FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report 10/96

SOUTH AFRICA

BACKGROUND INFORMATION

Area: 1.22 million sq.km
Climate: Sub-tropical with rains concentrated in the summer months (November-April); occasional snow in winter over higher parts of plateau and Cape ranges; an average of 120 days frost in the interior plateau
Population: 40.55 million (1995 estimate); GNP per caput U.S.$ 3 010 (1994)
Specific characteristics of the country: Normally net food exporter, notably maize
Logistics: Adequate port, rail and road facilities
Major foodcrops: Maize, wheat
Marketing year: May/April; Lean season: February-April
Share of cereals in total calorie intake: 54 percent

CURRENT SITUATION

The harvesting of coarse grains is virtually complete in most areas. Recent official estimates put the crop at some 11 million tons, including 10 million tons of maize, more than double last year’s production. Higher production is attributed to increased planting and favourable growing conditions. As a result of excellent rainfall, an output of 2.4 million tons of 1996 winter wheat is anticipated, compared to 2.1 tons in 1995.

Due to a substantial increase in production, the food supply situation in 1996/97 is expected to improve substantially. At the forecast level, the country is expected to meet its domestic requirements and export a substantial amount of cereals during the season. Maize trade was deregulated in May and private traders were allowed to export up to 2.2 million tons this season. Export permits have already been issued for some 1.6 million tons. The government anticipates total maize exports of about 2.5 million tons but, given high world prices and global shortages of maize, some observers are concerned that export volumes may be much larger and create a shortage in the domestic market, pushing up the price of maize and leading to imports later in the season.