landings,costs and revenues resulting from an investment schedule to convert 25 pursers for CSW stowage over 5 years. |
8.5 | Costs for a 10 t insulated truck for long-distance operation and for a 3.5 t local delivery truck. |
8.6 | Operational analysis for inland distribution from Agadir by road, of incremental landings resulting from the fleet modification investment schedule in analysis 8.4. Calculates optimum number of trucks and utilization of both landings and transport. |
8.7 | Financial and economic analyses of costs and benefits, with sensitivity analyses. |
Length o/a | 22 m | ||||||||
Main engine power | 300 hp | ||||||||
Power used fishing(% of full) | 40% | ||||||||
Fuel consumption | 0.18 kg/hp/h | ||||||||
Steaming speed | 9.1 kn | ||||||||
Fuel capacity | 5 t | ||||||||
TJB | 55.0 | tx | |||||||
Conversion Cost, CSW Stowage | 170 M.Dh'000 | ||||||||
Capital Cost, boat | 1300 M.Dh'000 | ||||||||
nets | 325 M.Dh'000 | ||||||||
total | 1625 | ||||||||
Depreciation period | 10 yrs | ||||||||
Annual depreciation | 17.0 M.Dh'000 (CSW conversion only) | ||||||||
Operating pattern | -------- Traditional Operation --------- | -------- Operation with CSW ------- | |||||||
Stowage rate | 0.4 | t/m^3 | 0.7 | t/m^3 | |||||
Distance to fishing grounds | 7 nm | 80 nm | |||||||
Steaming time to grounds | 0.77 h | 8.75 h | |||||||
Maximum fishing time | 9.00 h | 17.00 h | |||||||
Maximum trip duration | 10.53 h | 34.50 h | |||||||
Days at sea, year 1 | 180 | 225 | |||||||
Annual trend, days at sea | -1.00% | -1.00% | |||||||
mackerel | sardine | other | tot/ave | mackerel | sardine | other | tot/ave | ||
Proportion of catch | 35.1% | 60.3% | 4.6% | 100% | 35.1% | 60.3% | 4.6% | 100% | |
Catch rate on grounds, year 1 | 0.32 | 0.54 | 0.04 | 0.90 | 0.56 | 0.96 | 0.07 | 1.59 | t/h |
Annual trend, catch rate | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -3.0% | -3.0% | -3.0% | |||
Destination; fresh | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | |||
freezing | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | |||
canning | 19.0% | 19.0% | 19.0% | 19.0% | 19.0% | 19.0% | |||
meal/oil | 70.0% | 70.0% | 70.0% | 38.0% | 38.0% | 38.0% | |||
Price to boat, year 1; fresh | 0.79 | 1.07 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 1.07 | 0.87 | M.Dh/kg | ||
freezing | 0.79 | 1.07 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 1.07 | 0.87 | M.Dh/kg | ||
canning | 0.85 | 1.07 | 0.75 | 0.85 | 1.07 | 0.75 | M.Dh/kg | ||
meal/oil | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.32 | M.Dh/kg | ||
Average price to boat; year 1 | 0.47 | 0.55 | 0.46 | 0.52 | 0.62 | 0.79 | 0.64 | 0.72 | M.Dh/kg |
Annual trend, fish prices | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |||
Price of ice | 200 | M.Dh/tonne | |||||||
Price of gasoil; year 1 | 1.90 | M.Dh/kg | |||||||
Annual trend, gasoil price | 0.0% |
Year | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Traditional operation | ||||||||||
Days at sea | 180.0 | 178.2 | 176.4 | 174.6 | 172.8 | 171.0 | 169.2 | 167.4 | 165.6 | 163.8 |
Catch rate; mackerel | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.32 |
sardine | 0.54 | 0.54 | 0.54 | 0.54 | 0.54 | 0.54 | 0.54 | 0.54 | 0.54 | 0.54 |
other | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
total | 0.90 | 0.90 | 0.90 | 0.90 | 0.90 | 0.90 | 0.90 | 0.90 | 0.90 | 0.90 |
Catch/trip, all species; tons | 8.10 | 8.10 | 8.10 | 8.10 | 8.10 | 8.10 | 8.10 | 8.10 | 8.10 | 8.10 |
Average fishing time,'trip; h | 9.00 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 9.00 |
Catch/trip, tons; mackerel | 2.84 | 2.84 | 2.84 | 2.84 | 2.84 | 2.84 | 2.84 | 2.84 | 2.84 | 2.84 |
sardine | 4.89 | 4.89 | 4.89 | 4.89 | 4.89 | 4.89 | 4.89 | 4.89 | 4.89 | 4.89 |
other | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.37 |
Average trip duration; days | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.44 |
Average number of trips | 180.0 | 178.2 | 176.4 | 174.6 | 172.8 | 171.0 | 169.2 | 167.4 | 165.6 | 163.8 |
Annual catch, tons; mackerel | 512 | 507 | 502 | 496 | 491 | 486 | 481 | 476 | 471 | 466 |
sardine | 880 | 871 | 862 | 853 | 845 | 836 | 827 | 818 | 809 | 801 |
other | 66 | 66 | 65 | 64 | 64 | 63 | 62 | 62 | 61 | 60 |
total | 1458 | 1443 | 1429 | 1414 | 1400 | 1385 | 1371 | 1356 | 1341 | 1327 |
Revenue, M.Dh '000; mackerel | 241.8 | 239.4 | 237.0 | 234.5 | 232.1 | 229.7 | 227.3 | 224.9 | 222.4 | 220.0 |
sardine | 479.4 | 474.7 | 469.9 | 465.1 | 460.3 | 455.5 | 450.7 | 445.9 | 441.1 | 436.3 |
other | 30.7 | 30.4 | 30.1 | 29.8 | 29.5 | 29.2 | 28.9 | 28.6 | 28.3 | 27.9 |
total | 751.9 | 744.4 | 736.9 | 729.4 | 721.9 | 714.4 | 706.8 | 699.3 | 691.8 | 684.3 |
Operating costs, M.Dh '000 | ||||||||||
Taxes | 61.4 | 61.4 | 61.4 | 61.4 | 61.4 | 61.4 | 61.4 | 61.4 | 61.4 | 61.4 |
CNSS | 38.3 | 38.3 | 38.3 | 38.3 | 38.3 | 38.3 | 38.3 | 38.3 | 38.3 | 38.3 |
Total,Taxes and Fees | 99.7 | 99.7 | 99.7 | 99.7 | 99.7 | 99.7 | 99.7 | 99.7 | 99.7 | 99.7 |
Fuel | 94.8 | 93.8 | 92.9 | 91.9 | 91.0 | 90.0 | 89.1 | 88.1 | 87.2 | 86.2 |
Lubricants | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.3 |
Food | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.1 |
Ice | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Miscellaneous | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
Total, Common Costs | 112.7 | 111.7 | 110.7 | 109.7 | 108.7 | 107.7 | 106.7 | 105.7 | 104.7 | 103.7 |
Crew's Share | 323.8 | 319.9 | 315.9 | 312.0 | 308.1 | 304.2 | 300.3 | 296.4 | 292.5 | 288.5 |
Repairs, maintenance | 39.0 | 52.0 | 65.0 | 78.0 | 91.0 | 104.0 | 117.0 | 130.0 | 143.0 | 156.0 |
Nets and gear | 325.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 325.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 325.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 325.0 |
Insurance | 26.0 | 23.4 | 20.8 | 18.2 | 15.6 | 13.0 | 10.4 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 2.6 |
Total, Owner's Costs | 390.0 | 75.4 | 85.8 | 421.2 | 106.6 | 117.0 | 452.4 | 137.8 | 148.2 | 483.6 |
Total Costs | 926.1 | 606.6 | 612.1 | 942.6 | 623.1 | 628.6 | 959.0 | 639.5 | 645.0 | 975.5 |
Prime de Filet | 75.2 | 74.4 | 73.7 | 72.9 | 72.2 | 71.4 | 70.7 | 69.9 | 69.2 | 68.4 |
Payment Surplus | -99.0 | 212.3 | 198.5 | -140.2 | 171.0 | 157.2 | -181.5 | 129.7 | 115.9 | -222.8 |
Total operating cost | 109.6 | 108.6 | 107.6 | 106.6 | 105.6 | 104.6 | 103.6 | 102.6 | 101.7 | 100.7 |
Year | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Operation with CSW | ||||||||||
Days at sea | 180.0 | 178.2 | 176.4 | 174.6 | 172.8 | 171.0 | 169.2 | 167.4 | 165.6 | 163.8 |
Catch rate; mackerel | 0.56 | 0.54 | 0.52 | 0.51 | 0.49 | 0.47 | 0.46 | 0.44 | 0.42 | 0.41 |
sardine | 0.96 | 0.93 | 0.90 | 0.87 | 0.84 | 0.81 | 0.79 | 0.76 | 0.73 | 0.70 |
other | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.05 |
total | 1.59 | 1.54 | 1.49 | 1.45 | 1.40 | 1.35 | 1.30 | 1.25 | 1.21 | 1.16 |
Catch/trip, all species; tons | 27.00 | 26.19 | 25.38 | 24.57 | 23.76 | 22.95 | 22.14 | 21.33 | 20.52 | 19.71 |
Average fishing time/trip; h | 17.00 | 17.00 | 17.00 | 17.00 | 17.00 | 17.00 | 17.00 | 17.00 | 17.00 | 17.00 |
Catch/trip, tons; mackerel | 9.48 | 9.19 | 8.91 | 8.63 | 8.34 | 8.06 | 7.77 | 7.49 | 7.20 | 6.92 |
sardine | 16.29 | 15.80 | 15.31 | 14.82 | 14.34 | 13.85 | 13.36 | 12.87 | 12.38 | 11.89 |
other | 1.23 | 1.19 | 1.16 | 1.12 | 1.08 | 1.05 | 1.01 | 0.97 | 0.94 | 0.90 |
Average trip duration; days | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.44 |
Average number of trips | 90.0 | 89.1 | 88.2 | 87.3 | 86.4 | 85.5 | 84.6 | 83.7 | 82.8 | 81.9 |
Annual catch, tons; mackerel | 853 | 819 | 786 | 753 | 721 | 689 | 658 | 627 | 596 | 567 |
sardine | 1466 | 1408 | 1351 | 1294 | 1239 | 1184 | 1130 | 1077 | 1025 | 974 |
other | 111 | 106 | 102 | 98 | 94 | 89 | 85 | 81 | 77 | 74 |
total | 2430 | 2334 | 2239 | 2145 | 2053 | 1962 | 1873 | 1785 | 1699 | 1614 |
Revenue, M.Dh '000; mackerel | 531.3 | 510.2 | 489.4 | 469.0 | 448.8 | 429.0 | 409.5 | 390.3 | 371.5 | 352.9 |
sardine | 1151.0 | 1105.3 | 060.3 | 1016.0 | 972.3 | 929.4 | 887.2 | 845.6 | 804.8 | 764.6 |
other | 70.7 | 67.9 | 65.1 | 62.4 | 59.7 | 57.1 | 54.5 | 51.9 | 49.4 | 47.0 |
total | 1752.9 | 1693.3 | 1614.8 | 1547.3 | 1480.9 | 1415.5 | 1351.2 | 1287.9 | 1225.6 | 1164.5 |
Operating costs, M.Dh '000 | ||||||||||
Taxes | 61.4 | 61.4 | 61.4 | 61.4 | 61.4 | 61.4 | 61.4 | 61.4 | 61.4 | 61.4 |
CNSS | 38.3 | 38.3 | 38.3 | 38.3 | 38.3 | 38.3 | 38.3 | 38.3 | 38.3 | 38.3 |
Total,Taxes and Fees | 99.7 | 99.7 | 99.7 | 99.7 | 99.7 | 99.7 | 99.7 | 99.7 | 99.7 | 99.7 |
Fuel | 224.4 | 222.1 | 219.9 | 217.7 | 215.4 | 213.2 | 210.9 | 208.7 | 206.4 | 204.2 |
Lubricants | 22.4 | 22.2 | 22.0 | 21.8 | 21.5 | 21.3 | 21.1 | 20.9 | 20.6 | 20.4 |
Food | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.1 |
Ice | 160.4 | 154.0 | 147.7 | 141.5 | 135.5 | 129.5 | 123.6 | 117.8 | 112.1 | 106.5 |
Miscellaneous | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
Total, Common Costs | 420.4 | 411.5 | 402.8 | 394.1 | 385.6 | 377.1 | 368.8 | 360.5 | 352.4 | 344.3 |
Crew's Share | 739.7 | 703.3 | 667.4 | 632.1 | 597.4 | 563.2 | 529.6 | 496.6 | 464.2 | 432.3 |
Repairs, maintenance | 39.0 | 52.0 | 65.0 | 78.0 | 91.0 | 104.0 | 117.0 | 130.0 | 143.0 | 156.0 |
Nets and gear | 325.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 325.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 325.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 325.0 |
Insurance | 26.0 | 23.4 | 20.8 | 18.2 | 15.6 | 13.0 | 10.4 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 2.6 |
Total, Owner's Costs | 390.0 | 75.4 | 85.8 | 421.2 | 106.6 | 117.0 | 452.4 | 137.8 | 148.2 | 483.6 |
Total Costs | 1649.8 | 1289.9 | 1255.7 | 1547.1 | 1189.2 | 1157.0 | 1450.5 | 1094.6 | 1064.4 | 1359.9 |
Prime de Filet | 175.3 | 168.3 | 161.5 | 154.7 | 148.1 | 141.5 | 135.1 | 128.8 | 122.6 | 116.4 |
Payment Surplus | 278.5 | 561.8 | 520.6 | 154.9 | 439.7 | 400.0 | 35.8 | 322.1 | 283.8 | -79.0 |
Total operating cost | 417.3 | 408.5 | 399.7 | 391.1 | 382.6 | 374.1 | 365.8 | 357.5 | 349.3 | 341.3 |
Year | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Shore operations; days/year | 300 | (every year) | ||||||||
Incremental Values for one vessel from using CSW | ||||||||||
Incr. Revenue | 1001 | 939 | 878 | 818 | 759 | 701 | 644 | 589 | 534 | 480 M.Dh '000 |
Incr. Operating cost | 308 | 300 | 292 | 284 | 277 | 269 | 262 | 255 | 248 | 241 M.Dh '000 |
Incr. fresh tonnes/day: mackere | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 tonnes/day |
sardine | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 tonnes/day |
other | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 tonnes/day |
Schedule for Investment Project | ||||||||||
Number of pursers converted | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | ******* | ******* | ******* | ******* | |
Incremental Revenue | 5005 | 9699 | 14089 | 18178 | 21973 | 20474 | 19001 | 17555 | 16134 M.Dh '000 | |
Incremental Operating cost | 1539 | 3038 | 4498 | 5921 | 7305 | 7114 | 6925 | 6739 | 6555 M.Dh '000 | |
Incr. fresh tonnes/day : mackerel | 5.0 | 9.8 | 14.4 | 18.7 | 22.9 | 21.8 | 20.8 | 19.7 | 18.7 tonnes/day | |
sardine | 8.6 | 16.8 | 24.7 | 32.2 | 39.3 | 37.5 | 35.7 | 33.9 | 32.2 tonnes/day | |
other | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.4 tonnes/day | |
Investment cost for CSW | 850 | 850 | 850 | 850 | 850 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -850 M.Dh '000 |
Depreciation | 85 | 170 | 255 | 340 | 425 | 425 | 425 | 425 | 425 M.Dh '000 |
Vehicle type | Long distance 10 ton (insulated) | Local 3.5 ton (not insulated) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Payload | 6.67 tons | 2.33 | ||
Round trip distance | 1500 km | 200 | ||
Round trip duration | 4 days | 1 | ||
Capital cost | 400.0 M.Dh '000 | 90 | ||
Depreciation period | 4 years | 4 | ||
Operating costs/year; M.Dh '000 | ||||
active | standby | active | standby | |
Insurance | 20.00 | 20.00 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
Road tax | 10.00 | 10.00 | 1.40 | 1.40 |
Fuel | 97.03 | 22.77 | ||
Lubricants | 9.70 | 2.28 | ||
Maintenance | 20.00 | 20.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 |
Driver | 25.00 | 18.00 | ||
Assistant driver | 15.00 | |||
Driver overnight allowance | 15.30 | |||
Ice | 23.91 | 31.87 | ||
Total | 235.94 | 50.00 | 85.82 | 10.90 |
Fuel price | 3.45 | M.Dh/litre | ||
Fuel consumption | 25.00 | litres/100km | 11.00 | |
Ice price | 200 | M.Dh/ton |
Year | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Shore operations; days/year | 300 | (every year) | ||||||||
Ave landed/day, tons; mackerel | 5.00 | 9.79 | 14.36 | 18.72 | 22.87 | 21.81 | 20.76 | 19.74 | 18.73 | |
sardine | 8.60 | 16.83 | 24.68 | 32.17 | 39.30 | 37.48 | 35.69 | 33.92 | 32.19 | |
other | 0.65 | 1.27 | 1.86 | 2.43 | 2.97 | 2.83 | 2.70 | 2.56 | 2.43 | |
Transport reqd/day; tons | 14.26 | 26.62 | 39.04 | 50.89 | 62.17 | 59.29 | 56.45 | 53.66 | 50.92 | |
Long distance trucks/day; optimum | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | |
selected | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | |
Long distance trucks required; active | 12 | 16 | 24 | 32 | 40 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 32 | |
Long distance trucks required; standby | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | |
Number of long distance trucks purchased | 14 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 23 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 19 | |
Local delivery vehicles required: active | 9 | 12 | 18 | 24 | 30 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 24 | |
Local delivery vehicles required: standby | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
Local delivery vehicles purchased; | 10 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 14 | |
CSW buffer store; tons | 20 | 27 | 40 | 53 | 67 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 53 | |
Ave transported/day to inland markets | 12.18 | 18.72 | 27.85 | 36.83 | 45.17 | 41.96 | 41.23 | 40.47 | 36.84 | |
mackerel | 4.27 | 6.88 | 10.24 | 13.55 | 16.80 | 15.43 | 15.16 | 14.89 | 13.55 | |
sardine | 7.35 | 11.83 | 17.60 | 23.28 | 28.87 | 26.52 | 26.06 | 25.58 | 23.29 | |
other | 0.55 | 0.89 | 1.33 | 1.76 | 2.18 | 2.00 | 1.97 | 1.93 | 1.76 | |
Ave transported/year to inland markets;t | 3653 | 5883 | 8753 | 11577 | 14355 | 13188 | 12959 | 12720 | 11579 | |
Incremental prices; mackerel | 0.50 | M.Dh/kg | (Inland market v fish meal) | |||||||
sardine | 0.50 | M.Dh/kg | M.Dh '000 | |||||||
other | 1.00 | M.Dh/kg | ||||||||
Incremental revenue;mackerel | 641 | 1033 | 1536 | 2032 | 2520 | 2315 | 2275 | 2233 | 2032 | |
sardine | 1102 | 1775 | 2641 | 3492 | 4331 | 3979 | 3910 | 3838 | 3493 | |
other | 83 | 134 | 199 | 264 | 327 | 301 | 295 | 290 | 264 | |
total | 1826 | 2941 | 4376 | 5789 | 7177 | 6594 | 6480 | 6360 | 5789 | |
Operating cost, all vehicles | 3715 | 4905 | 7357 | 9810 | 12262 | 11011 | 11011 | 11011 | 9810 | |
CSW buffer | 128 | 203 | 302 | 400 | 496 | 456 | 448 | 439 | 400 | |
Investment cost, all vehicles | 6500 | 1960 | 4140 | 4230 | 10730 | 0 | 4140 | 4230 | -935 | |
CSW buffer | 1000 | |||||||||
Depreciation, all vehicles | 1503 | 1970 | 2905 | 3840 | 4775 | 4308 | 4308 | 4308 | 3840 |
Year | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. Cash Inflow | ||||||||||
Incremental Revenue;fleet | 5005 | 9699 | 14089 | 18178 | 21973 | 20474 | 19001 | 17555 | 16134 | |
ashore | 1826 | 2941 | 4376 | 5788 | 7177 | 6594 | 6480 | 6360 | 5789 | |
Total Inflow | 6831 | 12641 | 18465 | 23967 | 29151 | 27068 | 25481 | 23915 | 21924 | |
2. Cash Outflow | ||||||||||
Incremental Operating cost | ||||||||||
Fleet | 1539 | 3038 | 4498 | 5921 | 7305 | 7114 | 6925 | 6739 | 6555 | |
Trucks | 3715 | 4905 | 7357 | 9810 | 12262 | 11011 | 11011 | 11011 | 9810 | |
CSW buffer store | 128 | 203 | 302 | 400 | 496 | 456 | 448 | 439 | 400 | |
Sub-total Operating cost | 5381 | 8146 | 12158 | 16131 | 20064 | 18581 | 18384 | 18189 | 16765 | |
Investment Cost | ||||||||||
Fleet | 850 | 850 | 850 | 850 | 850 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -850 |
Trucks | 6500 | 1960 | 4140 | 4230 | 10730 | 0 | 4140 | 4230 | -935 | |
CSW buffer store | 1000 | |||||||||
Sub-total Investment Cost | 1850 | 7350 | 2810 | 4990 | 5080 | 10730 | 0 | 4140 | 4230 | -1785 |
Total Outflow | 1850 | 12731 | 10956 | 17148 | 21211 | 30794 | 18581 | 22524 | 22419 | 14980 |
3. Net Benefit Before Financing | -1850 | -5900 | 1685 | 1317 | 2756 | -1643 | 8487 | 2957 | 1495 | 6944 |
Financing (indicative example) | ||||||||||
Loan | 15000 | 12500 | 12500 | |||||||
Borrower's Contribution | 5000 | 3000 | 3000 | |||||||
Repayment on Principal | 855 | 2925 | 5244 | 5873 | 6578 | 7367 | 4783 | 1890 | 2116 | 2370 |
Interest Payment | 1800 | 3197 | 4346 | 3717 | 3012 | 2223 | 1339 | 765 | 538 | 284 |
Net Financing | 17345 | 9378 | 5910 | -9590 | -9590 | -9590 | -6122 | -2655 | -2655 | -2655 |
Net Cash Flow; annual | 15495 | 3478 | 7595 | -8273 | -6834 | -11233 | 2365 | 302 | -1159 | 4289 |
cumulative | 15495 | 18973 | 26568 | 18295 | 11461 | 228 | 2593 | 2895 | 1736 | 6025 |
Internal Rate of Return | Financial: | 24.2% | Economic: | 59.0% | ||||||
Sensitivity Analysis | Switching Values | Switching Values | ||||||||
Variations of:- | IRR | at 10.0% | IRR | at 10.0% | ||||||
by:- | by:- | |||||||||
Investment Cost | 10.0% | 17.0% | 21.3% | 10.0% | 51.1% | 88.4% | ||||
Operating Cost | 10.0% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 44.4% | 28.2% | ||||
Revenue | -10.0% | -5.9% | -5.3% | -10.0% | 34.0% | -17.6% |