With the exception of the postal questionnaire, all the methodology used for the study was effective, measured in terms of acquiring the information to fulfil the terms of reference. The consumer survey was sufficiently short to acquire valuable information without taking up too much time. The market researchers also found the form user-friendly and familiarised themselves with the coding system quickly.
With regards to the postal questionnaire, one of the reasons for using such a method was to assess it's effectiveness in Zimbabwe. Comparing results with postal surveys in other countries, the percentage (21%) of returns was high. However, as the total number of questionnaires sent was only 187 and included some companies no longer trading or not involved in fish marketing, the number of returns was not sufficient. It can therefore be concluded that the result were poor and was not an effective method for such a study.
Attempts were made to cover as many areas of Zimbabwe within the resources of the study. Coverage of urban consumers and rural consumers based at growth points and centres is considered adequate, but greater coverage of rural areas where there were no shops. However, this would have required a lot more time and other resources.
The results from each of the methods used in the study are reasonably consistent enabling a good picture of the current trends in the market for fish in Zimbabwe. It is clear that the market has changed drastically over the last two years and there are strong indications that it is still changing expanding. this is due to a greater variety of imports in the country and increases in the prices of more traditionally consumed animal proteins. These changes have positive and negative effects on local fish production and should be monitored. It is therefore recommended that, at the end of 1995, a brief review of the market situation and current trends is carried out.
Per capita fish consumption estimates indicate that there has been a more than doubling of per capita fish consumption from 2.66 kg in 1992 to an estimated 6.35 kg in 1994. This a significant increase and has been attributed to the increase in imported cheap fish, in particular, frozen horse mackerel from Namibia. This fish consumption has increased more in the urban and peri-urban areas and much less in rural areas where there are no shops with refrigeration facilities.
According to the results of the study, horse mackerel now dominates the low to middle income market for fish. The fish is found in all major supermarkets and retail food outlets. Supplies are regular and demand buoyant, largely because the fish is so cheap.
Dried kapenta is the second most consumed fish in the rural areas and third most consumed fish in the urban areas. Most of the supplies come from Lake Kariba with very small quantities currently being imported from Mozambique, Tanzania and Zambia. Consumption is higher in the rural areas where there is little other choice of animal protein, especially in areas where shops do not have refrigeration facilities. Price and taste are the main reasons for buying kapenta.
From the results of the study it can be concluded that dried kapenta is considered a staple food by many people, but price restricts wider and more frequent consumption as most consumers reported buying it only once a month. If prices continue to rise for kapenta, people will continue to buy it, but in smaller quantities.
Fresh\frozen bream consumption is affected by erratic supplies to the low, middle and high income markets. Despite this, according to the study, it is the second most consumed fish in urban areas and third most consumed fish in rural areas. People like the taste of bream and it is a preferred fish for many low to medium income consumers, if the price was not so high. In some rural areas, around small reservoirs, bream is caught and sold locally and at a lower price which might explain why it is one of the most commonly consumed fish in rural areas. The results of the study therefore indicate that the market potential for bream is very good, provided prices are competitive with other cheap protein and are lower that beef or chicken. The implications of this conclusion for the future development of bream farming in Zimbabwe is the potential is good, provided production costs can be kept low.
Other fish and fish products such as frozen kapenta, tinned fish and dried horse mackerel were bought by few of the respondents. It can be concluded that they make a small contribution to overall fish supply and demand. When dried mackerel was first imported into Zimbabwe, many people felt that it would affect sales of dried kapenta. This has not been the case and there were only very few consumers who bought dried mackerel. retailers and wholesalers indicated that low consumption was because people were unsure about preparation, found it expensive, and because the first imported product was of poor quality. This situation might change if a more aggressive marketing campaign is pursued by importers.
An increased number of high value fish and fish products are also appearing in the market and are, according to wholesales, selling well. However, this market is small and tends to be concentrated in high income urban areas. Medium income consumers are also buying the cheaper, imported fish products such as fish fingers, kippers and fish cakes.
As beef prices are increasing, substitute for lower value fish are limited to vegetables, beans, cheaper meats and offal. Although beef, and to a lesser extent chicken, are the preferred protein source, they are becoming too expensive for the majority of the population. It can be concluded that, apart from the higher value fish, fish is no longer a substitute for beef or, to a lesser extent, chicken. The implication of this is that, should low value fish no longer be available, people would buy more vegetables and beans, Thus, the low value fish is providing an important source of protein to consumers who are unable to afford other animal proteins in significant quantities. Whilst the most important supply of low value fish is from Namibia, the potential for expansion of the production of low cost fish from aquaculture is very favourable.
With regard to the impact of imports on local suppliers of fish, it is concluded that, overall, the effect has, so far, been positive. People are buying more fish so that it is becoming a familiar part of the Zimbabwean diet. In general, the markets for locally produced fish do not appear to have been negatively affected - these markets are strong also because the price of other protein sources, particulary beef and chicken, are increasing. It is difficult to predict the potential impact of kapenta from Lake Cahora Bassa in Mozambique as there have, to date, been very small quantities imported. However, the study results indicate that if these imports come in sufficient quantities at a lower price than local kapenta the market seems able to absorb it. It is not possible to predict the effect on the viability of the local kapenta industry as insufficient information is available on costs and earnings in that industry.
Finally, it can be concluded that in the immediate future, the market for fish and fish products appears good though unstable, as it is experiencing many changes. The study has shown that the fish purchasing pattern for the majority of the population are largely driven by price and availability and are remarkably similar throughout the areas sampled. the results imply that demand can be stimulated for new fish species, provided it is cheap, taking into account that most Zimbabwean consumers have to give price and availability rather than taste, a priority.
