FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report 10/96

SOMALIA

BACKGROUND INFORMATION

Area: 627 000 sq.km
Climate: Semi-arid in the south; rest arid
Population: 6.7 million (1996 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: U.S.$ 120 (1990)
Specific characteristics of the country: Low-income food-deficit country
Logistics: Inadequate port facilities; serious shortage of fuel and spare parts
Major foodcrops: Maize, sorghum, sesame
Marketing year: September/August; Lean season: June-August
Share of cereals in total calorie intake: 45 percent

CURRENT SITUATION

A recent FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission forecast the 1996 Gu season cereal crop at 243 000 tons from 492 000 hectares planted. This is some 48 percent higher than the 1995 Gu cereal crop but 37 percent less than the average of the 1982-88 pre-civil war years. The national crop has benefited greatly from a marked improvement in the cereal output from the important Bay region and from the Northwest which, together, account for half of the country’s production. Other regions have seen a sharp fall in production due to drought, insect damage and/or flooding (particularly of the Juba river). Gedo, Lower Juba and Hiran are all well down on last year and are expected to experience severe food deficits in the months ahead.

The 1996/97 Der crop is tentatively forecast at 105 000 tons so that total cereal production in the 1996/97 marketing year should be 348 000 tons, which would be 203 000 tons short of expected normal consumption including a small build up of stocks. Even if Mogadishu and Kismayo ports remain closed, commercial imports are forecast to continue rising during the year to an annual net import of 160 000 tons of cereals (mostly rice and wheat). The remaining 43 000 tons needs to be covered by food aid. Emergency food aid for those areas affected by floods and poor rainfed crops, and where the purchasing power of the people is inadequate to meet high prices is estimated at 19 000 tons while 24 000 tons are required as programme food aid. There is great scope for the judicious use of food aid to support the rehabilitation of flood control and irrigation schemes, and the provision of agricultural inputs, through monetisation and food for work schemes.

Despite the anticipated improvement in food supplies over last year, the food situation in Somalia is still precarious. The Gu harvest has been reduced in several areas, the country is highly dependent on maintaining high levels of commercial imports, and a continued improvement in security is necessary to ensure that food can be transferred from surplus to deficit areas.

The food situation is anticipated to be particularly critical in the Lower Juba Region where, after two consecutive poor harvests, stocks were depleted by April 1996 when significant numbers moved west into Kenya. This year’s Gu harvest is only half last year’s poor level and will be barely sufficient for two months of normal food consumption. Commercial grain imports to the area from other regions will be difficult due to insecurity and, in any event, the purchasing power of the affected population is extremely low. Severe food deficits are also anticipated in the Hiran and Gedo Regions. Cereal production in these regions declined by 54 percent and 37 percent respectively from the reduced levels of 1995, and are not expected to cover more than two to three months of normal consumption. Although livestock is more important in these Regions than in the Lower Juba valley, several groups of the population are vulnerable, particularly those in urban areas and those without livestock and other assets. In Mogadishu, where large numbers of people are unemployed and vulnerable, the food situation could deteriorate if food prices rise in the next few months.