The previous sections have shown that imports of frozen mackerel have had a significant impact on the market for fish in Zimbabwe. They have, however, not had a noticeable negative impact on the demand for fish and fish products including locally produced products. Overall, the impact should be considered to be positive for the consumer, as the increasing prices of beef and poultry means that consumers can buy less and less of these, and without fish, would experience less animal protein in their diets. Imports of mackerel have also had, in general, a positive effect on consumer attitudes towards fresh and frozen fish as it has become a more familiar sight. The impact of frozen mackerel is mostly seen in areas where shops have refrigeration facilities and is thus limited to urban areas and rural growth points. Many urban consumers who were interviewed felt that they were eating “enough” mackerel, which seems to indicate that people will eat so much mackerel a month, but no more as they also want some variety in their diet. The possibilities for further expansion in the market therefore lie with those urban consumers currently not buying significant amounts of mackerel, and the rural market. The constraint for the expansion of the latter market is lack of refrigeration.
Imports of other frozen and fresh fish have had a negligible impact on the market for fish in Zimbabwe, mainly because most of these products are of high value and therefore affordable by only a small percentage of the population. Within this section of the population however, the impact has in general been positive. Wholesalers and retailers reported that imports have not had any significant impact on the sales of locally produced fish.
To date, imports of dried kapenta from Lake Cahora Bassa in Mozambique have not had any perceptible impact on the local dried kapenta trade. Conflicting information about the quantities, quality and price of the Mozambique kapenta makes it difficult to assess the future likely impact. From the perspective of national demand, the market appears to be able to absorb limited amounts of kapenta, provided prices do not rise as more and more people are unable to afford meat. A reduction in the price of kapenta will also increase sales as demand is very price sensitive. Sales are also being assisted by the increase in beef and chicken prices. It is not possible to assess the likely impact of a price cut in kapenta on local kapenta producers as there are not sufficient data available on the costs and earning structure of the industry. The margins between wholesaler and retailer prices indicate that some producers might be able to absorb a price reduction, but this might not be true for all producers.
Imports of dried mackerel appear to have had little impact on the market in Zimbabwe, and where there has been some impact, it has tended to be negative because the product was of poor quality and people were uncertain on ways to prepare the product. Scope for expansion exists in the rural and peri-urban areas where refrigeration facilities are limited. However, dried mackerel is in the same price bracket as dried kapenta and lacks many of the advantages (small size, easy to divide, familiarity). In the short term, expansion of this market appears limited unless there is a price reduction and a strong marketing campaign to teach people how to prepare and cook fish.
